Future Transit System Fantasy Ideas

[VANRIDERFAN]

Watching the construction of the Skytrain in the BC Lower Mainland, I was wondering if their use of piers vice digging up the street would be a better idea?

At least there would be less chance of flooding.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Some of that is self-inflicted by "low taxes" municipal politics, and some of that is an utterly indifferent provincial government.

But we also don't even have any funding for a *small* investment in transit, and certainly not for anything that would actually benefit the parts of the city with the highest ridership and highest transit dependency. In fact, with the measures that the city voted this spring, it's pretty clear that they have completely thrown in the towel.

Meanwhile, my municipal taxes will continue to be put to work planning LRT Phase III to Barrhaven.

I doubt Stage III is getting built anytime soon. The costs go up every year. The population that would supposedly be serviced doesn't grow nearly as fast. Especially now that tech is not growing and immigration has slowed. Closing that business case is getting more and more difficult. Billions to go from Algonquin to Fallowfield is not really defensible. And I can't see the feds or the province ever moving that up substantially on their priority list. The Golden Horseshoe has a long, long list that would generate more ridership and economic benefit Stage 3. Not to mention more votes.

Rail transit in general is also taking a hit broadly. Jarrett Walker of Human Transit made this point on the War on Cars podcast recently. The justification for rail transit has always been about peak demand from suburbs to downtown. If the laptop class wants to work from home, what happens to that peak demand? He argued that demand, investment and the quality of buses should improve in the years to come.

Good on Orleans for getting their bag. It's probably going to develop better because they have the LRT. Anybody who regularly commutes to the core should probably live there, instead of Kanata, Stittsville or Barrhaven.

[J.OT13]

I've heard nothing on Stage 3 during the election campaign so far. I do think Fallowfield and Eagleson would be beneficial to hit PnRs, maybe even invest in multi level parking, but nothing else rail wise for a while.

If Leiper is elected, I genuinely think we'll make significant progress on BRTs. Any one else will bring transit dark ages.

At this point, building BRTs that have been in the books for the last 20 years would be a fantasy come true.

[DarthVader_1961]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I've heard nothing on Stage 3 during the election campaign so far. I do think Fallowfield and Eagleson would be beneficial to hit PnRs, maybe even invest in multi level parking, but nothing else rail wise for a while.

If Leiper is elected, I genuinely think we'll make significant progress on BRTs. Any one else will bring transit dark ages.

At this point, building BRTs that have been in the books for the last 20 years would be a fantasy come true.

Considering the current transit issues with buses and line 1, I’m not sure other levels of government would be willing to fork out large sums of money any further rail projects.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by DarthVader_1961

Considering the current transit issues with buses and line 1, I’m not sure other levels of government would be willing to fork out large sums of money any further rail projects.

The TTC subway OG lines are pieces of crap but the senior orders of government keep funding new ones.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

The TTC subway OG lines are pieces of crap but the senior orders of government keep funding new ones.

To a point. They are reaching limits over there. They had to install Automatic Train Control. They will eventually have to do Platform Screen Doors. They had the Yonge-Blooor rebuild. And whatever the heck is happening under Union Station. Not going to say that what is happening is enough. But they are investing in their older lines.

But also, when it comes to the topic at hand, the math is simple. $5B at least. How many seats will that win compared to that same $5B in the GTA? Unfortunately for us, the GTA and wider Golden Horseshoe is a target rich environment for transit investment. In Ottawa, we're asking for capital investment at the end of the line, to our less dense suburbs, which aren't generating political returns. I don't see the business or political case. And throwing money BRT in Ottawa, is cheaper, easier and proffers potentially more political returns.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

To a point. They are reaching limits over there. They had to install Automatic Train Control. They will eventually have to do Platform Screen Doors. They had the Yonge-Blooor rebuild. And whatever the heck is happening under Union Station. Not going to say that what is happening is enough. But they are investing in their older lines.

But also, when it comes to the topic at hand, the math is simple. $5B at least. How many seats will that win compared to that same $5B in the GTA? Unfortunately for us, the GTA and wider Golden Horseshoe is a target rich environment for transit investment. In Ottawa, we're asking for capital investment at the end of the line, to our less dense suburbs, which aren't generating political returns. I don't see the business or political case. And throwing money BRT in Ottawa, is cheaper, easier and proffers potentially more political returns.

The phase 3 is the most politically valuable real estate. The only swingish ridings we have. But year the rest sounds about right. That said if we end up with a transformational rapid transit fund Ottawa should get its fair share. Alto doesn't attract a lot of political interest other than Laval and Kingston... oh wait. But those stops aside it's not attractive to suburbanite voters as much as transit to their suburbs would be.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The phase 3 is the most politically valuable real estate. The only swingish ridings we have. But year the rest sounds about right. That said if we end up with a transformational rapid transit fund Ottawa should get its fair share. Alto doesn't attract a lot of political interest other than Laval and Kingston... oh wait. But those stops aside it's not attractive to suburbanite voters as much as transit to their suburbs would be.

Alto has long term economic returns. And political returns (especially for Liberals) in places that could transform (like Peterborough). Stage 3 would swing maybe 3-4 seats for 1-2 cycles? But that same $5-6B could pay for improved 905 GO service or LRT extension that would swing maybe double the provincial ridings. The GTA also has worse traffic which is a region wide political problem.

Every provincial forecast also has Ottawa's share of population shrinking over time. That only makes the political ROI worse.

[OTSkyline]

I absolutely think the money and attention should start shifting from LRT to BRT.

We need another cross-town route to serve the population and get people moving more freely east to west (and vice-versa). A BRT going down Baseline/Heron/Walkley would have so much benefits for a much smaller investment (compared to rail and tunnels) IMO. Not sure why this plan isn't shovel-ready yet so that they could start as soon as LRT extensions open (or even before).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OTSkyline

I absolutely think the money and attention should start shifting from LRT to BRT.

We need another cross-town route to serve the population and get people moving more freely east to west (and vice-versa). A BRT going down Baseline/Heron/Walkley would have so much benefits for a much smaller investment (compared to rail and tunnels) IMO. Not sure why this plan isn't shovel-ready yet so that they could start as soon as LRT extensions open (or even before).

They'll start working on it when reality sinks in that money isn't coming for Stage 3 anytime soon.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

The TTC subway OG lines are pieces of crap but the senior orders of government keep funding new ones.

Is your definition of “piece of crap” that they are old or that they are the wrong technology (which seems to be the problem in Ottawa).

[lrt's friend]

We can talk about political returns, but we saw the results of that in the 2000s and early 2010s. This resulted in failure to get things built. Rapid transit requires more than election cycle decision making. The best politicians make decisions that get things built, rather than those that campaign on the reset button. But beyond that, also building things properly instead of cutting the wrong corners. Ottawa did both of the above and we have ended up with underachieving rail that finally got built after a 10 to 15 year delay. Ottawa remains a laughing stock both nationally and to some degree internationally.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

To a point. They are reaching limits over there. They had to install Automatic Train Control. They will eventually have to do Platform Screen Doors. They had the Yonge-Blooor rebuild. And whatever the heck is happening under Union Station. Not going to say that what is happening is enough. But they are investing in their older lines.

So they have problems on their original lines and they are trying to fix them and they are still getting funding from the senior orders of government for expansion packs.

Ottawa also has problems on its original line and is trying to fix them, so that's not an excuse for Ottawa not getting future cost-shared funding (or free money like Toronto gets.)

The problems on the Confederation line are not an excuse to avoid funding future transit development in Ottawa.