Quote:
Originally Posted by RomanR27
Not as easy to derive carrier-specific international load factors as it was in previous summers with LGW joining the fold, a handful of final TS sun flights, and PD continuing CUN year-round.
Overall there were 35,270 seats available internationally in May - an 88.3% aggregate load factor.
* 18,752 on AF (they ran 15 round trips on the 472-seat 77W and 7 on the 328-seat 772)
* 9,504 on AC (16 round trips on 297-seat 333)
* 3,432 seats on PD CUN (13 round trips on the 132-seat 295)
* 1,990 seats on TS LGW (5 round trips on the 199-seat 321LR)
* 1,592 seats on TS CUN/PUJ (2 round trips each on the 199-seat 321)
So there were 30,246 Europe seats, and 5,024 sun seats. I'd be surprised if the sun seats were anything over 80% on aggregate given the final southbounds on TS were likely pretty empty. So if we assume 4,000 pax were on the sun flights, then overall Europe had an 89.7% load factor.
In this scenario, worst case for AF is 83.4% (which would assume AC/TS were 100% full). Worst case for AC would be 67.2% (which would assume AF/TS were 100% full). TS had such limited capacity that AF/AC being completely full would yield a negative LF. This is why AC's worst case skews so low as well since AF has almost double their capacity - even a 95% AF load + 100% TS would give AC a 77% worst case.
I am also really surprised TB is positive. MCO/FLL were both daily last year, plus LAS was 3x weekly. I also think BOS/EWR decreased year-over-year (at best they are even). This year on aggregate MCO/FLL were at most 7x weekly. I guess it goes to show how in the summer, it's UA with the lion's share of capacity - and they had frequency increases I believe from 8x (maybe 9x??) to 10x daily (plus ORD having a daily mainline turn for the final ~10 days).
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Thanks for the analysis and so TS being at least 82% in their first roughly two weeks is pretty accurate. We know, since you rarely miss posting loads for AC 888/889 that looking back a month those flights were usually north of 80% full to 100% full in PY. It’s very encouraging for TS since I’d hazard a guess they’re 65-70% Canada POS, which if true, means the first four inbounds were probably lower LF than the outbounds.
While breaking even like April wouldn’t have surprised me, I was truly surprised by the solid transborder gain because of the PD reductions. I think you’re right about UA going from 8x to 10x because wasn’t it last May when EWR temporarily reduced to 2x daily? However, even though May 2026 transborder was better than May 2019, the monthly transborder record was set almost two decades ago in 2007 with 64,223 pax.
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