Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW)

[J.OT13]

Of note on this podcast episode, 14% of passengers through YOW are people connecting flights here to get elsewhere. That's higher than I imagined.

Estimates range around 500k-750k passengers drive out of the NCR to catch a flight from Toronto or Montreal, so that's missed data they can't easily use when trying to attract new destinations.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Noticed that PD has reduced YLW from 6x to 3x weekly in October (days 247). Still not loaded for the winter, and I'm guessing that frequency reduction doesn't bode well for that happening.

If they're going to pull another YSB where there are no connection options such as to the Maritimes, Northwest US or sun destinations, it's going to fail in the winter. So pulling it in the winter means they have no intentions of doing so. Not sure why that's the case. Maybe limited frames making scheduling times less than favourable for connections?

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Why aren’t there more direct flights from YOW?

We’re the capital of Canada. Yet the limited number of direct flights in and out of YOW frustrates locals and visitors alike. Robyn Bresnahan finds out who holds the cards when it comes to getting more non-stop routes – and meets a television executive who’s dubbed Ottawa “the greatest city you can’t get to.”

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/1...arent-there-more-direct-flights-from-yow

The last 2 minutes of this podcast brings me hope. I hope TS copies what WS is doing in YHZ. If that is the case, next year we may see a new pax volume record. This year however looks like we're going to finish with 5.0-5.1 million pax if the momentum keeps going, which is still great. Imagine how many more direct services YOW can get if there was no 500-750k leakage.

[YOWhopeful]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Noticed that PD has reduced YLW from 6x to 3x weekly in October (days 247). Still not loaded for the winter, and I'm guessing that frequency reduction doesn't bode well for that happening.

I think Porter’s advertising is lacking. I am on social media and never saw an ad for Porter from Ottawa to Kelowna. Good old advertising could work as well like on buses and other public transit. Anyway that’s just a thought

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Today could not only be a post-March 2020 record but had it not been for a cancellation, also the first time in almost 6 1/2 years in triple digits. Here’s hoping no thunderstorms this afternoon otherwise 97 will still stand.

Today’s departure count: 99

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1 (and not AC)

AF 327 on gate 17, AC 345 on 28 and AC 888 on 15

So yesterday ended with 95 departures as there were 4 more cancellations.

Also interesting of note yesterday, the afternoon 5T departure left from gate 20. Evidently a combi was used for that flight but I can't ever recall a 737 using 20 even though it's a Code C gate as DH4s also use it (and 19 whenever it reopens). Usually 5T combis leave from 29.

Today’s departure count: 90

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Of note on this podcast episode, 14% of passengers through YOW are people connecting flights here to get elsewhere. That's higher than I imagined.

Estimates range around 500k-750k passengers drive out of the NCR to catch a flight from Toronto or Montreal, so that's missed data they can't easily use when trying to attract new destinations.

The airlines certainly have that data.

[Tesladom]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Estimates range around 500k-750k passengers drive out of the NCR to catch a flight from Toronto or Montreal, so that's missed data they can't easily use when trying to attract new destinations.

Per month? Probably, Per year - that's wayyy too low IMO

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

So yesterday ended with 95 departures as there were 4 more cancellations.

Also interesting of note yesterday, the afternoon 5T departure left from gate 20. Evidently a combi was used for that flight but I can't ever recall a 737 using 20 even though it's a Code C gate as DH4s also use it (and 19 whenever it reopens). Usually 5T combis leave from 29.

Today’s departure count: 90

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

C-FFNM was the frame that operated it and it wasn't a combi - I don't believe they have front-door boarding on the combis hence why they'd use gate 29 with no jetway.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Noticed that PD has reduced YLW from 6x to 3x weekly in October (days 247). Still not loaded for the winter, and I'm guessing that frequency reduction doesn't bode well for that happening.

So announced as seasonal and looks like will stay seasonal for now. Still not loaded yet for next summer but if it wasn't worth bringing back, then why'd they increase frequencies this summer before the first flight even departed.

On the YOW-YHM front, even though it's not bookable yet past 30APR26, I do see that as of 11FEB26 that the route's back up to 2x daily. In other words, it's unlikely they'd increase capacity on a route if they had any intention of discontinuing it only 2.5 months later.

They're probably trying to figure out the optimal frequencies for next year before loading anything. I wonder how YDF's done?

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Tesladom

Per month? Probably, Per year - that's wayyy too low IMO

It's not low, it's roughly 10-15% of YOW's pax gone. Imagine in a hypothetical scenario where all 500k (and I will stick with the lower end) suddenly stopped leaking to other airports and used YOW first. Let's just say hypothetically that 5,000 of those pax are going to LAX. 5,000 more YOW point of sale pax per year may be just enough to take it over the finish line and convince a carrier to add it. Not to mention adding a non-stop stimulates demand even further, but that's not the point. Now you've got 495K left going to destination A, B, C.... etc.

It was a miracle the OAA was able to figured out 57% of YOW based pax was driving to another airport bound for CDG instead of beginning in YOW. AF may not be here today if it was not for that. And no, the AF bus to YUL does not count because AF already has the data for that, I'm talking about data that was unknown to AF.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

They're probably trying to figure out the optimal frequencies for next year before loading anything. I wonder how YDF's done?

Apparently from my FA friend, not too well. But why would it when there are almost no connections in YOW. When it was announced, YDF had a plethora of connecting opportunities and you were able to book them on a single ticket, for some reason PD took that away.

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

So announced as seasonal and looks like will stay seasonal for now. Still not loaded yet for next summer but if it wasn't worth bringing back, then why'd they increase frequencies this summer before the first flight even departed.

On the YOW-YHM front, even though it's not bookable yet past 30APR26, I do see that as of 11FEB26 that the route's back up to 2x daily. In other words, it's unlikely they'd increase capacity on a route if they had any intention of discontinuing it only 2.5 months later.

They're probably trying to figure out the optimal frequencies for next year before loading anything. I wonder how YDF's done?

Looks like they've since loaded the schedule for the entire summer rather than just May. This winter they also didn't load less frequent routes until the schedule was finalized, so they may be doing the same for routes like YLW in the summer like you say. That being said, MCO and FLL have been loaded for next summer at 4x and 3x weekly respectively, on alternating days. MCO is days x246 and FLL is 246. They were not initially loaded. CUN isn't loaded for next summer at this point.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Apparently from my FA friend, not too well. But why would it when there are almost no connections in YOW. When it was announced, YDF had a plethora of connecting opportunities and you were able to book them on a single ticket, for some reason PD took that away.

Guessing the bookings were weak for the original late PM YOW departure and early AM YDF departure which were well-timed for connections, so they were hoping to stimulate more O&D demand with the retiming. I would be surprised if it's back next year given they reduced frequency and the season by four weeks.

[MountainView]

Next summer's Air North flights to YZF and YXY will operate on the same day instead of overnighting. Currently eastbound to YOW is on day 6, with the return west on day 7. It will be moving to day 3:

Whitehorse – Yellowknife – Ottawa eff 09JUN27 1 weekly 737-500
4N801 YXY0730 – 1015YZF1100 – 1710YOW 735 3
4N882 YOW1930 – 2215YZF2255 – 2350YXY 735 3

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The airlines certainly have that data.

The plural here is key, and also the problem.

True city-pair demand is gauged by airlines using commercial aggregators like Sabre Intelligence, Cirium, OAG, which combine data from sources like IATA, ARC in the US, Global Distribution Systems (Sabre, Amadeus). A person driving from YOW to Yzz for a flight to wherever will show as demand originating in Yzz.

Airline data (addresses, credit cards, postal codes) can be scrubbed to gauge true demand origin only for passengers they carry. It doesn’t provide the holistic city-pair demand picture by any industry standard method for everyone to use.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

C-FFNM was the frame that operated it and it wasn't a combi - I don't believe they have front-door boarding on the combis hence why they'd use gate 29 with no jetway.

Silly me I had gate 21 on the brain the whole time I was writing that lol.

Today’s departure count: 90

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

AF 327 on gate 17A today, AC 345 on 28 and AC 888 on 15B - interesting to see 17A & 15B instead of both A or both B.

Originally Posted by MountainView

Next summer's Air North flights to YZF and YXY will operate on the same day instead of overnighting. Currently eastbound to YOW is on day 6, with the return west on day 7. It will be moving to day 3:

Whitehorse – Yellowknife – Ottawa eff 09JUN27 1 weekly 737-500
4N801 YXY0730 – 1015YZF1100 – 1710YOW 735 3
4N882 YOW1930 – 2215YZF2255 – 2350YXY 735 3

Interesting. I wonder if the respective inbound and outbound 4N crews will overnight & deadhead on AC/PD/WS to/from YYZ to operate a flight there or if they'll deadhead on the return all the way back to YXY? The latter would make for a lonnnnng day!

Getting back to YOW-YHM, I do note that YHU-YHM also isn't loaded yet past May 1st so maybe they're still working on the DH4 schedule.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Getting back to YOW-YHM, I do note that YHU-YHM also isn't loaded yet past May 1st so maybe they're still working on the DH4 schedule.

Now with Porter at YXU with a domestic schedule being announced sometime soon, you'd have to think YOW-YXU is going to be in that mix.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Now with Porter at YXU with a domestic schedule being announced sometime soon, you'd have to think YOW-YXU is going to be in that mix.

I can’t imagine a world where it’s not. Probably coming with YXU’s domestic announcement in the next couple of months. I’m [impatiently] waiting for TS’ and PD’s summer 27 schedule out of YOW

[RomanR27]

Speaking of Air North, the final flight of the season is this weekend.

The Star Alliance 330 is in today for AC889/888. As of now, Saturday is scheduled on the Olympic Fly the Flag livery. Not sure when it will be repainted, but may be one of the last chances to catch that paint job as I'd imagine it's days are getting numbered.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 93

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

[RomanR27]

Noticed that the 789 turn on AC342/345 YOW-YVR is removed from 28MAR until the start of the summer schedule on 01MAY and replaced with a 321. So for April, AC's YOW-YVR will be 2x 321 daily. Based on this, looks like for 4x weekly at least, the aircraft will go to YVR-EWR. https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260730-acapr27yvrewr

[RomanR27]

AC has started making the upgrade list which show premium cabin loads available 72 hours in advance rather than at T-24, so here is this weeks premium loads. Everything except Saturday was still pulled at T-24 or later and Saturday is still only 36-48 hours in advance. Not sure how much this will impact the stats, i.e. whether the bid upgrades will process after the numbers are pulled.

Monday: AC889 16/31 J, 16/24 PY; AC888 full Y, full PY, 30/31 J
Wednesday: AC889 27/31 J, full PY; AC888 full Y, full PY, 30/31 J
Thursday: AC889 21/31 J, 12/24 PY; AC888 full Y, full PY, 29/31 J
Saturday: AC889 28/32 J, 13/24 PY; AC888 full Y, 23/24 PY, 28/32 J

So AC888 going out pretty much full all week which is good to see. Somewhat surprised given French board is back this week and English board is back next week?