Real Estate discussions

[GenWhy?]

I really enjoy hearing out loud their argument that there is no demand for real estate - real estate is in high demand!

[kikin]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I really enjoy hearing out loud their argument that there is no demand for real estate - real estate is in high demand!

Vancouver still has relatively limited space and is arguably one of the better places to live in this messed up world, one could definitely argue that land here is still quite underpriced no matter how much socialist governments try to destroy the local economy. I think as demographics change in the next decade we will start to see changes in the politics that we have been taking for granted here for awhile.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by kikin

Vancouver still has relatively limited space and is arguably one of the better places to live in this messed up world, one could definitely argue that land here is still quite underpriced no matter how much socialist governments try to destroy the local economy. I think as demographics change in the next decade we will start to see changes in the politics that we have been taking for granted here for awhile.

Just would like to clarify for me to properly respond:
Which of the 3 levels of government are socialist?
What politics have we been taking for granted here in Vancouver?
How does this related to Todd's article?

[whatnext]

Quite the drop although it looks like it is offset by rentals. Not surprising when you price locals out of the market.

Lower Mainland's presale home launches in early 2026 plunges to just 64 units or 6% of a normal month
Kenneth Chan
Apr 2 2026, 4:04 pm

The Lower Mainland’s housing market is showing continued signs of steep stagnation, with new data pointing to a continued slowdown in presale activity and persistent pressure on resale prices, according to a market bulletin by MLA Canada last month.

For the month of February 2026, only 64 new presale homes across three projects were launched across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

That is a big drop compared to a typical February, which usually sees more than 1,100 units come to market. February 2026’s presales launches represented just about six per cent of the historical average....

...While fewer homes are being sold, more rental buildings are being completed.

In February 2026, 749 secured purpose-built rental units were finished across the region. But not all of them are filling up quickly. Only about 16 per cent of these units were leased, which is typical for the slower winter season .

For the month of March 2026, 379 secured purpose-built rental units across four projects were expected to reach completion.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metro-vancouver-presale-home-march-2026

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Quite the drop although it looks like it is offset by rentals. Not surprising when you price locals out of the market.

The story is saying developers aren't launching projects to sell. Kenneth misses the reason for that - the projects that are launching aren't selling. The MLA report for February shows 64 townhouses were released for sale in 3 projects in Metro Vancouver, and the March report shows only 6% were sold. With prices for existing homes falling, assignment sales starting to sell for less than buyers agreed to pay, it's not surprising developers are waiting to launch new projects. There were 3 more projects launched in March, with 73 units - probably more townhouses.

The report says "Presale momentum remains subdued, with limited new supply entering the market and activity largely focused on lower-density product. February releases were modest compared to historical norms, and March forecasts indicate continued restraint in launch volume. Buyer engagement remains selective, with demand centered on practical layouts, lifestyle-oriented locations, and pricing that reflects today’s competitive landscape. Developers continue to evaluate timing carefully, refining unit mix and strategy before advancing larger-scale projects."

Vancouver's market is holding up surprisingly well, but our investors stopped buying some years ago, so there's not too many unsold new homes and few of the crises you can see in Toronto. For example, on Parliament Street from the end of last year; "Distillery District Distress Sale! Secure a rare 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom suite at The Goode for just $880,000. This highly motivated assignment sale is priced significantly below the original purchase price, offering a prime opportunity to own in one of Toronto’s most historic and sought-after neighborhoods at a massive discount."

[whatnext]

Sure but the story is how historically low launches are. As you say the reason is nobody buying those that are launching. Will an end to the Iran Warx and hopefully Trump’s tarrif war change buyer sentiment? Maybe but prices will have to remain lower than recent history.

[jollyburger]

2024 Storeys interview with someone from MLA which explains the same things mentioned above.

GM: There [are] a lot of developers in this situation. We throw around the term "pent-up demand," but there's also pent-up supply to match that. It really comes down to the capital stack and how the projects are being financed. For certain developers, they have a clock that is started when it comes to their financing or holding their land, and just sitting there idle is not financially viable. They'll be more pressured to bring their projects to market in 2024. Other developers who largely use their own money — and perhaps have a piece of land that they bought 10 to 15 years ago at quite a cheap price — they have a bit more flexibility when it comes to when to bring their projects to market.

The challenge for a lot of the small-to-medium-size developers is that they need confidence in the market, in the way of precedents. For example, if a developer needs to bring a project to market at $1,050 per sq. ft and nothing has sold, presale, in that market above $950, it becomes a very big reach for them to think that they can sell at that number. Instead, as soon as one sells at $1,000 and then another sells at $1,025, the confidence increases quite quickly. It's almost a bit of a cat-and-mouse game, where some developers will eventually stick their neck out in certain submarkets and sell projects at values that give other developers confidence to sell at similar values.

People talk about launches as if they can occur [on] very quick timelines, from when someone presses go to when you're actually selling the project. That's a bit of a misconception. There is a lot upfront investment that has to occur to get a project ready for presales — municipal servicing costs, costs of the presentation centre, marketing. Launching is more of a two, three, and four-month decision, versus a one-to-two-week decision.

In terms of mindset, there's still nervousness in the market. There are more factors at play in the market [than] there [have] ever been — policies from all three levels of government, the uncertainty around new legislation, the cost environment, to name a few.

https://storeys.com/mla-canada-2024-presale-outlook/

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Sure but the story is how historically low launches are. As you say the reason is nobody buying those that are launching. Will an end to the Iran Warx and hopefully Trump’s tarrif war change buyer sentiment? Maybe but prices will have to remain lower than recent history.

As the MLA report notes, many developers are pivoting to rental. Last year there were 27,185 housing starts in Metro Vancouver, which is very slightly higher than the past 10 year average. As the population for the whole of Metro was estimated by Statistics Canada to have only increased by 6,300 between 2024 and 2025, it's no surprise there's little additional pressure for new housing, and rents are falling. As the population isn't expected to increase much, if at all, for at least another couple of years, it's difficult to see much that would change the prospect for new developmnet for sale for quite a while. Add in uncertainty about future home values and mortgage rates and many potential buyers might wait. Disruptions from tariffs and war won't help the cost of construction fall any time soon either.

[kikin]

sad that in governments' discussions about "affordability" it is never about fixing our long term economy by cutting government spending and income taxes and instead about effectively destroying wealth and subsidizing construction in an already depressed housing market...

home prices have been relatively flat for years while the overall buying power of the dollar plummets, real estate prices are currently artificially low already due to the fact that most working Canadians are starving and can barely make ends meet month to month now

typical of government though, screw things up so try to fix it by screwing things up even more, and it spirals towards a Venezuela type experience (but we can feel good blaming policies down south instead of the bad decisions made by ourselves in the past decade)

[jollyburger]

The Metro Vancouver Regional District (MVRD) is planning a significant reduction in development cost charges (DCCs), according to an MVRD staff report, answering the calls from developers and the real estate industry at large to cut fees and help new construction move forward.

On January 30, the Metro Vancouver Board directed staff to return with proposed amendments to its DCC Bylaw that would roll back the 2026 DCC rate increase, reduce the 2027 DCC rate increase, and extend the transition to a 1% assist factor over two additional years. The Board also directed staff to report back with options to offset the potential reduction in DCC revenue, which is used to fund growth-related infrastructure projects.

Metro Vancouver staff have now returned with two potential options that will see DCC revenue it collects be reduced by either $389 million or $246 million. (There is technically also a third option, as indicated in the report, which is to stay the course and make no changes.)

“Each option involves trade-offs,” said staff. “Option [1] transfers the cost to existing ratepayers, but supports the development community in advancing new housing in the region. Option [2] results in higher debt servicing and interest costs for Metro Vancouver, and Option [3] increases the organization’s risk profile by deferring additional capital infrastructure projects and deferring park acquisition. Staff do not recommend further Capital Project deferrals.”

Left unsaid in the report, however, is the recent announcement between the Governments of Canada and Ontario, which said on March 30 that they will “cost-match a total of $8.8 billion over 10 years, focused on housing-enabling infrastructure projects” that will support reductions in development charges by up to 50%.

https://howardchai.substack.com/p/metro-vancouver-development-charges-reductions-2026

[jollyburger]

Made-in-B.C. housing deal may cut against Ottawa's own plans

The minister has been noncommittal about whether B.C. is pitching Ottawa to take some of the cash and use it to resurrect provincial housing programs that her cash-strapped NDP government just pared back in its February budget.

That could include a lifeline for the Community Housing Fund used to build and operate affordable housing, and the BC Builds program designed to construct new middle-class rental properties.

“We're pushing for a deal here in B.C. that is as good as Ontario got, and that works for the challenges that communities and the housing industry are facing here,” said Boyle.

The problem with that, though, is that it may not match up with the ambitions of the Carney government.

The federal funding is designed to be cost-matched with Ontario and used to help pay for municipal infrastructure for cities that agree to lower development cost charges on builders by up to 50 per cent. It also goes towards the elimination of the GST on new homes valued up to $1 million—which combined with Ontario’s provincial tax means a 13 per cent reduction in that province’s HST for the next year.

Together, the political framing by Carney at the launch press conference was crystal clear: “We are reducing taxes and fees for new homes in Ontario by up to $200,000,” he said.

And it gets Ontario’s stalled-out private development sector building again. That’s a vote-getting promise on affordability for middle-class Ontarians.

Carney can’t make the same pitch to middle-class voters in British Columbia if the provincial government here tries to spread the cash around to affordable housing projects, homeless shelters, low-income seniors rentals and subsidized housing.

B.C.’s PST doesn’t even apply to new homes in B.C.—instead it is embedded in all the materials used in construction along the way. So the province can’t partner with Ottawa to offer the same tax break on new homes as Ontario.

That means the PM won’t be able to stand at a construction site somewhere in Surrey and say: British Columbians, here’s hundreds of thousands in savings on your home purchase, courtesy of the federal Liberal government.

The NDP’s vague “made-in-B.C. plan” already has Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim worried. He came out proactively and called on Victoria to follow Ontario’s lead on cutting development cost charges to help this province’s many paused or cancelled high-rise concrete condo tower projects.

https://www.westerninvestor.com/economy-...y-cut-against-ottawas-own-plans-12156399

[whatnext]

Interesting stat!

B.C. population drops by 41,000 residents, first decline in 151 years cools housing demand
Kenneth Chan
Apr 17 2026

British Columbia’s population declined by more than 41,000 people in 2025 — marking only the second annual decrease in the province’s history.

This is based on a new housing market report by Vancouver-based real estate and marketing firm Rennie that links the drop directly to shifting immigration policy and a cooling housing market. There has been a dramatic reversal after years of rapid population growth and intensifying housing demand across the province.

After adding hundreds of thousands of residents in recent years, B.C.’s population decline signals a major turning point. The report notes that the province’s only previous population drop occurred 151 years ago in 1874, when it lost 2,000 residents. This makes the 2025 decrease an exceptionally rare event....

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-population-decrease-housing-demand-slowdown

[whatnext]

Buh bye Helen….

Multimillionaire Vancouver developer jailed for ignoring court orders
Helen Chan Sun to serve 40 days for contempt after failing to heed frustrated judge's warning
Jason Proctor · CBC News · Posted: May 16, 2026 3:00 AM PDT | Last Updated: May 16

Developer Helen Chan Sun is the sole shareholder of a company that holds title to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Lower Mainland real estate.

But the multimillionaire will spend the next 40 days in a jail cell after repeatedly ignoring B.C. Supreme Court orders to come clean with a creditor about her finances.

A frustrated judge ordered sheriffs to take the 49-year-old off to jail Friday to start serving a sentence for civil contempt he suspended last November in order to give Sun a last chance to comply with his orders to fully account for her income and expenditures…

…. Now she's facing two separate B.C. Supreme Court bankruptcy applications in relation to a 72-unit late 1960s era South Vancouver townhome complex she had hoped to transform into a booming development boasting two 30-storey-plus towers and 180 units of social housing.

The contempt proceedings date back to a $4.5 million mortgage GC Capital Inc. issued to a pair of companies in 2018 in relation to a failed real estate project in Burnaby…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/helen-sun-developer-jailed-contempt-9.7202029

[Changing City]

Knowing whatnext's frequently expressed concern with the unfair tax burden that billionaires face, I'm sure they'll be delighted to read that our property market is sinking and 'Chip Wilson has won a legal challenge to lower the assessed value of his Vancouver waterfront mansion — long listed as the most expensive home in British Columbia — by more than $18 million.' So less taxes for the City of Vancouver. Yay!

[GenWhy?]

Tax assessments on our Client's buildings recently (for pre redevelopment and pre rezoning) made no sense. They would have two identical properties side by side (pre-assembly) and one went up by a few grand while the other when up hundreds of thousands or a few small million.

Same base zoning. Similar sized apartment building. Same year built.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Knowing whatnext's frequently expressed concern with the unfair tax burden that billionaires face, I'm sure they'll be delighted to read that our property market is sinking and 'Chip Wilson has won a legal challenge to lower the assessed value of his Vancouver waterfront mansion — long listed as the most expensive home in British Columbia — by more than $18 million.' So less taxes for the City of Vancouver. Yay!

Times is hard...glad to see Chip got some much needed tax relief.

[kikin]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Tax assessments on our Client's buildings recently (for pre redevelopment and pre rezoning) made no sense. They would have two identical properties side by side (pre-assembly) and one went up by a few grand while the other when up hundreds of thousands or a few small million.

Same base zoning. Similar sized apartment building. Same year built.

assessments in this city are hard to make any sense out of, they should definitely not be used as a guide for pricing a property for buying or selling

I've seen similar properties near to each other, one assessed at $650k that should sell for $750k, and another assessed at $700k that should sell for $650k

the assessors don't even seem to notice whether or not a suite has a parking stall or not which should be about a $50k difference downtown as well

[whatnext]

Can you spell developer bailout?

I am also curious how you spend $3.2 billion to cut fees.


Ottawa, B.C. to spend $3.2-billion to cut homebuilding fees
Rachelle Young laiReal Estate Reporter
Published 15 hours ago
For Subscribers

The federal and B.C. governments will spend up to $3.2-billion to help reduce homebuilding costs by cutting development charges, and they plan to help developers get rid of their unsold condominiums in the province.

The joint housing announcement on Thursday is Ottawa’s latest attempt to bolster the troubled homebuilding sector and condo market. Ottawa said about 2,500 newly built condos in British Columbia are sitting empty with no buyers.

Investors used to account for the majority of the new condo purchases, but a decline in the housing units’ profitability has caused them to lose interest. That has led to a drop in sales, buyer defaults and scores of unsold product.

“With higher interest rates, weak investor demand, developers are stuck,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said in prepared remarks for an infrastructure announcement in Vancouver. “They do not want to sell at a loss, but they also cannot afford to hold the empty units indefinitely.”...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...illion-homebuilding-fees-convert-condos/

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Can you spell developer bailout?

I am also curious how you spend $3.2 billion to cut fees.

Well, if you're either finding it hard to understand the article, or it's just really badly written and doesn't explain what's proposed, the Prime Minister's office spells it out.

(It's not just fees, and it's a 10 year program). The Feds are proposing to spend "Nearly $1.6 billion over 10 years – matched by British Columbia for a total of up to $3.2 billion – to lower development charges for multi-unit housing by up to 50% in priority communities, saving up to $40,000 per unit, and expand housing-enabling infrastructure such as water systems, wastewater systems, and local roads."

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Well, if you're either finding it hard to understand the article, or it's just really badly written and doesn't explain what's proposed, the Prime Minister's office spells it out.

(It's not just fees, and it's a 10 year program). The Feds are proposing to spend "Nearly $1.6 billion over 10 years – matched by British Columbia for a total of up to $3.2 billion – to lower development charges for multi-unit housing by up to 50% in priority communities, saving up to $40,000 per unit, and expand housing-enabling infrastructure such as water systems, wastewater systems, and local roads."

So again, how do you "spend "Nearly $1.6 billion over 10 years – matched by British Columbia for a total of up to $3.2 billion – to lower development charges for multi-unit housing by up to 50% in priority communities". You've just regurgitated their press release. Are they just handing the taxpayers' money over from one hand to the other?