Worldwide Demographics

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Cuba and Jamaica were stable, and they too had a White minority ruling over a large Black slave population.

The causes for the Haitian Revolution are not demographic, but are due to the French Revolution itself, which disorganized White rule over the colony.

Cuba and Jamaica were definitely not stable. All forms of forced labor were ended in Jamaica in the 1830s due to violent uprisings. This was 30 years before forced labor was extinguished in the United States.

Even though Cuba was the last of these three countries/territories to abolish slavery, Cuba also had a long history of violence between enslaved and overseers. This pattern carried all the way through to the Cuban War of Independence from Spain (aka the Spanish-American War). It's most likely that if the Confederacy had prevailed it would have collapsed in similar form to how colonial rule ended in Cuba, with violent uprisings of slaves against the elites. Cuba may have also joined the Confederacy if it had survived the Civil War, which would have compounded the problem of the eventual collapse of the slave industry on the Confederacy.

[westak]

This has been a fascinating and frightening turn to see so many non-Americans speak authoritatively on Black Americans. Anyway, here is the genetic makeup of Black Americans from Chatgpt, who come in all shades and skin tones.

On average, African Americans in the United States have a mixed genetic ancestry that is primarily of West/Central African origin, with varying amounts of European and, to a lesser extent, Native American ancestry.

Large genetic studies have found averages of approximately:

* 73–80% African ancestry
* 20–24% European ancestry
* 0.5–2% Native American ancestry

A commonly cited estimate from a major study is about:

* 73.2% African
* 24.0% European
* 0.8% Native American

However, averages can vary significantly by region and family history:

* African Americans in the Deep South often have higher African ancestry on average.
* Those in parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and Louisiana may have somewhat higher European ancestry.
* Individuals can range from nearly 100% African ancestry to having a much more mixed background.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It was a pretty common characteristic of slave colonies that the enslaved populations outnumbered the free populations. Before the Civil War there were a number of Deep South states that had slave majorities or near parity to free populations.

Percentage enslaved of total state populations in 1850 census

57.6% -- South Carolina
51.1% -- Mississippi
47.3% -- Louisiana
45.0% -- Florida
44.4% -- Alabama
42.1% -- Georgia
33.2% -- Virginia
33.2% -- North Carolina
27.4% -- Texas
23.9% -- Tennessee
22.4% -- Arkansas
21.5% -- Kentucky
7.1% -- District of Columbia

In St Domingue, the population in 1789 was roughly 89% Black slaves, 6% Whites, 5% free colored people.

In Martinique, we have more detailed censuses from the 19th century. More and more Black slaves were freed even before the official abolition of slavery by the French government in 1848. In 1832, the population of Martinique was 76.6% Black slaves, 14.7% free colored people, 8.8% Whites. In 1847, it was 60.8% Black slaves, 31.3% free colored people, 7.9% Whites.

In 1848 those 60.8% were all freed on May 22 of that year (after 2 days of rioting by the slaves because news filtering from Paris indicated that the abolition was imminent, which generated some civil disturbances, refusals to work, one slave was arrested and imprisoned, thousands of slaves then converged on St Pierre, the economic capital of the island, and targeted public buildings and houses of rich White people, and eventually on the 22nd of May the governor decided to proclaim the abolition before the arrival of the official notification from Paris).

Guadeloupe experienced the same process. In the British sugar colonies, there wasn't abolition of slavery on one particular day, it was a gradual process over decades, as slaves were gradually liberated and owners compensated (France compensated the owners AFTER the abolition of slavery, with the compensation process dragging on for years).

One interesting point: according to a paper I read, the death rate of the Black slaves of Martinique in the 1830s and 1840s was not very different from the death rate of the Whites and the death rate of the free colored peoples. This shows that by the 1830s, the treatment of slaves in the French colonies (and probably also the British ones, but I'm less sure that was the case in Brazil and the USA) was much more lenient than what it had been in the 18th century. A few years ago I read an interesting story about a White master in French Guiana who was forced to leave the colony in the 1830s because he treated his slaves too harshly, and the general opinion of the governor was that this man used 18th century methods in a century that did not accept the mistreatment of slaves as it had taken place 2 generations before.

[iheartthed]

Since today is Juneteenth I guess that makes this a timely discussion. The Confederate States combined had a free-to-slave population split of 56% free vs 44% enslaved.

Percentage enslaved of confederate state populations 1860 census

57.2% -- South Carolina
55.2% -- Mississippi
50.0% -- North Carolina
46.9% -- Louisiana
45.1% -- Alabama
44.0% -- Florida
43.7% -- Georgia
38.7% -- Virginia*
34.3% -- Arkansas
33.1% -- Tennessee
30.2% -- Texas

43.7% -- Confederate States

On the other hand, enslaved people only accounted for about 2% in the states that remained in the union:

Percentage enslaved of union state populations 1860 census

19.5% -- Kentucky
12.7% -- Maryland
9.7% -- Missouri
5.0% -- West Virginia*
1.6% -- Delaware
0.0% -- New Jersey
0.0% -- New York
0.0% -- Pennsylvania
0.0% -- Ohio
0.0% -- Illinois
0.0% -- Indiana
0.0% -- Massachusetts
0.0% -- Wisconsin
0.0% -- Michigan
0.0% -- Iowa
0.0% -- Maine
0.0% -- Connecticut
0.0% -- California
0.0% -- New Hampshire
0.0% -- Vermont
0.0% -- Rhode Island
0.0% -- Minnesota
0.0% -- Oregon

2.01% -- Union States

*Accounts for populations of counties that became West Virginia in 1863

[New Brisavoine]

So Virginia had a larger ratio of slaves than Martinique?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

So Virginia had a larger ratio of slaves than Martinique?

Within the current day borders of Virginia, yes.

[New Brisavoine]

Some stats from Jamaica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe.

At the 1844 census, there were 15,800 White people in Jamaica, and the total population of the island was 377,000, so they made up 4.2% of the total population.

In Martinique, there were 12,800 White people at the 1846 census, and the total population of the island was 126,000, so they made up 10.2% of the total population (it's higher than the 7.9% figure I gave in a previous post, because that 7.9% figure did not include the French civil servants and the French garrison on the island, whereas the Jamaican census apparently includes the civil servants and the garrison, so with the civil servants and garrison included it's 10.2% White in Martinique).

In Guadeloupe, there were 10,700 White people at the 1846 census, and the total population of the archipelago (mainland Guadeloupe, Marie-Galante, Les Saintes, La Désirade) was 129,000, so they made up 8.3% of the total population.

The French sugar colony with the highest percentage of Whites was Réunion in the Indian Ocean, which, at the 1846 census, had 32,000 White people, while the total population of the island was 105,000, so the White people made up 30.6% of the total population (the Black slaves on this island made up 59.4% of the total population in 1846, and the free people of color made up 10.0%). Réunion island was healthier than the Caribbean: no yellow fever, and in the 1840s it was still malaria-free (malaria arrived only in 1868). The higher elevations also afforded almost European climate.

In the French colonies in India, at the same 1846 census there were 1,100 White people out of a total population of 183,000, so the White people made up only 0.6% of the total population. Quite different from the sugar islands. The other big difference is there were no slaves in the French colonies in India. The population was 0.6% White (French, and perhaps a few other Europeans), 0.8% mixed French and Indian, and 98.6% pure Indians, which the census oddly call "Black Indians", but that's because the French colonies were essentially in Southern India where the population is much darker than in the north.

An interesting fact as published in the statistical yearbook of the ministry of colonies: at the 1846 census, 84% of the Black slaves in Martinique were owned by White people, and 16% were owned by free people of color.

[wwmiv]

1860 overall:

White: 85.6%
Free Black: 1.6%
Enslaved: 12.6%


Another wrinkle:

1860 Free Black % (confederate states bolded, other slaves states in italics)

1. Delaware — 17.7%
2. Maryland — 12.2%
3. New Jersey — 3.8%
4. Virginia — 3.6%
5. North Carolina — 3.1%
6. Arkansas — 2.6%
7. Louisiana — 2.6%
8. Rhode Island — 2.3%
9. Pennsylvania — 2.0%
10. Connecticut — 1.9%
11. Ohio — 1.6%
12. South Carolina — 1.4%
13. New York — 1.3%
14. California — 1.1%
15. Michigan — 0.9%
16. Kentucky — 0.9%
17. Massachusetts — 0.8%
18. Indiana — 0.8%
19. Florida — 0.7%
20. Tennessee — 0.7%
21. Illinois — 0.4%
22. Alabama — 0.3%
23. Georgia — 0.3%
24. Missouri — 0.3%
25. Maine — 0.2%
26. New Hampshire — 0.2%
27. Vermont — 0.2%
28. Iowa — 0.2%
29. Minnesota — 0.2%
30. Wisconsin — 0.2%
31. Oregon — 0.2%
32. Texas — 0.1%
33. Mississippi — 0.1%

[New Brisavoine]

Some very low percentages of free Blacks in the slave states. In comparison in Martinique in 1846 (2 years before the general abolition) the free people of color accounted for 30.0% of the total population if you include the French garrison and civil servants, and 30.8% of the total population if you don't include the garrison and civil servants.

Among the 578 so-called "Black" slaves who were freed in Martinique in the one year between July 1837 and June 1838 (a random year), part of the partial freeing of slaves that took place in the years before the general abolition of slavery in 1848, we have an incredibly detailed ethnic make-up that was published (ethnic make-up as the colonial authorities saw it back then): 3.6% of the slaves freed during that one year were purely Black people born in Africa, 31.1% were purely Black people born in Martinique, 19.6% were 3/4 Black and 1/4 White, 33.6% were half-Black/half-White, 8.3% were 3/4 White and 1/4 Black, 3.8% had an unknown pedigree.

If this is representative of the general non-White population, you get an idea of the general make-up of the non-White population of Martinique. People had a French word for each of these categories (I don't know whether similar words ever existed in English). The purely Black people born in Martinique were called "Noirs créoles" ("créole" has a different meaning now, it refers to anyone born in the islands whatever their skin color, although some people would not include the White people among the Créoles, but some other do), the 3/4 Black and 1/4 White were called "Câpres" (in St Domingue a century before these people were called "Griffes"), the half-Black/half-White were called "Mulâtres", the 3/4 White and 1/4 Black were called "Mestifs" or "Quarterons" (one-quartered, literally).

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Some very low percentages of free Blacks in the slave states.

The only two double digit contenders are slave states (that chose to NOT secede), and outside of that there seems to be no correlation whatsoever.

I.E. the actually accurate statement would have been “some very low percentages of Free blacks nearly all around in the U.S.”

[New Brisavoine]

Why France's net migration is only going to increase further... After the European Parliament for the first time since ever has voted this week a new EU law to allow the deportation of illegal migrants to 3rd countries when the country of origin refuses to take them back (which is the case, for example, of Algeria, which almost always refuses to take back its illegal immigrants in France, dozens of thousands every year who overstay in France and cannot be deported), Macron flatly rejects it. Until now the excuse was "but the EU doesn't allow it!" Well now the EU allows it, and Macron nakedly shows his refusal to seriously tackle the immigration problem.



France most likely already passed the 70 million mark earlier this year (we will know for certain only in December 2028), and there's no reason why growth should stop as long as French politicians refuse to take the issue of immigration seriously.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

1860 overall:

White: 85.6%
Free Black: 1.6%
Enslaved: 12.6%

It's remarkable how relatively static the black share of the U.S. population has remained. It was 14.2% in 1860 and 12.1% in 2020.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

1860 overall:

White: 85.6%
Free Black: 1.6%
Enslaved: 12.6%


Another wrinkle:

1860 Free Black % (confederate states bolded, other slaves states in italics)

1. Delaware — 17.7%
2. Maryland — 12.2%
3. New Jersey — 3.8%
4. Virginia — 3.6%
5. North Carolina — 3.1%
6. Arkansas — 2.6%
7. Louisiana — 2.6%
8. Rhode Island — 2.3%
9. Pennsylvania — 2.0%
10. Connecticut — 1.9%
11. Ohio — 1.6%
12. South Carolina — 1.4%
13. New York — 1.3%
14. California — 1.1%
15. Michigan — 0.9%
16. Kentucky — 0.9%
17. Massachusetts — 0.8%
18. Indiana — 0.8%
19. Florida — 0.7%
20. Tennessee — 0.7%
21. Illinois — 0.4%
22. Alabama — 0.3%
23. Georgia — 0.3%
24. Missouri — 0.3%
25. Maine — 0.2%
26. New Hampshire — 0.2%
27. Vermont — 0.2%
28. Iowa — 0.2%
29. Minnesota — 0.2%
30. Wisconsin — 0.2%
31. Oregon — 0.2%
32. Texas — 0.1%
33. Mississippi — 0.1%

I think it's worth noting that although they were low percentages, the free black population in some northern states was very numerous. PA had nearly 57,000 free black residents, and New York 49,000. Only Maryland and Virginia surpassed this.

Overall, in 1860, the North had 226,000 free blacks, and the South 251,000, though the border states comprised 118,000 of this total.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Since today is Juneteenth I guess that makes this a timely discussion. The Confederate States combined had a free-to-slave population split of 53% free vs 47% enslaved.

Percentage enslaved of confederate state populations 1860 census

67.4% -- Virginia*

*Accounts for populations of counties that became West Virginia in 1863

I went back and looked at the math, because it didn't seem right to me, using the data from this page.

Discounting the WV counties, Virginia had 1.24 million people in 1860, and 473,503 slaves, making it only 38% enslaved persons.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Overall, in 1860, the North had 226,000 free blacks, and the South 251,000, though the border states comprised 118,000 of this total.

For comparison, the 4 sugar colonies of France in 1846 had 85,500 free people of color. St Domingue, the largest sugar colony of France, had roughly 30,000 free people of color just before the Haitian Revolution in 1789 (42% pure Black, 44% 3/4 or 1/2 Black, and 14% 1/4 Black-3/4 White). Toussaint Louverture, the hero of the Haitian Revolution, was himself a free man of color (100% of African descent).

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I went back and looked at the math, because it didn't seem right to me, using the data from this page.

Discounting the WV counties, Virginia had 1.24 million people in 1860, and 473,503 slaves, making it only 38% enslaved persons.

Yes, this was an error. I just went to the actual census forms to verify and the corrected numbers are below.

The total population for Virginia in 1860 was 1,596,318. Virginia of 1860 had a total free population of 1,105,453 and a total enslaved population of 490,865. Of the enslaved population 472,494 were located in modern day Virginia and 18,371 were located in modern day West Virginia. Of the free population 747,136 were located in Virginia and 376,688 in W. Va.

1,596,318 (Va. total 1860)
- 376,688 (WV)
1,219,630 (1860 pop. in modern Va.)


490,865 (Va. enslaved 1860)
- 18,371 (WV)
472,494 (enslaved pop in modern Va.)

472,494/1,219,630 = 38.7%

[Bonsai Tree]

Native peoples, Indigenous, First Peoples, etc are all more commonly used now. "Native Americans" is a bit of an odd term in that most tribes really don't use it/like the term.

If possible, I try and stick with the tribal nation name. After all, most tribes don't have much in common culturally or linguistically (other than having been colonized by Europeans or European descended governments).