CHICAGO: ORD & MDW discussion

[twister244]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

The reason for the FAA reductions is due congestion and compression during peak times on taxiways and runways. That causes terminal backups even with gates open and available.

Ok, But is this because of the choke points along taxiways due to construction? I have to imagine if the airfield was fully open, you wouldn't see this......

[Via Chicago]

have to imagine the oil crisis is going to cause demand destruction for airlines. who knows how long this lasts or how badly but ticket prices have already significantly spiked

[bluesxtreme]

https://wgntv.com/news/chicago-news/ohar...ing-to-new-data-mayor-johnson-announces/

[r18tdi]

Looks like they now want to cap flights at 2,708 a day.

FAA reducing scheduled flights at O'Hare airport this summer for concerns over safety, cancellations

[N830MH]

Originally Posted by r18tdi

Looks like they now want to cap flights at 2,708 a day.

FAA reducing scheduled flights at O'Hare airport this summer for concerns over safety, cancellations

Yes, they had to cuts 400 flights at ORD. They has to be reduced flights and reduce delays during summer storms. That'll helps. They won't have any problems during the flights.

[Dale]

Sorry if I missed it, but is it true that completion of the O'Hare expansion has been pushed back until 2034 ? *gulps*

[Steely Dan]

I'm sure ORD is not the only airport being impacted by this, but with Spirit's shutdown last night, and with Southwest retreating back to MDW in early June, Frontier will be the only domestic LLC with any real presence at ORD.


Other than Frontier's operations, this will soon be they only other domestic LLC service at ORD:

- Avelo has a lone seasonal flight to its hub in New Haven.

- Jet blue has flights to its two hubs in Boston and JFK in NYC.

- Sun Country has a lone flight to its hub in Minneapolis (and they're in the works to be absorbed by Allegiant, who dont serve ORD, so that might fo away too).

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'm sure ORD is not the only airport being impacted by this, but with Spirit's shutdown last night, and with Southwest retreating back to MDW in early June, Frontier will be the only domestic LLC with any real presence at ORD.


Other than Frontier's operations, this will soon be they only other domestic LLC service at ORD:

- Avelo has a lone seasonal flight to its hub in New Haven.

- Jet blue has flights to its two hubs in Boston and JFK in NYC.

- Sun Country has a lone flight to its hub in Minneapolis (and they're in the works to be absorbed by Allegiant, who dont serve ORD, so that might fo away too).

I guess Allegiant could theoretically come to ORD, but would they even survive? I think the problem with ORD is it's hard to get more than one or two LLC airlines to survive there. Maybe Frontier can benefit from this departure and beef up their routes to fill the gap left by Spirit, but if anything, I would expect UA/AA to try to capitalize on those open routes left by Spirit with lower cost basic economy fares.

Throw on top of all of this record fuel prices and people probably clawing back spending...... It's gonna be tough for any new airlines to break in.

This is also starting to make me wonder if this FAA cap will slowly become muted anyways. If airlines continue to cut routs due to record fuel prices. The announcements of new UA/AA routes came before the war began, and I bet there's a part of UA/AA that's happy they don't have to spend all of this money on fuel for routes that have been cut now.

The one thing though is UA is pissed because the FAA cut their routes proportionally based on Summer 2025 shares, not the percentage that was calculated to take effect for this year. If you wanna understand more about that, Cranky Flier has a great article breaking it down because it can be a bit exhausting trying to follow the gate allocation process.

https://crankyflier.com/2026/04/28/i-understand-why-united-is-so-mad-about-chicago-flight-caps/

[nomarandlee]

It goes beyond the scope of O'Hare, but I seriously wonder how this country only had two, now one, major LCC (Frontier and Spirit).

Meanwhile, Europe can enjoy a half-dozen LCC(Ryan, Easy Jet, Vueling, Norwegian, Eurowings), and an extensive rail network that you would figure would compete with LCCs.

Given that, I'm guessing this will give Frontier room to expand, when/if, the travel market rebounds. Or there will be another smaller LCC that will step into the fray and try to compete for a huge market of Americans who can't regularly pay the freight on the four major carriers.

[SIGSEGV]

Does this mean United/AA get some of their flights back?

[k1052]

Originally Posted by nomarandlee

It goes beyond the scope of O'Hare, but I seriously wonder how this country only had two, now one, major LCC (Frontier and Spirit).

Meanwhile, Europe can enjoy a half-dozen LCC(Ryan, Easy Jet, Vueling, Norwegian, Eurowings), and an extensive rail network that you would figure would compete with LCCs.

Given that, I'm guessing this will give Frontier room to expand, when/if, the travel market rebounds. Or there will be another smaller LCC that will step into the fray and try to compete for a huge market of Americans who can't regularly pay the freight on the four major carriers.

Frontier and JetBlue are both in bad shape and losing money. Basic economy offerings from the mainlines have pressured them and now jet fuel is a huge problem. I expect Frontier to fold eventually and JetBlue probably get acquired at a discount, perhaps by United who would get a massive JFK hub in the bargain.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by nomarandlee

It goes beyond the scope of O'Hare, but I seriously wonder how this country only had two, now one, major LCC (Frontier and Spirit).

Meanwhile, Europe can enjoy a half-dozen LCC(Ryan, Easy Jet, Vueling, Norwegian, Eurowings), and an extensive rail network that you would figure would compete with LCCs.

Given that, I'm guessing this will give Frontier room to expand, when/if, the travel market rebounds. Or there will be another smaller LCC that will step into the fray and try to compete for a huge market of Americans who can't regularly pay the freight on the four major carriers.

Don't forget about Wizzair!

[twister244]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Does this mean United/AA get some of their flights back?

It's all very confusing because I have no idea if the flight caps, numbers per airline, etc were decided by the FAA before or after Southwest announced their departure.

Keep in mind the FAA made a decision to cut flights proportionality by UA/AA based on their 2025 Summer schedule - So I doubt they had the foresight to account for Southwest's departure along with Spirit folding.

Also remember that Spirit sold their four preferential gates equally to United and American earlier this year. But, All that means is they have the gates.

My guess is maybe AA and UA can try to claw back a few more routes for this Summer if the numbers make it work. Oh, And nevermind the fact that United could theoretically try to file a lawsuit based on the methodology of how the FAA cut their numbers based on a schedule before a new allocation took effect for this year.

Again - It's all very confusing with a ton of moving parts......

[left of center]

The shutdown of Spirit now makes SouthWest's retreat from ORD look somewhat ill timed. I wonder if they can stop and reverse their move. Seems like a good business opportunity to gain all those former Spirit customers.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by nomarandlee

It goes beyond the scope of O'Hare, but I seriously wonder how this country only had two, now one, major LCC (Frontier and Spirit).

Meanwhile, Europe can enjoy a half-dozen LCC(Ryan, Easy Jet, Vueling, Norwegian, Eurowings), and an extensive rail network that you would figure would compete with LCCs.

Given that, I'm guessing this will give Frontier room to expand, when/if, the travel market rebounds. Or there will be another smaller LCC that will step into the fray and try to compete for a huge market of Americans who can't regularly pay the freight on the four major carriers.

I think it's more likely that Frontier will also cease to exist within the next 3 years. They have also been rapidly losing money and that was before fuel prices surged.

These low-cost carriers don't really stand a chance when they have to compete with the basic economy offerings that AA/DL/UA offer. They can price those seats at a loss because they have premium cabins and credit card revenue can make up for it and still drive healthy profits for the company. LCC's also can't compete with the loyalty programs that the big guys can offer. Sure, you can get a Frontier branded credit card and earn miles and eventually you can redeem for a flight to... Cancun? Meanwhile the others can offer you the whole world.

To top it off, labor costs are lower in Europe (especially for airlines) and airport fees the airlines have to pay are lower since European airports get more of their revenue from retail and concessions and less from fees charged to airlines.

Suncountry and Allegiant (who are merging) have been managing to compete because they operate more as travel agencies not just airlines. It's a niche product similar to TUI in Europe.

JetBlue also is likely to be liquidated (or acquired, since they have some valuable assets such as JFK) later this year.

[twister244]

Good points ^^^

Delta works with their little cutout just because they probably have a ton of business travel from their hubs, and also, they can leverage their alliance members to lure people in (Air France, etc).

It's worth noting though that these departures free up a bit, but not a ton of gate space. But it's probably safe to assume UA/AA will be doing everything they can to claw back some routes with these departures.

If Frontier were to leave though, it really only impacts flight caps, not gate allocation since they are using common use gates.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by twister244

If Frontier were to leave though, it really only impacts flight caps, not gate allocation since they are using common use gates.

If, for some reason, Frontier were ever to consolidate their split Chicago ops at MDW, and if Allegiant consolidates there as well after their acquisition of Sun Country, then Chicago's air market would be almost fully segregated by Legacies vs. LCCs between ORD and MDW, with only Jet Blue and Avelo with very small ORD ops and Delta playing both sides, as a very distant 4th fiddle.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If, for some reason, Frontier were ever to consolidate their split Chicago ops at MDW, and if Allegiant consolidates there as well after their acquisition of Sun Country, then Chicago's air market would be almost fully segregated by Legacies vs. LCCs between ORD and MDW, with only Jet Blue and Avelo with very small ORD ops and Delta playing both sides, as a very distant 4th fiddle.

With their growth now constrained at ORD I'm personally hoping to see United start flying out of Midway as well. A couple of gates with maybe 20-30 daily flights to their primary hubs +LGA/DCA/MCO. Southwest has pulled back at MDW so there should be room for someone else to step in. I'm not sure how gates are assigned at MDW though.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

With their growth now constrained at ORD I'm personally hoping to see United start flying out of Midway as well. A couple of gates with maybe 20-30 daily flights to their primary hubs +LGA/DCA/MCO. Southwest has pulled back at MDW so there should be room for someone else to step in. I'm not sure how gates are assigned at MDW though.

The ORD bottleneck is not going to last forever and the flight cap is conveniently timed with sky high jet fuel prices which are causing some cuts to marginal or worse regional routes anyway. Not worth the effort to expand to MDW I think.

What I'd like United to do is buy JetBlue for JFK and FLL. They really need a gateway to Latin America that isn't IAH.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by k1052

The ORD bottleneck is not going to last forever and the flight cap is conveniently timed with sky high jet fuel prices which are causing some cuts to marginal or worse regional routes anyway. Not worth the effort to expand to MDW I think.

What I'd like United to do is buy JetBlue for JFK and FLL. They really need a gateway to Latin America that isn't IAH.

Not a conspiracy. These cuts were planned before Iran was attacked.