I would say once again that the state demographers are right and Utah has actually broken the 2.6 million mark and is at a 2.6 and higher growth rate for the past year. They have challenged the Census Bureau several times as of late and proven correct every time.
Utah ranks 6th in U.S. with 2.4% growth rate
By Deborah Bulkeley
Deseret Morning News
With a one-year growth rate of 2.4 percent, Utah is the sixth-fastest-growing state, with a population of 2.55 million, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Deseret Morning News graphic Utah's population still exceeds Nevada's, but barely, according to the estimates, which show Nevada's population at just under 2.5 million. And Arizona has surpassed Nevada as the nation's fastest-growing state with a growth rate of 3.6 percent.
"What the data shows to me is Utah continues to be one of the fastest-growing states in the nation," said Robert Spendlove, the state's top demographer. "We've been in the top 10 for the past several years. ... Utah is at the center of a dynamic area of the country."
However, Spendlove and other demographers believe the Census Bureau is undercounting Utah's population by about 65,000 people.
The Utah Population Estimates Committee contends the state's population broke 2.6 million people this year, with a growth rate of 2.7 percent, said Spendlove, manager of demographic and economic analysis for the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.
The state now has six months to decide whether to become the first state to officially challenge the census estimates, Spendlove said. He is encouraged that the population gap between state and federal estimates has lowered from 3.2 percent last year to 2.6 percent this year.
"They are still different, but the difference has narrowed," Spendlove said. "One of the reasons it has narrowed ... is migration is much closer to what we think migration should be for the year 2006."
It's important for the census estimates to be accurate, in part because they're tied to federal funding in areas such as transportation and health care, Spendlove said.
If there is a disagreement about the population count, it's common for cities and counties to submit challenges, but Spendlove said it is difficult for small areas, and yearly local challenges can become tedious.
"The theory is that if the state can essentially act in the interest of all areas within the state to ensure all the estimates are the best they can be, it would take the burden off some of our local areas," Spendlove said.
Provo has spent about 40 work hours on three successful challenges to its census estimates, said Gary McGinn, director of community development for Provo.
The city would appreciate the help from the state but would still want to make sure it agrees with the state estimates, he said.
"An accurate picture of what's happening in your city... is invaluable to have," he said. "It really does affect the distribution of tax moneys."
The growth estimates released Friday are based on state estimates for 2005 that were revised after several Utah cities challenged their census estimates. The 2005 estimate was boosted by more than 20,000 people to 2.49 million.
That boost is part of the reason why the population gap is closing. Another is that the Census Bureau has seen more domestic migration to Utah, said Greg Harper, a demographer for the U.S. Census Bureau.
"It could just be that our method is catching trends they saw previously," Harper said.
Utah demographers have long believed the Census Bureau is undercounting migration into Utah. Following local challenges, the Census Bureau doubled its estimate for Utah's gain from migration from 13,000 to 31,000, Spendlove said. That number is still below the state's estimate of 40,000 people.
The migration estimates are closer this year than in the past, but the census' estimate of births is off from the state's by about 3,415, said Pamela Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
"We hit record births again this year," Perlich said. "They are still underestimating us."
Perlich added that both the state and federal estimates are likely undercounting migration into the state this year.
The census estimates for 2006 show that Utah gained more people through domestic migration than international, unlike prior years. However, Perlich said much of Utah's domestic migration comes from California, with people who were originally from Latin America.
"We get a lot of our foreign-born population from California. That's the circuit they are coming through," she said. "That doesn't mean they are native born."