AUSTIN | Projects & Construction II

[AustinGuy]

Originally Posted by tuffaso

Will most be investors or seasonal folks like in Miami? Miami is obviously more of a "resort" town than Austin so I would assume Austin will be more of a mixture of local owners, some investors, and maybe some part-time owners (like entertainment types from the west coast for example).

These new downtown projects really don't pencil out from an investment standpoint if you aren't just banking on appreciation. The typical thinking is that the rents will be around $2/sq ft based on AMLI I rents.

$2/sq ft won't come close to covering payments+taxes+condo fee on most of these units, and the supply of rental condos is slated to increase quite a bit with all AMLI 2, Monarch, and the other luxury rental projects coming online in the next year or so. Plus, private investors renting out individual units in new projects will also bring on more rental supply. All this supply means it will be difficult to keep that $2/sq ft rental rate unless demand really picks up along with the new projects opening.

[MichaelB]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

NO DOUBT a large majority of shuttered places are snow birds from the Northeast or from Latin American business folks, etc...

The oddi thing is I expect most folks desire to live in a highrise to partake in an urban scene/vibrant environment... its so odd to have hundreds of highrises with NO urban scene, people on the streets, or entertainment/shopping on the streets.... just a really bad vibe.

Yeah.... I remeber that empty "vibe". It's like summer around UT!

[jgouger]

Originally Posted by MichaelB

Yeah.... I remeber that empty "vibe". It's like summer around UT!

I really wonder about the supply exceeding the demand in Miami though. I was there in March and the construction is incredible there! There must be at least 50+ buildings under construction right now. Of all of the projects in Miami, the most successful will be the Metropolitan Miami (http://www.metropolitanmiami.com). Its a VMUD on Biscayne Bay that will feature the tallest building in Miami for now at 900+', have a 45k Sq Ft Whole Foods, Shaq Sport 24 Hour Fitness, a mall with a movie theather, hotel, and office space.

Although the conversation about Miami does bring up an interesting point, Miami and Las Vegas are both experiencing a "Manhattanization" where the skyline is going vertical at an astonishing pace. One really has to wonder if Austin will experience it next. John Kelso from The Statesman will have a field day with that if it happens.....

[Saddle Man]

John Kelso is a hack.

[MarkyPants2023]

Originally Posted by MichaelB

I am in no way diagreeing with you.... used to live downthere myself...and you are right about the glut and the type of investor....but how many of those "shuttered" condo's because of the seasonal folks? (ie "snowbirds")

I've heard that a lot of people in south florida are trying to sell but realize they can't get hardly anything compared to what they think they deserve so they are boarding them up for a couple years and will try again then. I heard this from a guy in the construction industry based in Tampa

[Strayone]

^I sometimes will read his article if the title looks interesting, and I often don't finish it or if I do it leaves me thinking I wasted my time. He did write a good story back when the Frost Tower was first proposed, in it he described the crown as looking like a place where one of Batman's rivals would live, it was the first time I saw a picture of the building and I nearly pissed my pants!

[armywrestler]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Oh, and that date was for The Austonian, not 501 Congress/T. Stacy tower.

That is fine. Just judging from current sketches/graphics, I think the Austonian will be the crown jewel of the skyline (if it looks like the pic) until something else is built to out-do it. Hope that is the trend. Maybe the Frost Tower was our lucky charm.

[andrew.A..T..X]

Originally Posted by armywrestler

That is fine. Just judging from current sketches/graphics, I think the Austonian will be the crown jewel of the skyline (if it looks like the pic) until something else is built to out-do it. Hope that is the trend. Maybe the Frost Tower was our lucky charm.

Im not sure, t stacys tower will most likely be taller, but they are both very distinct buildings. The 360 might look out of place once its done, but all of the other buildings will eventually fill in that open space.

[crewer]

Originally Posted by AllBusiness

I was wondering if any of you more knowledgeable board members could share with me what other major cities they could be referring to. Are there any good reads that document the high-end residential gluts that took place? I can only imagine that all of their local real estate "experts" predicted that the demand would remain strong at the time.

Washington, DC
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
San Diego
Las Vegas
Boston
Chicago
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Miami
Fort Lauderdale
Tampa
..to name a few.

Speculative buying has run rampant in this country, making it extremely difficult for city planners and developers to gauge the true housing demand until it's too late. When developers and speculators push housing prices beyond sustainable levels, you're going to have a glut.

Could that happen in downtown Austin? Of course it could.

[armywrestler]

Originally Posted by andrew.A..T..X

Im not sure, t stacys tower will most likely be taller, but they are both very distinct buildings. The 360 might look out of place once its done, but all of the other buildings will eventually fill in that open space.

I'll be glad to see a denser and taller skyline for Austin. Wichever gets erected first. I agree about 360. IMO, it's not a great design. I'm hoping the rendering was just poorly done. It might be a sore thumb. I'll have to wait and see. I'm just happy that so much developement is happening at once.

[andrew.A..T..X]

Originally Posted by armywrestler

I'll be glad to see a denser and taller skyline for Austin. Wichever gets erected first. I agree about 360. IMO, it's not a great design. I'm hoping the rendering was just poorly done. It might be a sore thumb. I'll have to wait and see. I'm just happy that so much developement is happening at once.

I agree, but i think that it will look better then the rendering showed. It was just a drawing so mabye it was a little off. Austin's skyline has always been in a relatively straight line from south to north up to the UT tower, but now these all of these new buildings will strech out a little bit.

[Owlhorn]

Originally Posted by tuffaso

Sorry, didn't mean to stir things up. You are 100% correct. There are many great projects in Big D, S.A. and Houston, it just seems that Austin is in the lead right now in terms of the number and height of the proposed projects compared to what is already in the CBD. That of course could change if some of these Austin proposals never get built.

There is 1 600ftr u/c in Dallas and 3 more possible downtown that are in the same stage as some of your taller proposals. They simply won't have quite the impact on Dallas' skyline vertically, since its already tall, but there are enough projects that Dallas will come out of this boom with a significantly stretched skyline horizontally. I couldn't compare numbers to numbers, but one would be hard pressed to say Austin is seeing more development than the inner-city areas of Dallas.



and this is just the beginning.

[KevinFromTexas]

Badass pano there. Which one is the Mardarin Oriental Hotel & Residences?

Yeah, as I recall Dallas is in the running for a new convention center hotel. The latest height I had seen was 530 feet, making it atleast the 2nd tallest convention center hotel in the state, and one of the top 5 tallest hotels in Texas.

[LiveattheOasis]

See I am under the impression that Marriott would do wonders for themselves by building a taller impressive hotel in Austin, it would stick out because of Austin's relative size and the city itself is on a strong boom. It would definitely be one of their more notable buildings. But then of course I am biased ...

[Strayone]

Here are a couple images from the 360 camera, the first is from Monday the 11th, it is the 24th floor and the second is today's picture of the 25th floor, meaning the actual cement decking or flooring. This was one of the fastest floors I've seen added to the building. The glass is being installed fairly fast as well. I hope they keep this pace going and if they do it looks like mid to late September the building would topout, which is just a little under 3 months from now. I sure do like this camera and would like some of the proposed projects like The Austonian to provide one when they get started.

[eburress]

There are definitely more projects going up in Dallas but like someone else mentioned, Austin's will have a bigger [vertical] impact.

I was actually in Austin during the week, and it was exciting to see all the new projects going up. Hopefully all of the other, proposed towers will happen as well.

[KevinFromTexas]

I think about 5 more floors and they'll need to raise the crane again. By the way, the crane is showing up on the horizon here in South Austin, even from one spot in our neighborhood. I think about 8 more floors and the building itself will start to show up on the skyline there. So a little more than a month maybe, and it'll be visible there.

[AustinGuy]

Originally Posted by Strayone

Here are a couple images from the 360 camera, the first is from Monday the 11th, it is the 24th floor and the second is today's picture of the 25th floor, meaning the actual cement decking or flooring.

Thanks! Looks like my unit has finally been glassed in. I guess I can rest easy now that it is safe from all the elements. At the rate they are building, I imagine they are still on track for my March move-in date. At least I hope so.

[Owlhorn]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Badass pano there. Which one is the Mardarin Oriental Hotel & Residences?

Yeah, as I recall Dallas is in the running for a new convention center hotel. The latest height I had seen was 530 feet, making it atleast the 2nd tallest convention center hotel in the state, and one of the top 5 tallest hotels in Texas.

The Mandarin is the first set of tower cranes on the left right in front of the AAC.

We've not heard much from the convention center hotel. Too much Dallas politics. Hopefully the new mayor can straighten up some of this ridiculousness.

[ivanwolf]

Did some photo tours in the last couple of weeks so I thought I would share.

KevinFromTexas here is your parking garage in the campus area along with some pics of the buildings.












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