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  #261  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 9:25 PM
kikin kikin is online now
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Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut View Post
Hey, so long as the builders are still building. We want to avoid a slump in construction that leads to more incoming residents fighting over less homes.

The big concern would be if the large developers use this subsidy to keep making overpriced shoeboxes and hoping for a second boom (knowing that the feds will bail them out again) instead of correcting and shifting to family-sized units.
people can't afford family sized units in the most desirable areas, at least not at first, the average price in decent areas should be around the $1000 - $1100 per sq ft range, and therefore the suite sizes are built according to that and what people can afford.

family sized units are already very low priced in areas that are further from the trains and in the suburbs
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  #262  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 9:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ecbin View Post
At least use numbers that are real rather than make stuff up. There are 17m homes in all of Canada and last year about 24k homes were sold in the GVRD (288k in the last 10 years). The CMHC estimates we have a housing shortage that requires an additional 3.5-6m additional homes to be built above our normal rate of construction in the next 10 years.

The feds stepping in to buy a couple thousand condos over the next couple years will, with any of these data points, be a mere drop in the bucket in the wholesale market correction that is happening right now.

That's my whole point - you were making an evidence free knee jerk reaction to an announcement with no information beyond "innovative financing". This could totally be nothing more than a developer handout OR it could be a chance for the feds to play some hardball with the developers and end up with a bunch of distressed assets that they can use for "affordable" homes. There's absolutely NOTHING in the announcement that tells us which they plan on doing - all we can do now is put out an opinion on what we think it should/could be rather than form some hasty, illogical, and irrational conclusion.
I'm making conclusions based on what the Prime Minister said. Things like:

"...and, at the same time, too many completed condos are sitting empty. In Metro Vancouver alone, around 2,500 finished units are standing vacant with no buyers. With higher interest rates and weak investor demand, developers are stuck. They don’t want to sell at a loss, but they also cannot afford to hold empty units indefinitely.."

When did we decide to suspend the basic laws of capitalism for developers? If nobody's buying your product you cut the price and take the lumps. If you go bankrupt a new business will arise to take your place. There's no small irony that "Communist" China was quite willing to see this take place vis a vis their property bubble and overextended developers yet supposedly capitalist Canada is not.
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  #263  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 10:54 PM
AlessioSBT AlessioSBT is offline
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It's a bailout.

The current unsold condos are not cheap normal apartments, they are the peak of the luxury buildings made before the real estate collapse.
Here in Vancouver you can check yourself how most of the unsold units are in buildings where the few units that actually sold are between 1500-2000sqft. That is 50%-100% higher than the current resale price in Vancouver (around 1000sqft).

If you have 3 billions and you want to buy a bunch of condos and rent them to people there is NO point in spending them for (let's say) 100 luxury units instead of 200 normal units.
It would make more sense to buy the plenty of resale units available. But they are not doing that. They are buying the unsold luxury ones.

Now, someone will say "ok buy we don't know how much the government is paying for them". True, we don't know. But we do know that the average margin of a developer on a condo unit is not 50%.
So, at least in theory, this is bail out.
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  #264  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 11:47 PM
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I'm really enjoying how this story has somehow morphed into "$3 billion to buy unsold condos". It was even on CBC Radio this morning's On The Coast (I think it was) as some kind of undeniable fact
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  #265  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by kikin View Post
the average price in decent areas should be around the $1000 - $1100 per sq ft range, and therefore the suite sizes are built according to that and what people can afford
The feds are spending $3 billion on a buyout because people can't afford them.
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  #266  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2026, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by AlessioSBT View Post
It's a bailout.

The current unsold condos are not cheap normal apartments, they are the peak of the luxury buildings made before the real estate collapse.
Here in Vancouver you can check yourself how most of the unsold units are in buildings where the few units that actually sold are between 1500-2000sqft. That is 50%-100% higher than the current resale price in Vancouver (around 1000sqft).

If you have 3 billions and you want to buy a bunch of condos and rent them to people there is NO point in spending them for (let's say) 100 luxury units instead of 200 normal units.
It would make more sense to buy the plenty of resale units available. But they are not doing that. They are buying the unsold luxury ones.

Now, someone will say "ok buy we don't know how much the government is paying for them". True, we don't know. But we do know that the average margin of a developer on a condo unit is not 50%.
So, at least in theory, this is bail out.
They might not buy any units in Vancouver, especially not expensive ones. They could be unsold units in Coquitlam, or Langley, or Collwood, or Kelowna.
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  #267  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 1:46 AM
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They might not buy any units in Vancouver, especially not expensive ones. They could be unsold units in Coquitlam, or Langley, or Collwood, or Kelowna.
According to CBC more than half of those unsold units are in Richmond and Burnaby.
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  #268  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 1:57 AM
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According to CBC more than half of those unsold units are in Richmond and Burnaby.
There are 1,179 in Burnaby and 961 in Richmond, out of 4,376 in Greater Vancouver (and only 547 in the City of Vancouver). But the program will be for the whole of BC, and there were 571 unsold completed condos in Kelowna, and 598 in Victoria at the end of May as well.
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  #269  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 7:12 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
I'm making conclusions based on what the Prime Minister said. Things like:

"...and, at the same time, too many completed condos are sitting empty. In Metro Vancouver alone, around 2,500 finished units are standing vacant with no buyers. With higher interest rates and weak investor demand, developers are stuck. They don’t want to sell at a loss, but they also cannot afford to hold empty units indefinitely.."
You are cherry picking and misinterpreting Carney's remarks just to fuel your sense of outrage. This section is Carney describing the market - his full remarks can be found here: https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/20...-new-partnership-accelerate-homebuilding

The full section says:

Quote:
While there are still clear challenges in the housing market, there are signs of progress.

Rents are starting to come down and affordability is beginning to improve.

Rents are at a 20-month low, and the rent-to-income ratio has fallen to its lowest level in over six years.

In Vancouver, rent for a one-bedroom is down more than 6% compared to last year.

Now is the time to reinforce that progress, by tackling the housing crisis from every angle.

In B.C., not enough affordable homes are being built, so demand continues to far outpace supply.

And, at the same time, too many completed condos are sitting empty. In Metro Vancouver alone, around 2,500 finished units are standing vacant with no buyers.

With higher interest rates and weak investor demand, developers are stuck. They don’t want to sell at a loss, but they also cannot afford to hold empty units indefinitely.

The problem is that these empty homes do not just sit idle. They also disincentivise new construction, unsettle lenders and investors, and create a housing market that is, in effect, frozen.

The result is that many British Columbians still cannot find homes they can afford.
Later he describes what he wants to do and in the Q&A he expands on that:

Quote:
To that end, today, we are announcing the new Canada-British Columbia Partnership on Condo Conversion.

Together, we will leverage innovative financing tools from Build Canada Homes to convert thousands of vacant condo units into affordable homes.

One of the fastest and most effective ways to increase the housing supply is to convert vacant properties into affordable housing.

Over the coming months, our governments will formalise this partnership and will begin bringing affordable housing back to the market by this fall.
In the Q&A he is asked “How does the math on this actually work? Is the government just buying these units at retail prices to bail out developers who overbuilt?” and he answers:

Quote:
“Looking out at condos that have been built, that are unoccupied, that are going to sit there potentially for another couple of years; we are going to go and use the right financing mechanisms and convert those into affordable housing so people can move in and use those,” said Carney.

“Effectively what you are doing is buying them at a price and spreading out the financing because you can do that for the underlying condo at our financing rate, but targeting at a level that is affordable," he said. "It is a way to clear off on the books this overhang.”
Carney is pretty vague about this beyond talking about "financing mechanisms" - I read that as the gov't offering re-financing terms to the developer. Whether the developer takes a hair cut as part of that is TBD but, again, there's NOTHING in Carney's remarks that justify your outrage and claims of a handout.
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  #270  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 7:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ecbin View Post
Carney is pretty vague about this beyond talking about "financing mechanisms" - I read that as the gov't offering re-financing terms to the developer. Whether the developer takes a hair cut as part of that is TBD but, again, there's NOTHING in Carney's remarks that justify your outrage and claims of a handout.
At the very least a bulk purchase would easily net better overall pricing.

whatnext would prefer we solve the issue by cutting off population growth entirely and letting developers go bankrupt.
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  #271  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 7:43 PM
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At the very least a bulk purchase would easily net better overall pricing.

whatnext would prefer we solve the issue by cutting off population growth entirely and letting developers go bankrupt.
I'd like to solve it by developers lowering their price to unload the units. That's how housing corrections happen. They were quite happy to pay overinflated prices for land and drive up the cost of housing for every Canadian to shill skyboxes abroad.

Is this your first time living through a real estate bust? I've got news for you, even if existing developers go bust new ones will be created in their wake. Housing will still be built.
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  #272  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 8:06 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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I'd like to solve it by developers lowering their price to unload the units. That's how housing corrections happen. They were quite happy to pay overinflated prices for land and drive up the cost of housing for every Canadian to shill skyboxes abroad.

Is this your first time living through a real estate bust? I've got news for you, even if existing developers go bust new ones will be created in their wake. Housing will still be built.
They were paying for land based on the city zoning system of setting approvals far below demand, so where they bet they could get those approvals, they were willing to pay, given the governments wanted the prices to go up, so the government could extract all sorts of cash and non cash benefits.

Unwinding that system is hard, but it isn't the developers that made it. The municipalities did.
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  #273  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 8:26 PM
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They were paying for land based on the city zoning system of setting approvals far below demand, so where they bet they could get those approvals, they were willing to pay, given the governments wanted the prices to go up, so the government could extract all sorts of cash and non cash benefits.

Unwinding that system is hard, but it isn't the developers that made it. The municipalities did.
They all did. The Federal gov't turned a blind eye to the offshore money and part-time Canadians they let flood in after Provincial toadies like Gordon Campbell and Christie Clark went hawking Canadian property abroad. Municipal gov'ts wanted their share to provide services for all the condos developers wanted to shill for a handsome profit.

As usual the ordinary Canadian taxpayer is left paying up.
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  #274  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 8:35 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
They all did. The Federal gov't turned a blind eye to the offshore money and part-time Canadians they let flood in after Provincial toadies like Gordon Campbell and Christie Clark went hawking Canadian property abroad. Municipal gov'ts wanted their share to provide services for all the condos developers wanted to shill for a handsome profit.

As usual the ordinary Canadian taxpayer is left paying up.
Governments of all levels have made bank off of real estate. Let's not pretend otherwise.
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  #275  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 8:51 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
They all did. The Federal gov't turned a blind eye to the offshore money and part-time Canadians they let flood in after Provincial toadies like Gordon Campbell and Christie Clark went hawking Canadian property abroad. Municipal gov'ts wanted their share to provide services for all the condos developers wanted to shill for a handsome profit.

As usual the ordinary Canadian taxpayer is left paying up.
Foreign capital was only attracted because of the outsized returns the system the municipalities set up could seemingly guarantee. Where else in the world could 10%+ returns be expected in a stable legal environment?

Otherwise, why didn't Calgary and Edmonton similarly have run ups?

There has to be supply constraints compared to demand to create the ever increasing fly-wheel. Foreign capital was buying the shortage. It didn't create the shortage.
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  #276  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 9:42 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Foreign capital was only attracted because of the outsized returns the system the municipalities set up could seemingly guarantee. Where else in the world could 10%+ returns be expected in a stable legal environment?

Otherwise, why didn't Calgary and Edmonton similarly have run ups?

There has to be supply constraints compared to demand to create the ever increasing fly-wheel. Foreign capital was buying the shortage. It didn't create the shortage.
We seemed to have no problem keeping prices stable to about 2005, coincidentally about when foreign capital really started flooding in.

By the by, speaking of unsold condos coming on line, what is Westbank's ownership position in Oakridge now?
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  #277  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 10:27 PM
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We seemed to have no problem keeping prices stable to about 2005, coincidentally about when foreign capital really started flooding in.
Also when we started running out of homes.
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Believe it or not, problems can have more than one cause.
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  #278  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 11:14 PM
kikin kikin is online now
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Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut View Post
The feds are spending $3 billion on a buyout because people can't afford them.
so the governments need to stop taxing us to death where we work for more than half the year to pay taxes
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  #279  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 11:16 PM
kikin kikin is online now
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
There are 1,179 in Burnaby and 961 in Richmond, out of 4,376 in Greater Vancouver (and only 547 in the City of Vancouver). But the program will be for the whole of BC, and there were 571 unsold completed condos in Kelowna, and 598 in Victoria at the end of May as well.
who would be crazy enough to invest in Richmond now with Eby's favourite DRIPA hanging over all of our heads on top of all the government discouragement they also do
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  #280  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2026, 11:19 PM
kikin kikin is online now
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
....

When did we decide to suspend the basic laws of capitalism for developers? ....
a long time ago, housing and renting have been far from free market capitalism in Canada for a long time, the government meddles and ignores "the basic laws of capitalism" over and over again in this country, right now we don't even have the most basic guarantees of private property rights
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