May 2025-May 2026 Metro Area Job Growth

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by downtownpdx

Yeah the Portlandia image wore thin pretty quickly. And the city went through a harder time than most during Covid, at least on the socioeconomic front. We fortunately had a low number of pandemic deaths compared to many metros.. but strict shutdowns, a long stretch of George Floyd protests/riots, homelessness increasing… hard to think of how things could have gone more sideways all at once to damage downtown.

That being said I’m sure the casual observer, if living under a rock for the last 6 years, would basically find a city today with a somewhat quiet downtown but otherwise livable and pleasant. A former resident who recently toured downtown after being gone for a year said it felt like the old Portland again. Anyway .. a bit off topic but I’m just saying I think the barrage of negative media attention has contributed to perceptions that in turn contributed the current sluggish economy.

Portland is probably also suffering economically because two of its prime employers, Nike and Intel, are doing poorly. Nike's stock is down 70% from its peak at a level not seen since the mid-2010s and Intel business has badly lagged just about all semiconductor companies, even with its stock price rebounding. I'm guessing that those two companies and the multiplier effect (suppliers, etc.) could have some impact since Wiki says that Intel was the largest employer in Portland metro in 2024, at 25,000 employees, and Nike the 5th largest, with close to 11,000 employees.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I take the BLS numbers with a grain of salt. For example, I see no reason why Las Vegas would gain 24,500 jobs, in the top three, when tourism is down and no business/corporate news other than construction of the Guitar hotel and the A's stadium. Phoenix has been on the business news due to the chip factory boom, yet LV has somehow out gained Phoenix, which is twice as large. DC is understandable given the layoffs and downsizing implemented by the Trump administration. I have no idea about Portland, buy maybe perhaps a pullback of Intel and other tech companies that have been laying off staff by the thousands. And Fresno relatively large gain does not make sense, at least to me. And certainly, one year of change, based on one arbitrary month, does not signify a trend, other than that the job market has slowed nationally for all metros.

I have no idea about Vegas either. Is it just construction jobs? But isn't growth slowing there because of the tourism downturn the last 2-3 years? What else would be creating jobs like that? Warehouse jobs? But aren't those slowing because of the economy? Part of my company is involved in the global data center boom, for better or worse. I dont see Vegas often compared to many other cities or regions for that.

Its pretty suspicious.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by downtownpdx

Yeah the Portlandia image wore thin pretty quickly.

As a frequent visitor, I would dare say that the Portlandia phase peaked in 2007 or 2008 (before the actual show). The hubs and I were frequent visitors in those years, and one year we hauled our bicycles up; the next year, we had folding bicycles delivered to our hotel in downtown Portland (met up with Giovanni Sasso that trip). We loved doing the Sunday Parkway rides; it really gave us a chance to soak in the neighborhoods and meet people. In 2008, people partying on their lawns and driveways along the route would shout out, and we would stop and show them our folding bikes (that also happened in Seattle the same year, in smaller circumstances). Such wonderful, welcoming people--we actually talked about moving to PDX back in 2008.

[downtownpdx]

Originally Posted by craigs

As a frequent visitor, I would dare say that the Portlandia phase peaked in 2007 or 2008 (before the actual show). The hubs and I were frequent visitors in those years, and one year we hauled our bicycles up; the next year, we had folding bicycles delivered to our hotel in downtown Portland (met up with Giovanni Sasso that trip). We loved doing the Sunday Parkway rides; it really gave us a chance to soak in the neighborhoods and meet people. In 2008, people partying on their lawns and driveways along the route would shout out, and we would stop and show them our folding bikes (that also happened in Seattle the same year, in smaller circumstances). Such wonderful, welcoming people--we actually talked about moving to PDX back in 2008.

The Sunday Parkways still happens, I live the eastern edge of town and last Sunday there were closed streets, hundreds of bicyclists and a band playing at the park near our house. And I’m guessing this was happening all over the city.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Doge cuts still lingering. I saw it in person last August, and Fed Jobs reddit has a honest view of what really happened there,as those people were actually getting laid off.
Im not surprised at all.

On a random note, if you have a long term view, now is a great time to buy real estate in DC proper. Maybe it's that everything else in the NE corridor continues to skyrocket, but I've recently seen some beautiful listings in DC proper for homes and/or condos and have thought, geesh, that feels like a really good value.

If I were in a different season in life, or approaching retirement and perhaps wanting to settle down with a walkable lifestyle, DC would be at the top of my list.

[mhays]

A condo isn't a home?

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mhays

A condo isn't a home?

What?

I literally just mean a stand alone town/rowhome ("home") versus units in multi-family buildings (i.e. condos).

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Portland is probably also suffering economically because two of its prime employers, Nike and Intel, are doing poorly. Nike's stock is down 70% from its peak at a level not seen since the mid-2010s and Intel business has badly lagged just about all semiconductor companies, even with its stock price rebounding. I'm guessing that those two companies and the multiplier effect (suppliers, etc.) could have some impact since Wiki says that Intel was the largest employer in Portland metro in 2024, at 25,000 employees, and Nike the 5th largest, with close to 11,000 employees.

I think Portland's decline is more systemic. Their job losses are coinciding with rising drug use and crime rates. Less economic activity across the board.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

We are gonna be in for rough 1-2 years.

Job growth numbers have been declining ever since the 2021 post-COVID back to work bump.
2026 is the first year that net job growth has been going up.

The last increase in job growth besides 2026 was in 2019.

[Crawford]

2025 was the weakest year of growth since the Pandemic. We went from 2 million annual new jobs to 500,000 annual new jobs. This year is worse.

Job growth has essentially stopped, for obvious reasons.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Portland is probably also suffering economically because two of its prime employers, Nike and Intel, are doing poorly. Nike's stock is down 70% from its peak at a level not seen since the mid-2010s and Intel business has badly lagged just about all semiconductor companies, even with its stock price rebounding. I'm guessing that those two companies and the multiplier effect (suppliers, etc.) could have some impact since Wiki says that Intel was the largest employer in Portland metro in 2024, at 25,000 employees, and Nike the 5th largest, with close to 11,000 employees.

Those jobs bring money from the outside. Based on common multipliers, they might support an addition x3 jobs once you add teachers, retail workers, builders, doctors, etc. The latter recycle the money Nike and Intel bring to the area rather than bringing in money themselves.

Many others also bring money to the area of course, whether widget makers or OHSU research. But if the collective "money coming in" sector loses jobs it's a big problem.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

What?

I literally just mean a stand alone town/rowhome ("home") versus units in multi-family buildings (i.e. condos).

If you include the other words than it makes sense.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by Crawford

^
Fakenews.

2025 was the weakest year of growth since the Pandemic. We went from 2 million annual new jobs to 500,000 annual new jobs. This year is worse.

Job growth has essentially stopped, for obvious reasons.

Like I said, job growth % has been declining since 2021 to 2025, so literally every year was "the weakest year of growth since the pandemic" until 2026.
2026 was the first year job growth is going up, and this is considering fed gov layoffs that were largely booked for 2025.

[mhays]

Based on what I'm seeing, we had millions of new jobs per year until 2025...then it was a hard stop. The addition was revised down to 181,000. That's an ok month but miniscule for a year.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by mhays

Based on what I'm seeing, we had millions of new jobs per year until 2025...then it was a hard stop. The addition was revised down to 181,000. That's an ok month but miniscule for a year.

Again, the job growth was declining by over a million for every year since post covid 2021. 2026 was the first year job growth was not declining. 2026 was the first year that broke the trend.

Here is the BLS data:
2020: -9246
2021: 7268
2022: 4526
2023: 2515
2024: 1459
2025: 116
2026: 552 (only first 6 months)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Again, the job growth was declining by over a million for every year since post covid 2021. 2026 was the first year job growth was not declining. 2026 was the first year that broke the trend.

Here is the BLS data:
2020: -9246
2021: 7268
2022: 4526
2023: 2515
2024: 1459
2025: 116
2026: 552 (only first 6 months)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

That will almost certainly be revised downward.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

That will almost certainly be revised downward.

Yup. But still will be higher than 2025, closer to 2024 numbers when all said and done.

[mhays]

Ok, I get what you're saying.

If not revised down, and if extended for the full 2026, it'll still be terrible of course.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Again, the job growth was declining by over a million for every year since post covid 2021. 2026 was the first year job growth was not declining. 2026 was the first year that broke the trend.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

I understand your overall point about directionality of growth, but the macro picture is we're likely just now beginning a much broader and longer period of unprecedented job stagnation.

Outside of aging Boomers (healthcare jobs), AI infrastructure (likely to bump up construction/engineering jobs, at least temporarily), and increased defense spending, everything else is only treading water or in decline.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

I understand your overall point about directionality of growth, but the macro picture is we're likely just now beginning a much broader and longer period of unprecedented job stagnation.

Outside of aging Boomers (healthcare jobs), AI infrastructure (likely to bump up construction/engineering jobs, at least temporarily), and increased defense spending, everything else is only treading water or in decline.

Yeah, it's pretty terrible. Especially so for white collar/ professional jobs. Worst market I've seen since I've started working (early 90's).