Kitchener-Waterloo: a microcosm of modern Canada?

[Docere]

Comes pretty close on a lot of indicators to the national average. From the 2021 census.

Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge CMA

Detached dwelling 53%
Average income $54,700
Median household income $92,000
In top half of income distribution 53%
In top 10% of income distribution 10.1%
Visible minority 28%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25-64) 35.4%

Canada

Detached dwelling 52.6%
Average income $54,450
Median household income $84,000
Visible minority 26.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25-64) 32.9%

Ontario

Detached dwelling 53.6%
Average income $56,350
Median household income $91,000
In top half of income distribution 53.6%
In top 10% of income distribution 11.9%
Visible minority 34.3%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25-64) 36.8%


Of course nowhere is a perfect microcosm, as 90% of French-speakers live in Quebec, the Indigenous population is mostly in Western Canada and the northern territories and greatly overrepresented in remote and rural areas, non-metropolitan, rural Canada skews older etc.

But if one were to pick "middle Canada" K-W might come closest.

[Docere]

This should be in Canada forum - my mistake!

[DCReid]

So, it seems like it is probably or should be the best test market for any retail or consumer product company considering a new product in Canada. In the US, I believe that a lot of companies use the Columbus Ohio and Dallas TX areas as such.

[Docere]

Interestingly another one is Tampa, which comes very close on several measures. I guess it's reflective of the shift to the sunbelt.

[ssiguy]

If there was an "average" city in Canada, it's London and always has been.

London is Canada's test market city. From the first McDonalds chicken McNuggets and first downtown shopping mall IN NA to Canada's first TV cable service, Timmy's Ice Cap, Burger King, TD ATM machines, to the first McDonald's in Eastern Canada. This and a whole slew of consumer products. From demographic make up, urban development, crime, income {both average and median}, political leanings, to economic diversification......London is about as average as you can get. This is why even during elections, parties spend a disproportionate amount of money in London to gauge public opinion.

London really is the city where "if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere". Take that New York!

[Docere]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

London really is the city where "if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere". Take that New York!

Much more of a provocative statement when it's actually about "the fake one."

[Docere]

London CMA

Detached dwelling 55%
Average income $51,200
Median household income $79,500
Top half of income distribution 46.7%
Top 10% of income distribution 8.3%
Visible minority 23.4%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25-64) 32.1%

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by DCReid

So, it seems like it is probably or should be the best test market for any retail or consumer product company considering a new product in Canada. In the US, I believe that a lot of companies use the Columbus Ohio and Dallas TX areas as such.

It used to be, decades ago. I wonder whether the K-W numbers are all that different from those of London or Guelph?

[Docere]

From the figures so far...

Average income in K-W is basically identical to Canada as a whole, though the median household income is higher. That's in line with Ontario compared to Canada (3-4 points higher in the top half of income distribution).

Percentage living in detached dwellings is as close as you can get to average (0.4 points higher than Canada, 0.6 points below Ontario).

Percentage of visible minorities is 1.5 points above that of Canada as a whole.

Percentage with a degree 2.5 points higher, London (less than 1 point below) is closer to the national average here.

Middle Canada or I guess Middle English Canada (Quebec being too much of an outlier) certainly seems to lie in Southwestern Ontario.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Docere

From the figures so far...

Average income in K-W is basically identical to Canada as a whole, though the median household income is higher. That's in line with Ontario compared to Canada (3-4 points higher in the top half of income distribution).

Percentage living in detached dwellings is as close as you can get to average (0.4 points higher than Canada, 0.6 points below Ontario).

Percentage of visible minorities is 1.5 points above that of Canada as a whole.

Percentage with a degree 2.5 points higher, London (less than 1 point below) is closer to the national average here.

Middle Canada or I guess Middle English Canada (Quebec being too much of an outlier) certainly seems to lie in Southwestern Ontario.

I knew K-W has a higher participation rate, but the size of the difference in median household income surprised me. K-C-W these days must be a considerably larger market/economy than London, which feels strange to someone who grew up in K-W.

[Docere]

Total Variation Distance: Ethnic Composition (White, Indigenous identity, Visible Minority groups)

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 6.55%
Hamilton 7.5%
Ottawa-Gatineau 8.3%
Edmonton 8.85%
London 9.1%
Windsor 9.6%
Calgary 12.35%
Montreal 13.6%
Winnipeg 16.7%
Toronto 30.3%
Vancouver 32.0%

[Docere]

One area where Kitchener-Waterloo deviates from average is age. It has the youngest age profile of the Ontario CMAs. Here Hamilton is most "average."

Median age

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 38.0
Toronto 39.6
London 40.0
Ottawa 40.4
Hamilton 41.6
Canada 41.6
Ontario 41.6
Windsor 42.2

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Docere

Index of Dissimilarity: Ethnic Composition (White, Indigenous identity, Visible Minority groups)

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 6.55
Hamilton 7.5
Ottawa-Gatineau 8.3
Edmonton 8.85
London 9.1
Windsor 9.6
Calgary 12.35
Montreal 13.6
Winnipeg 16.7
Toronto 30.3
Vancouver 32.0

If this is the percentage of visible minorities a city has, the numbers are over 2 decades old. Toronto and Vancouver, there is no majority as visible minorities now compse over 50% of people.

Living in WInnipeg, the 16.7% of visible minorities number, if Indigenous people are counted, is probably from the early 90s. I recall reading an article way back in the early 90s, stating that in 15 years, Calgary, Edmonton, and WInnipeg's visible minority population would be at 25%. That would have been around 2007.

Currently, my guess would be 40% of the population of Winnipeg is a visible minority. 13% Indigenous, 10% Filipino. 6% South Asian, 4% Chinese...probably at least 5-8% other minorities.

[Docere]

It's not the percentage that belong to visible minority groups. It's Total Variation Distance*, the percentage of the population that would have be redistributed to match the national ethnic composition. Kitchener-Waterloo most closely matches the national average.

* corrected from Index of Dissimilarity

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I knew K-W has a higher participation rate, but the size of the difference in median household income surprised me. K-C-W these days must be a considerably larger market/economy than London, which feels strange to someone who grew up in K-W.

I don't think Stats Can adds Guelph into the KWC mix, but reality on the ground says differently I think as well. I work in the freight transportation business and I just look at what our company and our competition have in each region to see how much larger the KWCG area is than London-St Thomas. We have a facility in London that covers an area basically from the lake up around Aylmer, Ingersoll around to the north side of London, around Strathroy and down to the lake past Rodney. Sister facility in Guelph that services Guelph and Cambridge and a little bit around the outskirts runs more volume a day than London. And there is another terminal in Kitchener/Waterloo on top of that. We're the nationwide market leader in our industry so this isn't a case of a small company that happens to have a focus on southern Ontario that leans to the Waterloo region. Our competition is similarly heavy in the KWCG area and in some cases, service London out of that area.

London certainly was one of the big test market cities. But that list ssiguy posted has something missing. The 21st century. The downtown mall and the McDonalds were in the 60's, Johnny Cash machines were in the 80's, McPizza was early 90's. I don't think London is thought of that way anymore

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

If there was an "average" city in Canada, it's London and always has been.

London is Canada's test market city. From the first McDonalds chicken McNuggets and first downtown shopping mall IN NA to Canada's first TV cable service, Timmy's Ice Cap, Burger King, TD ATM machines, to the first McDonald's in Eastern Canada. This and a whole slew of consumer products. From demographic make up, urban development, crime, income {both average and median}, political leanings, to economic diversification......London is about as average as you can get. This is why even during elections, parties spend a disproportionate amount of money in London to gauge public opinion.

London really is the city where "if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere". Take that New York!

This used to be true. I would question how much this holds up in London's Rust Belt era. Everytime I visit my in-laws there I see decay that doesn't necessarily happen in larger cities.

I hope for their sake some of Carney's industrial policies and defence spending rebound the town. I was working out at the Wolseley Barracks and was surprised to hear that they are adding 175 Reg Force positions as part of the Army's restructuring. Hopefully, this is the start of London's climb back.

[MolsonExport]

London is declining and booming at the same time. While the highrise construction (and sprawl) has been at unprecedented until very recently, the downtown has decayed even more quickly.

[hipster duck]

Downtown London is in pretty sad shape. It's strange, because there is a lot of highrise residential construction, and that stuff targets middle class owners and renters. You'd think that would translate to more disposable income being spent downtown and stores and restaurants having better business, but the opposite seems to have happened, with stores being boarded up and homeless drug addicts taking over the sidewalks.

Downtown Kitchener and Hamilton, in comparison, certainly have a very large and visible homeless population, but they also seem to have more middle class people out and about than they used to.

[shappy]

^ London hasn't attracted nearly as many Torontonians within the last decade as KWC and Hamilton have which is likely a big reason.

[MolsonExport]

we got a lot of inflow from Toronto in the post-pandemic years. Mostly "real estate refugees", as Toronto, and KWC had gotten so expensive.