Quote:
Originally Posted by crewer
Glad you mentioned this. I almost submitted a topic last night to get some dialogue going on where prices are projected to go for downtown housing. While visiting Austin several weeks ago, I spoke with a friend who was enthusiastically looking into purchasing one of the new units in either Spring or 360. He told me that a friend of his had purchased a condo in Milago and that it had doubled in value since purchasing it. I expressed doubt, but he was convinced. He spoke with the same excitement that I was hearing from people here in DC several years ago. Of course you should read what's happening now in DC in this New York Times article.
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I think most people who bought at Milago paid in the range of $275 per sq ft. A few people who got in very early paid a lot less than that, but I don't know the price. I'll ask my friend who was one of the first buyers how much he paid.
If your friend talked to one of the very early buyers, I could see how that person could be sitting on $50-75K of equity based on the price the developer sold the remaining condos. I doubt that they doubled in value.
A quick look on MLS (Multiple Listing Service, not Major League Soccer

), shows a few condos for sale in the $370+ per sq ft. range. A lot of these condos have been on the market for a long time. A post a few months ago noted that there were over 40 Milago condos listed for sale.
The prices of the first two condos in MLS are $280,000 (756 sq ft) and $299,900 (756 sq ft). I think the price is different because of the floor level and view. For these condos to have doubled in value, the original price would have to have been about $150,000. I know for a fact they didn't sell for that low. If they did, they would have sold out in 24 hours.
I just don't see how a speculator can buy a condo at $275 per sq ft and expect to sell it a few months later for $375 per sq ft without adding any value to the property. Most of the people I know who have made money on flips have done a lot of work to the property to increase its perceived value.
360 and Spring will probably be very good properties to live in if you really want to live downtown. They will most likely increase in value over time, but not at rates seen over the past few years. A good indicator would be the newer condo developments built since 2000.
Tell your friend to look at Brazos Lofts, Avenue Lofts, and Plaza Lofts. They were the first phase of new condo development downtown. I doubt that they doubled in value. When I have time, I'll try to dig up information on this.
The only reason the Railyard has gone up so much is because you really can't touch anything downtown for less then $300,000 unless it is an older property. Most people can't afford to spend that much but still want to live downtown. You can buy into the Railyard for between $180,000 and $280,000. Not bad if you want to live in a good location in downtown Austin.
For the non-locals, if you want to look at the prices of downtown real estate, check out austinhomesearch.com and search on zip code 78701.