The Bay Parkade Redevelopment | 315, 271, 239m | 80, 69, 68fl | Proposed

[LeftCoaster]

Rennies entire job is to sell real estate, not to predict it. There are no sales now so they downsized.

I doubt their already tiny analytics team has shrunk much as their clients are constantly asking for market updates.

Why on earth would Holborn want to 'artificially' raise their land value? Their tax burden would shoot through the roof.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Rennie (i.e. the people whose entire job is to read the real estate market's long-term future) massively downsized just last year.

If you or the devs are expecting another pre-pandemic level boom by the end of the decade, more power to you; otherwise, this may very well be yet another Holborn scheme to artificially raise their Vancouver land value while doing absolutely nothing with the actual land.

If no one wants to buy a luxury condo which idiot institutional fund is going to buy some overvalued land they can't do anything with?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

So they're going to try to raise their land value for a market that doesn't exist. If no one wants to buy a luxury condo which idiot institutional fund is going to buy some overvalued land they can't do anything with?

Why's Concord sitting on an empty brewery and an empty concrete lot under a viaduct? Why'd Holborn sit on an empty meadow for over a decade, and let their downtown hotel fall apart? They already missed their best shot ten years ago when everybody was fighting for shoeboxes; seems like the "idiots" see a point in raising land value without doing anything with it.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Why's Concord sitting on an empty brewery and an empty concrete lot under a viaduct?

They're not entitled. Holborn is literally purposefully entitling this site which will dramatically increase their tax liability.

They sat on it for well over a decade too. The fact that they are rezoning it means that has changed.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

They sat on it for well over a decade too. The fact that they are rezoning it means that has changed.

Then I suppose they know something that everybody else doesn't; general consensus is a downturn for condos for the next few years.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Then I suppose they know something that everybody else doesn't; general consensus is a downturn for condos for the next few years.

Like I said this will take a few years to launch.

Sounds like they know exactly what everyone does....

[s211]

Originally Posted by officedweller

"DTES-shoulder" adjacent area.

Remember when real estate people tried to market that area as "Crosstown"? That sure didn't stick.

[jollyburger]

Just for background on this project.

The earliest rezoning enquiry was around 2006 when they bought the property? 10-15 story towers?

In 2006, the developer made a rezoning inquiry to the City of Vancouver that outlined their early conservative proposal of floor space ratio (FSR) densities of 2.0 for commercial uses—including ground-level retail—and 3.0 for market residential, plus an additional market residential bonus for the retention of Dunsmuir House.

There would also be 500 parking spaces for Hudson’s Bay, replacing the existing parkade, in addition to the parking built to serve the redevelopment.

But city staff’s response at the time deemed the redevelopment scope to be unambitious and unworthy, given the size of the property and its location on West Georgia Street, which is considered by the municipal government as Vancouver’s ceremonial street. The site is also located next to the Expo Line’s Granville Station and Canada Line’s Vancouver City Centre Station.

City staff mandated that any rezoning application of the property will only be considered if there is a minimum of 5.0 FSR of commercial space, with at least one major office tower, as well as a hotel and lower level street-oriented retail.

https://verticalurbanism.org/news-articl...scale-development-in-downtown-vancouver/

The 2006 rezoning enquiry:

https://council.vancouver.ca/20061212/documents/tt3_BayParkade.pdf

The ARC competition proposals were ~2017?

This is the 2019 enquiry with OMA (all the details are blacked out)

https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/2020-120-release.pdf

More details here:

https://www.urbanyvr.com/bay-parkade-redevelopment-concepts/

[Glow Fun City]

Some more media coverage in the Vancouver Sun today:

'New territory for Vancouver': At 315 metres, city's first supertall tower could be first of more to come
B.C. currently has no 'supertall' skyscrapers, defined as between 300 and 599 metres in height. But Vancouver city hall is now updating its policy on very tall buildings, potentially opening the door for future 'supertalls'

By Dan Fumano
Published Mar 24, 2026

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/new-ter...ertall-tower-could-be-first-more-to-come

It includes a new update on the Heritage Commission's recommendation:

Then, on Monday, another advisory body — the Vancouver heritage commission reviewed the proposal and recommended retaining the heritage-designated Randall Building at 555 West Georgia St., instead of the architect’s proposal to retain only the facade. But the commission voted to “generally” support the project, and also supported the integration of Indigenous cultural heritage in the design of the plaza and buildings.

Reached after Monday’s meetings, project architect Gregory Henriquez said they were pleased both advisory bodies generally supported the project.

Preserving the entire Randall Building would require some changes to the plaza and the closest tower, but it would be nice to see more buildings here preserved beyond just their facades!

[kikin]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Like I said this will take a few years to launch.

Sounds like they know exactly what everyone does....

prices will rise significantly in a few years?

[LeftCoaster]

That the market could very well find a new equilibrium in the next two years and you will want you entitlements ready to time the market, and not be fumbling around waiting to get permits and miss the market opportunity.

[mcj]

With very little new supply coming on the market, specifically in the CoV for strata apartments, the equilibrium price should eventually reflect the lack of new supply. Prices may not rise significantly, and we do live in a drastically changing world, but prices should at the very least flat line from here if we are following historical trends for this market.

Add on stabilized immigration rates, rather than contraction we've seen over the last few years. Add on the FHSA that wasn't around in previous markets. And I could believe prices will rise significantly by 2030.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

That the market could very well find a new equilibrium in the next two years and you will want you entitlements ready to time the market, and not be fumbling around waiting to get permits and miss the market opportunity.

Becuase lord knows Holborn is always quick to take action on market opportunities.

[gaviscon]

Originally Posted by mcj

With very little new supply coming on the market, specifically in the CoV for strata apartments, the equilibrium price should eventually reflect the lack of new supply. Prices may not rise significantly, and we do live in a drastically changing world, but prices should at the very least flat line from here if we are following historical trends for this market.

Add on stabilized immigration rates, rather than contraction we've seen over the last few years. Add on the FHSA that wasn't around in previous markets. And I could believe prices will rise significantly by 2030.

Generally agree as long as AI agent deployments slow down from a stock market bubble pop and rising energy costs.

If not, I expect the finance and tech driven DT Van office market taking a huge hit by 2030.
My friend works at Amazon as a backend dev and he says he barely codes since November last year thanks to Claude
I think significant headcount adjustments are coming
The souring US-Canada ties and the slowing Chinese and EU economies also does not bode well for the tourism sector after the WC

These factors aren't considered when they project the condo market to rebound thanks to slowing construction starts and immigration numbers.
Immigration numbers are also still significantly above the 2015 levels (when express entry was introduced)
and it's also doubtful that the numbers will stay as high as it is when the Canadian government is pushing for productivity and tech adoption (which is headed towards automation)

I bet Vancouver's future is increasingly purpose-built and rentals...

[mcj]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

Generally agree as long as AI agent deployments slow down from a stock market bubble pop and rising energy costs.

If not, I expect the finance and tech driven DT Van office market taking a huge hit by 2030.
My friend works at Amazon as a backend dev and he says he barely codes since November last year thanks to Claude
I think significant headcount adjustments are coming
The souring US-Canada ties and the slowing Chinese and EU economies also does not bode well for the tourism sector after the WC

These factors aren't considered when they project the condo market to rebound thanks to slowing construction starts and immigration numbers.
Immigration numbers are also still significantly above the 2015 levels (when express entry was introduced)
and it's also doubtful that the numbers will stay as high as it is when the Canadian government is pushing for productivity and tech adoption (which is headed towards automation)

I bet Vancouver's future is increasingly purpose-built and rentals...

I expect increased employment in the mining sector will offset some of those losses.

However, there isn't an office component to this project and downtown still has demand for residential. I do agree that most of the demand will be rental going forward, however there's next to zero strata being built right now downtown.

[jollyburger]

Trump/Paradox seemed to do okay.

The Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver has sold out 214 luxury condominiums at an average of $1,615 per square foot, a record price for a new condominium project in Canada. The Trump tower sales included a selection of $6.4 million sub-penthouses, according to the developer, Holborn Group.

https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/trump-tower-sells-out-in-vancouver-3829268

And Little Mountain with the beneficial loan probably probably gives them the luxury to slow walk it.

[gaviscon]

Originally Posted by mcj

I expect increased employment in the mining sector will offset some of those losses.

However, there isn't an office component to this project and downtown still has demand for residential. I do agree that most of the demand will be rental going forward, however there's next to zero strata being built right now downtown.

There isn't an office component but a worsening DT Van economy means
people won't live DT in these luxury condo units. Hence what I'm saying is
the demand for condos will stay low. Sure, I think a technical rebound might happen since we're not building much, but long-term, I question whether
there will be sufficient demand for a project like this.
Mining sector mostly benefits rural and interior BC.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Trump/Paradox seemed to do okay.



https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/trump-tower-sells-out-in-vancouver-3829268

And Little Mountain with the beneficial loan probably probably gives them the luxury to slow walk it.

Great that a wealthy Malaysian billionaire was able to take advantage of BC taxpayers to blow an opportunity to sell into the biggest property bubble Vancouver has ever known.

[kikin]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

There isn't an office component but a worsening DT Van economy means
people won't live DT in these luxury condo units. Hence what I'm saying is
the demand for condos will stay low. Sure, I think a technical rebound might happen since we're not building much, but long-term, I question whether
there will be sufficient demand for a project like this.
Mining sector mostly benefits rural and interior BC.

living downtown is still ideal even if one works from home

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by kikin

living downtown is still ideal even if one works from home

Living downtown is ideal for some people. Not everyone wants the same things. I like where I live and would hate to live downtown.