Statistics Canada Reports II

[Harrison]

That UE guy really doesn't like Edmonton apparently lol

FWIW Downtown Edmonton proper currently has 4,513 net new residential units currently under construction or in planning/permitting, so it should see at least 5,000 new residents within the next 5 years, which will definitely keep movings things in the right direction.

[ssiguy]

I don't know where you guys are getting your population estimates from but I think you are dramatically overestimating.

If you go to StatsCan monthly labour reports, you will see the population estimates and they are vastly different from what you are projecting. Tor/Mon/Van are all in solid population decline territory and I think Hal/St.John's/SJ/Sher/Que/Lon/Wind/KWC/Ham/Nia/Bar/Kam/Kel/Vic will be fortunate if they see any growth this year. Ott/Win/Sas/Reg will probably see very modest growth. Cal/Edm will see growth but even 20,000 for each would probably be the most they will see as Alberta's population growth still leads the country but it too is a mere fraction of what it was.

The labour stats aren't the same as pop estimates but they do give a good indication of where pop growth is and with continued trend of sending TFW/students being sent packing and the goal of reducing non-permanent residents from 7 to 5% of the population, they still have a way to go.

For myself, I think the population should continue to shrink until we bring some sanity back to the housing market, youth unemployment drops significantly, and give our infrastructure time to catch up.

[kora]

Originally Posted by Harrison

That UE guy really doesn't like Edmonton apparently lol

FWIW Downtown Edmonton proper currently has 4,513 net new residential units currently under construction or in planning/permitting, so it should see at least 5,000 new residents within the next 5 years, which will definitely keep movings things in the right direction.

I think you're mistaking high density for vibrancy and attractiveness. Some of the worst neighbourhoods in Canada are high density. Just because more people live in a place doesn't mean it moves in the right direction.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by kora

I think you're mistaking high density for vibrancy and attractiveness. Some of the worst neighbourhoods in Canada are high density. Just because more people live in a place doesn't mean it moves in the right direction.

Oh come now, I hear Jane & Finch is lovely.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

If you go to StatsCan monthly labour reports, you will see the population estimates and they are vastly different from what you are projecting. Tor/Mon/Van are all in solid population decline territory and I think Hal/St.John's/SJ/Sher/Que/Lon/Wind/KWC/Ham/Nia/Bar/Kam/Kel/Vic will be fortunate if they see any growth this year.

QC and BC were the only provinces to show declines in recent months in the labour force survey and it looks like a lot of economic regions are still growing. The growth is slower in many cases than the high rates of a couple years ago but pretty decent by historic terms. It's true that the 3 largest cities are shrinking, probably because they had a higher concentration of the sort of nonpermanent residents who are departing.

Looks like the annualized growth rate for Halifax over the past 3 months (maybe a slower time of year?) would be 1.5%, which is not low, and is a bit wild if this is happening at the same time as a downward shift in the equilibrium of nonpermanent residents. I think the sense there is that the city's getting less of a "breather" than anticipated. NS had some robust economic growth recently and there are a lot of reasons to think there will be continued structural changes that will drive growth in Halifax, like greater defence spending and more focus on trade with Europe relative to the USA. The province's demographics and finances also improved relative to the baseline which has opened up things like tax rates being brought down closer to the national average (-1% sales tax cut, 35% bump to personal exemption, bridge tolls removed).

It's actually worrisome that the media bias is so negative there and there's already a "party's over" narrative, but there are infrastructure deficits that so far are not really being addressed in any major way.

[DavidK93]

Originally Posted by Harrison

That UE guy really doesn't like Edmonton apparently lol

FWIW Downtown Edmonton proper currently has 4,513 net new residential units currently under construction or in planning/permitting, so it should see at least 5,000 new residents within the next 5 years, which will definitely keep movings things in the right direction.

Downtown Edmonton is moving in the right direction, but very slowly compared to other metros, and I believe that's what his frustration was about. 4,500 units u/c or planned is not bad, but similar sized cities Calgary and Ottawa have twice that number and their downtowns already have more people. When I last visited Edmonton, the downtown felt the same as it did when I lived there 17 years ago, and in some ways feels less busy.

I don't know what the deal is, but for a city that's grown as fast as Edmonton the downtown should be seeing huge changes.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by DavidK93

Downtown Edmonton is moving in the right direction, but very slowly compared to other metros, and I believe that's what his frustration was about. 4,500 units u/c or planned is not bad, but similar sized cities Calgary and Ottawa have twice that number and their downtowns already have more people. When I last visited Edmonton, the downtown felt the same as it did 15 years ag, and in some ways feels less busy.

I haven't been to Edmonton since pre-covid but there are some negative pressures that have affected most or all urban cores in Canada, like online shopping, remote work, food price inflation, and a shift in younger generations away from partying or drinking. In the 2020s, a downtown needs some population growth and investment just to counteract the decline.

[Pavlov]

Originally Posted by someone123

I haven't been to Edmonton since pre-covid but there are some negative pressures that have affected most or all urban cores in Canada, like online shopping, remote work, food price inflation, and a shift in younger generations away from partying or drinking. In the 2020s, a downtown needs some population growth and investment just to counteract the decline.

Very true. Add this to list of negative pressures: the addictions and homelessness crises.

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by ue

Ok! Here are my 2026 predictions:

1. Toronto, ON - 7,150,000
2. Montreal, QC - 4,600,000
3. Vancouver, BC - 3,125,000
4. Calgary, AB - 1,880,000
5. Edmonton, AB - 1,755,000
6. Ottawa, ON - 1,730,000
7. Winnipeg, MB - 960,000
8. Quebec, QC - 910,000
9. Hamilton, ON - 875,000
10. Waterloo, ON - 700,000
11. London, ON - 640,000
12. Halifax, NS - 555,000
13. Niagara, ON - 515,000
14. Oshawa, ON - 510,000
15. Windsor, ON - 490,000
16. Victoria, BC - 450,000
17. Saskatoon, SK - 3845000
18. Regina, SK - 295,000
19. Kelowna, BC - 260,000
20. Barrie, ON - 255,000
21. Sherbrooke, QC - 245,000
22. St John’s, NL - 245,000
23. Abbotsford, BC - 230,000

Enjoy!

I know he's banned now but this list doesn't make sense.
Winnipeg is already over 960K in the metro. So, not metro? But all the other cities are the metro areas.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Spocket

I know he's banned now but this list doesn't make sense.
Winnipeg is already over 960K in the metro. So, not metro? But all the other cities are the metro areas.

The 2025 Stat Can estimate was 951,758
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Spocket

I know he's banned now but this list doesn't make sense.
Winnipeg is already over 960K in the metro. So, not metro? But all the other cities are the metro areas.

The last CMA estimates for Winnipeg, was 951k so he is estimating it will have grown by 9k.

[kora]

Largest population increase of municipalities, 2024-2025, USA and Canada

Edmonton: 40,524
Calgary: 39,825
Ottawa: 30,611
Charlotte: 20,731
Fort Worth: 19,512

US Census Bureau, "Population Growth Holds Steady in Midsized Cities Amid Widespread Slowdown"
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-city-town-pop-estimates.html

Stats Canada, "Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2021 boundaries"
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015501

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by kora

I think you're mistaking high density for vibrancy and attractiveness. Some of the worst neighbourhoods in Canada are high density. Just because more people live in a place doesn't mean it moves in the right direction.

Can you name one urban neighbourhood that is vibrant but not dense? (Not sure what you mean by attractive)

More people living in a neighbourhood might not guarantee that it’s moving in the right direction, but fewer people living there guarantees that it isn’t.

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by kora

Largest population increase of municipalities, 2024-2025, USA and Canada

Edmonton: 40,524
Calgary: 39,825
Ottawa: 30,611
Charlotte: 20,731
Fort Worth: 19,512

US Census Bureau, "Population Growth Holds Steady in Midsized Cities Amid Widespread Slowdown"
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-city-town-pop-estimates.html

Stats Canada, "Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2021 boundaries"
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015501

Unreal numbers.

But it's a very different storey in Edmonton and Calgary as to where they are going.

Calgary continues to build up much faster.

[Calgarian]

The slow growth of Edmonton's downtown is kinda frustrating. Edmonton has the potential to be a really neat city, but just never seems to live up to it. Hope there is some sort of catalyst to jumpstart growth in the core soon.

[Vantage]

too bad it's beyond redemption...

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

The slow growth of Edmonton's downtown is kinda frustrating. Edmonton has the potential to be a really neat city, but just never seems to live up to it. Hope there is some sort of catalyst to jumpstart growth in the core soon.

Does anyone think that building giant malls (i.e. North America's largest shopping mall) might have had anything to do with it?

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

The slow growth of Edmonton's downtown is kinda frustrating. Edmonton has the potential to be a really neat city, but just never seems to live up to it. Hope there is some sort of catalyst to jumpstart growth in the core soon.

1. Student housing grant will spur 500 of those units (alongside about 1200 more).

2. Attainable housing program should entice a few more to go.

3. Significant attention to crime, open drug use and mental health is beginning to see results.

4. Once the new LRT line opens in 2-3 yrs, that will really push Downtown forward and bring many more folks to the area who will be on foot.

5. New event centre at ICE District to break ground this fall, which will bring more events and entertainment reasons to come Downtown.

6. Something in the neighbourhood of 3500 units are planned for the area, of which 2-3 more projects should kick off this year which will really help.

7. Edmonton City Centre will eventually be reborn.

8. Continued pressure on the City to bring workers back to the office more days of the week.

9. $3mil has been allocated to spur pop up events, music, art and other activities which will help.

10. ATCO moving their local HQ closed to the CBD should have an impact as well.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Hope there is some sort of catalyst to jumpstart growth in the core soon.

A new arena ought to do it? Or maybe an office tower?

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by Vantage

too bad it's beyond redemption...

As the current most active developer in the Downtown, we respectfully disagree.

It dipped low, went dark, but like everything ebbs and flows and the outlook is much brighter than even 6 months ago.