The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[bingun]

I know the headline figure looks bad here, but I wouldn't stress too much about it. Digging deeper, the non-permanent resident population is shrinking back to a healthier level than during the previous surge. If you take that into account, the 'permanent' population appears to still be rising.

Non-permanent residents

NL - 17,200 (-1,344)
NS - 53,144 (-2,939)
NB - 35,739 (-1,917)
PEI - 10,368 (-676)

[KnoxfordGuy]

Quarterly population figures are out. Stagnation in Atlantic Canada again, more or less:

NB: -886
NS: +778
PEI: -286
NFLD: -647

[bingun]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Quarterly population figures are out. Stagnation in Atlantic Canada again, more or less:

NB: -886
NS: +778
PEI: -286
NFLD: -647

Thanks for posting. I hadn't realized these were coming out this morning.

Impressive for NS, but the others are broadly in line with Canada as a whole, so nothing to get too excited about.

NB took a big hit on non-permanent residents. More so than NS. NB was also relatively flat in interprovincial migration, whereas NS gained over 1,000 residents through that channel.

Net Non-Permanent Residents by Province

NB: -2,368 (1,710 - 4,078)
NS: -1,665 (2,534 - 4,199)
PEI: -779 (334 - 1,113)
NL: -1,267 (703 - 1,970)

[MonctonGoldenTri]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-falls-third-largest-city-9.7292748

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-falls-third-largest-city-9.7292748

Makes sense given SJ's industrial nature. The number of employees in heavy industry has actually fallen even while production has often increased dramatically. I seem to recall Irving pulp and paper employing something like 700-800 in the 1970's. Today I think the number is more like 300 even though the the mill is greatly expanded
Even more dramatic shrinkage in workforce at the port over the past few decades. Back in the days of breakbulk cargo in the 1960's there were close to 3000 longshoremen working at times in the Winterport. Today the number is more like 250-300.

[bingun]

I think comparing only the population within city limits, not the CMA, is a little lazy of the journalist, but I guess most folks don't understand the difference. Saint John is still comfortably above Fredericton by that measure and will be for many years to come.

I am glad to see Donna bring up vacant property taxes again; she should use any opportunity she has to mention it.

[Nashe]

CMAs as of July 1, 2025 (last year):

Moncton (CMA): 196,143 (Another year of 2.9% growth would put July 1, 2026 at 201,831)
Saint John (CMA): 144,543 (Another year of 1.1% growth would put July 1, 2026 at 146,133)
Fredericton (CMA): 125,303 (Another year of 1.6% growth would put July 1, 2026 at 127,308)

Still a bit of room between SJ and F.

For funsies:

St. John's July 1, 2025: 243,478 July 1, 2026 (growth at 1.3%): 246,643 est
Halifax July 1, 2025: 544,834 July 1, 2026 (growth at 1.6%): 553,551 est

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by bingun

I think comparing only the population within city limits, not the CMA, is a little lazy of the journalist, but I guess most folks don't understand the difference. Saint John is still comfortably above Fredericton by that measure and will be for many years to come.

I am glad to see Donna bring up vacant property taxes again; she should use any opportunity she has to mention it.

That was my thought too. I think CMA's matter more in most cases.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by sailor734

That was my thought too. I think CMA's matter more in most cases.

No question about it. Cities can play around with their boundaries and there is a lot of variability in how cities manage their boundaries across the nation (and even more when comparing Canada to the US).

CMA matters more and gives a better picture as to how much a city is truly growing, the population the city serves, and is a "fairly" consistent measure of area of influence. One gripe some will have in the Freddy region will share is Oromocto not being included in their CMA. This would put Freddy closer to SJ, but even so would not surpass it.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by bingun

I am glad to see Donna bring up vacant property taxes again; she should use any opportunity she has to mention it.

I am of two minds about the proposed vacant land tax increase. Conceptually I don't really hate it.

First, why not just... reassess vacant land in PDAs? The assessments are far below what lots actually sell for. Isn't that the easiest fix? Also, allow municipalities to increase mill rates on vacant lots provided it's done in a revenue-neutral fashion.

Secondly, I am not confident in the ability of NB or its cities to implement or competently execute this. No need to elaborate of course. Needs to have an easy appeals process for brownfield, land partially taken up by easements, and so on. As well as STRICTLY defined boundaries subject to very clear rules.

Lastly, the 'fine' should vanish if a building permit and deposit are paid, and any revenue raised from it should go into an incentive program instead of giving the city walking-around money. Even something simple like free water/sewer extension in the PDA would be a great 'wealth transfer'.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I am of two minds about the proposed vacant land tax increase. Conceptually I don't really hate it.

First, why not just... reassess vacant land in PDAs? The assessments are far below what lots actually sell for. Isn't that the easiest fix? Also, allow municipalities to increase mill rates on vacant lots provided it's done in a revenue-neutral fashion.

Secondly, I am not confident in the ability of NB or its cities to implement or competently execute this. No need to elaborate of course. Needs to have an easy appeals process for brownfield, land partially taken up by easements, and so on. As well as STRICTLY defined boundaries subject to very clear rules.

Lastly, the 'fine' should vanish if a building permit and deposit are paid, and any revenue raised from it should go into an incentive program instead of giving the city walking-around money. Even something simple like free water/sewer extension in the PDA would be a great 'wealth transfer'.

The complexity is exactly why the province hasn't given the cities permission to do so.

I am not really fussy about how it's done, as long as there is a strong disincentive to sitting on vacant land in the primary development area. Land Value Tax would be awesome, but that's a pipe dream.

From my perspective, I think the simpler the solution, the better. How about it's only within a specific boundary, you get five years' warning from when it's first vacant and a credit for the last five years of extra taxes if you develop it.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

That was my thought too. I think CMA's matter more in most cases.

Agree 100%. CMA is the best metric. Saint John CMA is safe for another 20-30 years at least.

One could quibble that the Freddy CMA does not include Oromocto and the Moncton CMA does not include Shediac, but this argument is for another day.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agree 100%. CMA is the best metric. Saint John CMA is safe for another 20-30 years at least.

One could quibble that the Freddy CMA does not include Oromocto and the Moncton CMA does not include Shediac, but this argument is for another day.

I wonder if that would add 9k to Freddy and 11k to Moncton, respectively, if they were amalgamated?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I wonder if that would add 9k to Freddy and 11k to Moncton, respectively, if they were amalgamated?

I think that would be fair. For Moncton, this would make the current CMA population ~ 212,000.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think that would be fair. For Moncton, this would make the current CMA population ~ 212,000.

I'm sure the 35% commuter quotient has already been hit by now. Just a matter of the stats cycle arriving.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think that would be fair. For Moncton, this would make the current CMA population ~ 212,000.

Originally Posted by Nashe

I'm sure the 35% commuter quotient has already been hit by now. Just a matter of the stats cycle arriving.

I remember reading here a couple years ago that (?)Beaubassin has enough commuting pattern with Moncton, and once Beaubassin grows a certain amount, it gets absorbed by Shediac, which would automatically make Shediac absorbed into the Moncton CMA.

Not sure if I got all my facts straight there but yeah

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

I remember reading here a couple years ago that (?)Beaubassin has enough commuting pattern with Moncton, and once Beaubassin grows a certain amount, it gets absorbed by Shediac, which would automatically make Shediac absorbed into the Moncton CMA.

Not sure if I got all my facts straight there but yeah

Interesting. I wonder if with Local Governance Reform, Oromocto may be in a similar position. They absorbed much of former Lincoln and that area likely had significantly more Fredericton commenters. Possibly enough to skew the numbers.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Interesting. I wonder if with Local Governance Reform, Oromocto may be in a similar position. They absorbed much of former Lincoln and that area likely had significantly more Fredericton commenters. Possibly enough to skew the numbers.

What new kid said is correct. Beaubassin could be subsumed into the Shediac CA, which in turn could alter the commuter numbers enough that the Shediac CA could in turn be swallowed by the Moncton CMA.

Once a CMA, always a CMA, but CAs have no such protection.

If this could happen in greater Moncton, the same thing could happen in Freddy vis a vis Oromocto.

[Pugsley]

The article was click-bait and the journalist and editor should be ashamed of the low-depth of research into this story. They wanted to sensationalize a story to get everyone all up in arms and click to read. The CMA (as discussed above) is more important than the city population proper. If we evaluated size by the city proper, Halifax is technically bigger than Miami (450K). And I think we can all agree that Halifax is no Miami.

[MonctonRad]

Well, they did try to grow palm trees in Halifax a few years back, but they all died.