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Posted Sep 21, 2026, 11:42 PM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba
Posts: 8,416
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Quote:
Kinew, NDP rise to new heights in Free Press-Abacus Data poll; support for Khan, Tories falls further
Chris Kitching
Monday, Sep. 21, 2026

MIKAELA MACKENZIE / FREE PRESS FILES
Premier Wab Kinew’s personal approval rating increased five percentage points to 68 per cent year-over-year
Support for Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP climbed to its highest level yet — buoyed by a bump outside Winnipeg — while the Tories lost some ground in a quarterly Free Press-Abacus Data poll.
With an election year looming, 60 per cent of those surveyed said they would vote for the New Democrats and 29 per cent said they would back Obby Khan’s Progressive Conservatives.
Seven per cent would support the Liberals — led by Willard Reaves, who doesn’t hold a seat in the legislature — while 18 per cent were undecided.
“To some degree, that increase in (NDP) support is driven in part by higher support outside of Winnipeg,” said Mary Agnes Welch, a vice-president with Abacus (formerly Probe Research).
“I think part of it might be a little bit of, maybe, a (U.S. President Donald) Trump bump. There’s sort of this feeling of rallying behind our leaders in the face of what is now pretty clearly a trade war and, also, perhaps kind of rewarding Wab Kinew for taking a pretty tough stand on some of those tariff issues.”
Kinew’s personal approval rating increased five percentage points to 68 per cent year-over-year. Khan’s rating decreased three points to 31 per cent, while Reaves’ rating dropped four points to 19 per cent, the poll showed.
“It tells me, as the leader of the party, that we continue to have a lot of work to do, and a lot of that work is getting out and meeting and listening to Manitobans,” said Khan, who has led the Tories since April 2025.
He said the economy, affordability, crime and safety and health care are the top concerns he hears from Manitobans.
“We have to do a better job of getting our message out on how we’re going to address those issues and make life better in Manitoba,” Khan said.
The New Democrats and Tories have trended in opposite directions in Abacus polls since Kinew won a majority in October 2023, when the incumbent PCs were led by Heather Stefanson.
A December 2023 survey put NDP and Tory support at 51 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively. The NDP was backed by 55 per cent of respondents in a June 2026 poll, the PCs had 32 per cent and the Liberals eight per cent. The Tories have dropped six points since a March survey.
The New Democrats’ popularity in rural and northern areas in the latest poll (54 per cent) was 12 points higher than June. The Tories, whose traditional strongholds are rural, and the Liberals lost three and five points, respectively.
Welch said the PCs should be “pretty concerned” about polling numbers. The next election must be held on or before Oct. 5, 2027. Kinew has floated the idea of an early vote.
“When you’re running a fair bit behind the NDP outside of the Perimeter, if that trend holds… that does put some of those rural ridings in play that the NDP are already looking at,” Welch said.
Tory MLA Colleen Robbins edged NDP candidate Ray Berthelette by only 70 votes in an August 2025 byelection in Spruce Woods, where the PCs previously enjoyed landslide victories.
Abacus surveyed 1,000 random adults between Aug. 28 and Sept. 14. The online poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.
In Winnipeg, support for the NDP and Liberals increased one point to 64 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. The Tories’ popularity dropped three points to 22 per cent.
Smaller sample sizes suggested the NDP made gains at the Tories’ expense in Winnipeg’s suburbs, which tend to be election battlegrounds, but lost some support to the Liberals in the inner-city.
Smaller samples also suggested some support among seniors and men shifted from the PCs to the New Democrats.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba, said the poll should give the NDP confidence and prompt the PCs to take a hard look at their strategies.
He cautioned a lot can happen to influence public opinion before the next general election is held.
“I would say Kinew is doing all the right things in terms of delivering on some of his election promises, (and) in terms of his appearances in public,” Adams said. “He’s also enjoying a good relationship with (Prime Minister) Mark Carney, so there’s probably a little bit of a brand halo.”
Recent polls suggested national support is high for Carney and the federal Liberal government’s approach to Trump’s tariffs.
Adams said the Tories are in a situation similar to the early 2000s, when then-leader Stuart Murray had trouble resonating with voters while facing a highly popular NDP premier in Gary Doer.
The PCs also face a “Wally Daudrich effect,” Adams said. Daudrich had strong support among PC members in rural Manitoba when he narrowly lost the party’s leadership to Khan.
After the Tories disqualified him from seeking the Turtle Mountain nomination, Daudrich quit and unsuccessfully ran for the Keystone Party in a July byelection in The Pas-Kameesak.
Welch said PC supporters are probably watching recent upheaval in B.C.’s provincial Tory caucus, and federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s struggle to regain momentum nationally.
“That, I think, is maybe at play here as well for the provincial Tories — just not being able to sort of define themselves and manage that internal tension between maybe the more right-leaning elements of their caucus and their supporters vs. those more centrist folks that the party really does need to attract, particularly in Winnipeg,” she said.
MLAs are scheduled to return to the legislature for a fall sitting starting Sept. 29. The NDP holds 34 of 57 seats. The Tories have 20 and the Liberals one. Two MLAs are independents.


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winnipegfreepress.com
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