Quote:
Originally Posted by cdnguys
From international, across Canada, from provincial, from metro, from Saint John. The city already has the lowest vacancy rate in NB. There is a reason Hyatt has confidence in the city, because more major projects are almost certain, including conversion of Saint John LNG to an export facility and most importantly a new nuclear reactor which will drive a 10,000 + jump in population for over a decade.
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We should also appreciate that Saint John's ability to absorb new rental units isn't unlimited. If the other three Fundy Quay buildings were magically brought into existence tomorrow, it would be a challenge to fill them, probably impossible. There have been a lot of new units on the market recently, and there is a lot more coming in the next year or two.
They are going to have to compete for tenants; in my opinion, people won't be throwing themselves at all these new builds. Case in point: 99 King is asking for $2K a month for a one-windowed, balconyless apartment with no parking. I wouldn't be surprised to see some free first month's rent or free internet bonuses thrown around or even price cuts.
I am not convinced the LNG export facility will ever happen, but there should be lots of opportunities coming up if Saint John is willing to take them on. We are starting to get to the other side of the student population surge of the last few years, and hopefully the population can return to a steady increase again.
Labour Force Statistics came out on Friday, and Saint John continued to excel.
Saint John's three-month rolling unemployment rate (adjusted for seasonality) hit a new recent low of just 5.2%. Joint second-lowest CMA outside of Quebec, behind only Victoria (which isn't comparable in my opinion). While Saint John has had unemployment levels similar to this for brief periods in the last decade, this sustained period is probably the strongest since 2017, when it is also compared to and significantly below the national unemployment rate, which is currently at 6.5%. Provincial unemployment is currently 7% for reference.
Moncton has been struggling recently with unemployment still elevated at 7.8%, and Fredericton is doing well at 5.8%.
However, the participation rate (people with a job + people looking for one) is a little scary, hitting an all-time low of 57.5% in January of this year, although it has recently recovered to 61.7%. The impending reality of our aging population. While this is a serious issue, I like to look at the positive: those of working age in the city will have plenty of opportunities, simply because half of the people won't be working.
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