MLB in Vancouver?

[bluefox]

MLB in Vancouver might seem like a leap, but I think we'll all do well to remember the value of this isn't in securing a team itself; rather it's in whatever real estate/development comes with that. The team is really the carrot. Just look at the parties involved and the potential sites that are being discussed. All high-value, underdeveloped, and in the urban core. The fact is, real estate (and/or unlocking land value) is still a strong long-term investment play in Vancouver, regardless of current economic conditions. It's a developer-led play for a reason, and they're involved for a reason.

Also working in the bid's favour, we do have a good amateur baseball culture in BC that has the potential to grow more with a pro team to anchor it, and we have the same media market potential as Denver or Minneapolis -- approaching 4 million when you include the Fraser Valley and southern Vancouver Island. That would place us in the middle tier of MLB markets, not near the bottom. Yes, payroll will be a challenge, even without the exchange rate. But that just takes the right partners with deep enough pockets.

Obviously, the bid needs to develop a lot more to be credible, but I'd still put it a step above a pipe dream IMO.

[logan5]

When I first heard abut this, I was under the impression that there was an ownership group ready, but it sounds like the only potential part owner so far is Zach Ross. Getting a strong ownership group together will be difficult, though if the Cambie Bridge site is where they are prosing to put the stadium, that could draw interest. For now though, this is a long shot.

[Migrant_Coconut]

As of last year, the Canadians are #40 in Minor League attendance.

If we're not going to spend up to a billion to keep the Caps (and we shouldn't), spending just as much on a presumably 2/3rds full stadium seems equally dubious. Let's see some actual numbers first.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

It makes wayyy more sense to build an MLB ballpark than build a new “soccer specific “ stadium for an MLS team when BC Place already exists and just hosted the World Cup.

[logan5]

TV market size for MLB expansion candidates...

Nashville - 2 918 000
Salt Lake - 3 386 000
Vancouver - 4 418 000

Nashville and Salt Lake are considered the 2 top expansion candidates. Vancouver has a way bigger tv market than both of them. Vancouver also already has much bigger MLB viewership than both Nashville and Salt lake. During the 2025 ALCS, 34% of households in Vancouver watched at least part of those games. For comparison, Charlotte, which is considered part of "Braves Country", only had 15% of households watching the Braves when they were in the World Series, and that's with starting times at 7 pm, when you get more viewers at home, vs Vancouver 4 pm start times for Blue Jay games.

Vancouver's a good baseball market.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The Sounds are #5 in actual Minor League crowd turnout, and the Bees are #24. We're at #40.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The Sounds are #5 in actual Minor League crowd turnout, and the Bees are #24. We're at #40.

We're #40 with a High-A team (3rd tier), the other two are Triple-A (1st tier).

If we're pulling the 40th best attendance numbers in all of MiLB, with its 150 or so teams, with a proportionately lower talent level on the roster day by day compared to Triple-A, that still speaks well of us as a baseball market. The question to be asking would be where we would sit on those rankings if we had a Triple-A team.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by logan5

TV market size for MLB expansion candidates...

Nashville - 2 918 000
Salt Lake - 3 386 000
Vancouver - 4 418 000

Nashville and Salt Lake are considered the 2 top expansion candidates. Vancouver has a way bigger tv market than both of them. Vancouver also already has much bigger MLB viewership than both Nashville and Salt lake. During the 2025 ALCS, 34% of households in Vancouver watched at least part of those games. For comparison, Charlotte, which is considered part of "Braves Country", only had 15% of households watching the Braves when they were in the World Series, and that's with starting times at 7 pm, when you get more viewers at home, vs Vancouver 4 pm start times for Blue Jay games.

Vancouver's a good baseball market.

You can expand that Vancouver market footprint to also include all of BC and AB for a fan media market footprint of ~11M. There is no market in central/west that provides this level of potential reach, SLC would cap out at ~3.5M, Portland at ~4.2M, and Nashville at ~7.5M. The only other untapped markets in the continent that represent a comparable opportunity are Raleigh/Charlotte at a combined ~17M across all of N/S Carolina and Montreal, covering all of Quebec at ~10M.

[logan5]

If your best argument against MLB expansion in Vancouver is the Canadians attendance, then that's a pretty good signal that Vancouver is a good candidate for an expansion team, because Nat Baily is one of the smallest baseball stadiums in minor league baseball.

Fan engagement in Vancouver for MLB is very high for a none MLB market, as it is for the entire country, so there is the potential for a Vancouver team to capture fans from all of Western Canada (as mentioned above). There is a huge Canada vs USA dynamic, so when a Vancouver team starts winning, you will get fan interest from all of western Canada.

The potential for television ratings are huge...

While Nielsen numbers are only for the U.S. market, when combined with Numeris figures for the Canadian market, the Blue Jays-Yankees ALDS averaged 7.65 million viewers. The 3.65 million for the series on Sportsnet/CityTV in Canada was up 10% from 2016, which was the last time the Blue Jays were in the ALDS.

The audience in Canada looks like it will be even more pronounced during the ALCS. Game 1 of the Mariners-Blue Jays series on Sunday drew 10.02 million viewers across the U.S. and Canada, with Sportsnet/CityTV accounting for 47% of the audience. Fox drew 5.31 million viewers in the U.S., while the game in Canada drew 4.71 million.

The number of Canadian viewers is almost matching the number of US viewers, vs a country 9 times the size of Canada, so another strong business case for putting another team in Canada.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Ar...ys-drawing-strong-tv-audience-in-canada/
https://numeris.ca/wp-content/uploads/20.../EN/Numeris%20-%20A%20Nations%20Team.pdf

[Migrant_Coconut]

Nat Bailey averages 4,212 fans per game out of a possible 6,500 (down from 4,262 in '24); they haven't sold out since pre-lockdown. Not exactly a 99 B-Line level bottleneck.

Originally Posted by bluefox

We're #40 with a High-A team (3rd tier), the other two are Triple-A (1st tier).

If we're pulling the 40th best attendance numbers in all of MiLB, with its 150 or so teams, with a proportionately lower talent level on the roster day by day compared to Triple-A, that still speaks well of us as a baseball market. The question to be asking would be where we would sit on those rankings if we had a Triple-A team.

Dunno, that's like saying MLS isn't as prestigious as UEFA... and yet the Caps can still pull 40k out of 55k as of yesterday, while the Canadians can't even manage 2/3rds.

Either way, it's a fact that Nashville or Salt Lake have more filled seats for baseball. If I'm MLB and I'm relying on that for 31-41% of total revenue (edit: 31% attendance, 10% concessions, 10% sponsors, 23% local TV and 26% national TV; by contrast, the NFL and NBA can get by with lower turnout), that's what I'm looking at, and I'd want actual estimates of how full a stadium would be before committing.

[logan5]

Last nights game was a sellout. The seating capacity for Nat Baily is 5750, which the Canadians sell those seats out frequently. The 6500 figure is including group areas, where people are standing. The number of people in standing areas isn't released to the public. When you look at the box scores, you will often see a recurring number - 5750. That means the game is a sellout, with the rest of the crowd in standing areas.

If that's your best argument...

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by logan5

When I first heard abut this, I was under the impression that there was an ownership group ready, but it sounds like the only potential part owner so far is Zach Ross. Getting a strong ownership group together will be difficult, though if the Cambie Bridge site is where they are prosing to put the stadium, that could draw interest. For now though, this is a long shot.

The Globe article posted on the last page from back in April indicated that Seattle Kraken and SF 49ers ownership were both potentially interested in being involved, and that TSV has hired one of the leading executives who helped put the Seattle Kraken expansion bid together. None of this was confirmed in the July article(s) or any public statements yet but there is chance this is still the case. If true, there will be serious momentum behind this bid.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Apparently Nashville has no site, no funding and no backer; Portland has a site and funding, but no backer. So it's us or Salt Lake.

Originally Posted by logan5

Last nights game was a sellout. The seating capacity for Nat Baily is 5750, which the Canadians sell those seats out frequently.

They averaged 4,212 of those 5,750 just last year, with 66 home games; MLB will expand that to 81 home games/year. If that's your best argument...

[logan5]

Ive presented multiple reasons why Vancouver is a good baseball market, which I guess you didnt read. so no, not even close to my best argument.

[Migrant_Coconut]

And I've provided counters, which I guess you didn't read. Again: baseball relies much less on TV revenue and more on filling chairs than other pro sports, so if Nat Bailey is apparently full one day and then half-empty the next, then the MLB's going to Salt Lake instead.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And I've provided counters, which I guess you didn't read. Again: baseball relies much less on TV revenue and more on filling chairs than other pro sports, so if Nat Bailey is apparently full one day and then half-empty the next, then the MLB's going to Salt Lake instead.

You have no idea how the sports business works. TV contracts are where most of the money comes from for MLB. You repeated the Canadians attendance 3 times, which you are misinformed about. Take the L.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by logan5

- snip -

Speaking of Ls and not knowing the sports business, I posted a revenue breakdown above. Here's a second and a third one from the year after.

I'll spell it out for you: your precious local TV stat only makes up 19-23% of MLB's total income, while ticket sales and concessions are 41-43% (you may be confused with the NFL and NBA, whose TV rights very much do make up the lion's share of the money; MLB is not the same, it's closer to MLS and the NHL).

Add how 1) the Caps and Lions seasons will run at the same time and poach viewership, 2) the Major League means almost 1/4th more home games people have to show up for, and 3) Vancouver's outdrawn by freaking Greenville and South Bend when it comes to High-A attendance, and suddenly "build it and they will come" looks more like a mission statement. One packed game does not a season make.

I get it. You really, really like baseball. Understand that much of Vancouver may not feel the same way.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Speaking of Ls and not knowing the sports business, I posted a revenue breakdown above. Here's a second and a third one from the year after.

I'll spell it out for you: your precious local TV stat only makes up 19-23% of MLB's total income, while ticket sales and concessions are 41-43% (you may be confused with the NFL and NBA, whose TV rights very much do make up the lion's share of the money; MLB is not the same, it's closer to MLS and the NHL).

Add how 1) the Caps and Lions seasons will run at the same time and poach viewership, 2) the Major League means almost 1/4th more home games people have to show up for, and 3) Vancouver's outdrawn by freaking Greenville and South Bend when it comes to High-A attendance, and suddenly "build it and they will come" looks more like a mission statement. One packed game does not a season make.

I get it. You really, really like baseball. Understand that much of Vancouver may not feel the same way.

I showed the business case. Take the L. You have lost this debate so bad These links make no sense Lol

[Djeffery]

We're really going to talk about MiLB attendance being a marker for MLB support in a market? Towns with not a lot else going on are outdrawing a single A team in a large metro? Sounds a little like Tim Hortons deciding that little coffee shop on the corner doesn't have a line out the door so therefore they shouldn't put a Tim's in that area.

The Toronto Maple Leafs of the Canadian Baseball League draw hundreds and their games are free in the middle of a densely populated neighbourhood and they have former MLB slugger Yasiel Puig on their roster. So I guess by that lack of support the Toronto Blue Jays shouldn't be 2nd in MLB total attendance and 4th in average attendance.

There may be other questions to support or oppose Vancouver's viability for an MLB team, but certainly the attendance at the Canadians is not one of them.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logan5

I showed the business case. Take the L. You have lost this debate so bad These links make no sense Lol

Migrant always has to have the last word. I don't know if C's support translates into MLB support, but trying to call them out as an example of a team that gets poor attendance is laughable.

They just did a major stadium expansion after the last addition in 2015. I don't know what the new max attendance is, but they aren't shy about cranking the price of food and drinks lately either.

Of course it's not going to sell out on a dreary April evening, as an outdoor venue with large portions not being under cover.