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  #101  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 8:10 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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What you fail to take in consideration in the equation is the very high inflation in the US, which has inflated the US GDP, but has not been reflected in exchange rates, which is a de facto devaluation by the renminbi. Real GDP growth figures don't lie.
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  #102  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 8:19 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
What you fail to take in consideration in the equation is the very high inflation in the US, which has inflated the US GDP, but has not been reflected in exchange rates, which is a de facto devaluation by the renminbi. Real GDP growth figures don't lie.
No... U.S. inflation was normal until after COVID supply chain disruptions in 2020.
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  #103  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 8:31 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Germaine to the topic of this thread, here is some guy's list of the current Top 10 finance cities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xioLA8YKwqc

1. New York City
2. Singapore
3. London
4. Chicago
5. Switzerland (combined)
6. Hong Kong
7. Shanghai
8. Sydney
9. Miami
10.Toronto

He argues that Hong Kong and Singapore have essentially switched places in the last 10 years as China has cracked down on Hong Kong.

And let me propose this question to this forum - if you have $100,000 to place in a savings account or to invest, are you really going to trust all of it to a bank in mainland China?

It's also important to note that 9 of the 10 cities listed are former British colonies. England figured out the necessary accounting and regulations to run an overseas empire over 100 years ago.

China is building solar panels and electric cars but.....do they do proper accounting? No, everything they report has to be interpreted - financial, population, everything. The centuries-old habit of lying and scheming is holding the place back to this day.
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  #104  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 9:00 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
No... U.S. inflation was normal until after COVID supply chain disruptions in 2020.
Sigh...

2010-2019, yearly average:



2020-2026, yearly average:



The higher US inflation in the 2020s had not been reflected in the exchange rates (the US dollar has remained high despite a higher inflation in the US than in either Europe or China), which largely explains the currently inflated US GDP when compared to European and Chinese GDP. When the US dollar falls, as it will inevitably eventually, European and Chinese GDPs will suddenly be much higher compared to US GDP. It happened many times before.
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  #105  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 10:04 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Sigh...

2010-2019, yearly average:



2020-2026, yearly average:



The higher US inflation in the 2020s had not been reflected in the exchange rates (the US dollar has remained high despite a higher inflation in the US than in either Europe or China), which largely explains the currently inflated US GDP when compared to European and Chinese GDP. When the US dollar falls, as it will inevitably eventually, European and Chinese GDPs will suddenly be much higher compared to US GDP. It happened many times before.
China's growth relative to the US economy was slowing prior to 2020. Between 2010 and 2015, China added 20% of US GDP, but between 2015 and 2020, China only added 9%.
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  #106  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2026, 11:54 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
When the US dollar falls, as it will inevitably eventually,
The USD did fall relative to the EUR. Growth was still much stronger. Now the EUR is falling relative to the USD. Growth will still likely be much stronger. USD and EUR overall have been close to parity for a long time. It has been ages since I didn't just compute them 1:1 when traveling.
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  #107  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:39 AM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Also, the U.S. economy is uniquely domestic, as a percentage:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-GDP_ratio

There is a ton of foreign trade, obviously, but the overall economy is so gigantic that it constitutes a relatively small percentage.
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  #108  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:51 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
USD and EUR overall have been close to parity for a long time. It has been ages since I didn't just compute them 1:1 when traveling.
The USD is currently largely overvalued (for various reasons). If the exchange rate reflected the actual cost of things (how much does it cost to buy a Big Mac, get a hair cut, rent a 2 bedroom flat in the city center, etc) then:
- compared to France: 1 € should be worth 1.55 USD (current exchange rate is 1.12 USD)
- compared to Germany: 1 € should be worth 1.39 USD
- compared to China: 1 USD should be worth 3.28 RMB (market exchange rate is currently 6.70 RMB)

The gap between the purchasing power of the USD and the market exchange rates has become quite large. Such a gap cannot last forever. Something will have to give at some point. What the trigger will be, neither you, nor I, can predict it. But it will happen, sooner or later. I remember when 1 € was worth 1.65 USD. It wasn't so long ago.
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  #109  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:05 PM
McBane McBane is offline
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As mentioned in my last post, the Chinese have the upper hand because their leadership is playing the long game and committed to being the number 1 global super power. Chinese leadership doesn't worry about the next election, they don't care if today's policies are opposed by the public, or what the media will say. The Chinese government is laser focused on achieving their goal.

Whereas in the US, our leadership is fixated on two things only: 1) staying in power and 2) screwing the opposition. Nothing else matters (and don't pretend it's only one side). That's why we can't fix our infrastructure, social security, healthcare, etc. There's simply no political will to do anything that might endanger re-election or give the opposition a win.

Hell, we can't even decide if we want to remain a super power (MAGA/America First policies). And it certainly does feel like that as we've become more "democratized" - e.g., primaries, social media, etc. - our government has become more dysfunctional and less compromising. It's good to be responsive to the people but, honestly most of the time the people are idiots.
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  #110  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:33 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McBane View Post
our government has become more dysfunctional and less compromising.
I beg to differ. America's political system has been dysfunctional during most of its history: slavery-antislavery infighting that led to the civil war, assassinations of president Garfield in 1881 and president McKinley in 1901, 'robber barons' and the insane level of corruption in US politics from the 1880s to the 1930s, absolutely lunatic wave of isolationism in the early 1940s while Hitler was conquering most of Europe and Japan building bases to attack America, McCarthyism after the war, civil rights' pandemonium with the murders of Martin Luther King and two Kennedys, Watergate, Contras, Monica Lewinsky and Newt Gingrich, Rumsfeld and — Cheney. We tend to think of moments like 1942-1945 when America was united and had good senses, but it's the exception, not the norm. Our time is no worse, it belongs to all those periods of insanities.

What saves America is its government is small, unlike European governments, so it doesn't really matter if the government is insane, the private sector keeps the country going.
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  #111  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:34 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McBane View Post
As mentioned in my last post, the Chinese have the upper hand because their leadership is playing the long game and committed to being the number 1 global super power.
No, the #1 goal of the Chinese Communist Party is to remain in power. They need the whole "we're going to be #1 by 2049" thing to justify to their people why they treat them like complete —.

You can go get a job anywhere in the United States where they back shipping containers up to the dock and you unload the boxes that somebody loaded a few weeks earlier in China. You as a U.S. citizen unloading that container are paid much more, enjoy far more rights, far more personal freedoms, and work in a much safer environment.

Quote:
Chinese leadership doesn't worry about the next election,
They worry about being overthrown and killed by revolutionaries.

Quote:

they don't care if today's policies are opposed by the public, or what the media will say.
They are the media. They recently killed off independent media in Hong Kong.

Quote:
Whereas in the US, our leadership is fixated on two things only: 1) staying in power and 2) screwing the opposition.
Except the U.S. is fundamentally different because most U.S. business and political leadership is comprised of the counter-elite. Everything turns over every 15-25 years. Old money families hold almost no power in business or government. Meanwhile all of the leadership in China springs from a small group of families. New Chinese business leaders must be contained because they cannot be allowed to challenge the ruling class.


Quote:
Nothing else matters (and don't pretend it's only one side). That's why we can't fix our infrastructure,
China keeps building dead-end railroads and highways into mountain ranges that will never make money and apartment buildings that will never see residents. They do this so they can show the people that they're doing something.

Quote:
There's simply no political will to do anything that might endanger re-election or give the opposition a win.
The U.S. is extremely stable because elements of control keep bouncing around between different entities. New people and new industries keep appearing. There is almost no such thing as a family dynasty in politics or business.

I'm 1,000 feet away from the vice president of the United States as I type this post. He came from complete obscurity and his rise was sponsored by people like Peter Thiel who likewise rose from obscurity. Everyone in the central Chinese government is from families that have been in the Chinese government since 1949. They don't trust anyone from the outside.
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  #112  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:41 PM
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craigs craigs is offline
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This is no longer a "City Discussion." Perhaps a mod should move it to a more appropriate subforum.
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  #113  
Old Posted Yesterday, 9:14 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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ALTERNATIVELY how about deleting the obvious political posts and keeping the ones that relate (at least indirectly) toward our cities, or China's, rising and falling. Really just a few at the end.

This has been a great thread and doesn't deserve the dungeon. City Discussions needs good content.
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