California High Speed Rail Thread

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

^ All the more reason to neuter the defacto freight railroad monopolies and at least quasi nationalize the infrastructure. The idea a private corporation could rape a public agency like that is maddening. I'd love to see the total cost to the CHSR program to accomodate and shower particularly BNSF with so many free upgrades.

But BNSF is not getting any "free" upgrades. Where CHSR runs parallel to BNSF or for that matter UP tracks, grade separations are being built. But not to improve the freight railroad business, but to implement CHSR high speed business. The freight railroads are perfectly happy with grade crossings, the as is condition. In the as is condition, the freight railroads can service customers on both sides of its tracks, not just the side opposite of the adjacent CHSR corridor. But most of CHSR is being built away from freight railroad corridors, following highway corridors instead. More CHSR money is being spend on highways that rails today.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Have you been asleep? Inflation and interest rates spiked wildly after Covid.

Here is a relatively small project 2,000 miles away that has seen its cost almost double since 2022:
https://www.wvxu.org/politics/2025-12-19/western-hills-viaduct-cost-estimate-doubled

The busting of this project's budget has motivated zero controversy because it's a road project. Only public transportation projects get scrutinized by armchair experts.

The cost doubled in today's dollars which means inflation isn't a factor. Obviously I'm not going to compare 2008 dollars to current money. And the reason the HSR is scrutinized is because it's so huge with such vast sums of money. The project in your link is still well under a billion dollars even after the cost increase. Obviously that's not going to get the attention of a project currently projected to cost over $120 billion.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by mr1138

Exactly. The reason there is a huge difference between the earlier and later cost projections is not some kind of gigantic mystery. The same exact thing has happened to infrastructure projects of ALL KINDS, all over America for the past 10 to 15 years. This is the reason I earlier pointed to the RTD B Line Commuter Rail in Colorado (where I live). Per the article, the project backers put forth a ballot measure 2004 that included a cost estimate that "leasing the track from Burlington Northern Sante Fe would cost $66 million. But in 2011, the track owner, BNSF Railway, told RTD it would actually cost $535 million" As of 2022, the project is now estimated to cost $1.5 billion — about triple the original estimate.

Finding that the cost of land, labor, and construction materials literally doubled (actually, for Denver's project they have tripled) within less than two decades is not an "interesting revelation. " It is the obvious situation we are and have been in for decades and anybody who has been paying attention already knows this. The cost overruns are not some kind of "waste fraud and abuse" that can somehow be overcome by endlessly analyzing the situation.

You claim that it isn't a big mystery while backing up that claim with nothing more than the fact that other projects have had cost overruns. That's like saying a debilitating disease whose cause hasn't been identified isn't actually a mystery because other people have also been infected. Then you say it isn't a mystery that the cost of land, labor, and construction materials literally doubled without presenting any evidence that they actually have. Then you claim it isn't due to waste, fraud and abuse (in quotation marks even though I didn't say that) and despite not specifying what you think the cause actually is.

It's basically just saying that people should just accept it without question because it's happened (at a much smaller scale) in other places. I guess that's what "paying attention" means to some people.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

You claim it isn't due to waste, fraud and abuse (in quotation marks even though I didn't say that) and despite not specifying what you think the cause actually is.

I did say specifically what the cause is in my very first post. Land. Labor. Materials. All things that impact all construction project equally and that do not have their prices determined by the project management team.

Then you chimed in to say that it would be an "interesting revelation" to find out that the cost of land, labor, and construction materials has doubled in the past decade. No - it isn't. This is exactly what has happened and most of us already know this. This is not a good reason to question the fundamental need for high speed rail.

We are going in circles. The itemized cost breakdowns you are looking for for this project are almost certainly out there somewhere. It's not our job to go find this for you. Constantly casting doubt on the integrity of public officials and calling for investigations may work on the general pubic, but it sure as hell isn't going to work on me.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

The cost doubled in today's dollars which means inflation isn't a factor.

Inflation is always a factor. Interest rates are always a factor. Exchange rates are always a factor.

We actually had deflation of about 1% in 2010-2011, but that event was wildly outstripped by inflation triggered by the Covid stimulus.

Obviously I'm not going to compare 2008 dollars to current money.

It's not worth arguing with somebody who refuses to engage simple facts.

And the reason the HSR is scrutinized is because it's so huge with such vast sums of money. The project in your link is still well under a billion dollars even after the cost increase. Obviously that's not going to get the attention of a project currently projected to cost over $120 billion.

Again, wrong. Anything involving tracks, be it a small streetcar project or subway project or intercity rail, attracts WAY more attention than anything involving roads or highways (or sewers).

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

We actually had deflation of about 1% in 2010-2011, but that event was wildly outstripped by inflation triggered by the Covid stimulus.

That you would so disingenuously attribute post-covid inflation to stimulus and stimulus alone and not significant rapid supply and demand pressures globally is really revealing of your politics.

[New Brisavoine]

Average train speed across Europe. 123.7 mph in Spain and 121.7 mph in France.



At the moment I believe the fastest journeys in Europe are Paris-Strasbourg (246 miles as the crow flies, with the fastest train journeys scheduled this week taking 1 hour and 45 minutes), and Paris-Bordeaux (309 miles as the crow flies, with the fastest train journeys scheduled this week taking 2 hours and 8 minutes). Madrid-Barcelona, which is 312 miles as the crow flies (i.e. almost the same as Paris-Bordeaux) takes 3 hours and 2 minutes in the fastest trains, so the map above might overstate the average Spanish speed (due to the fact that the Spanish rail network is made up essentially of high-speed lines, with fewer traditional lines compared to France which had a more developed rail network than Spain).

In terms of mph, the Paris-Bordeaux journey (which is longer than a straight line between the two cities, as the railway line deviates somewhat from a straight line) is accomplished at an average speed of 156.4 mph and the Paris-Strasbourg journey at 155.5 mph (both with top speed of 199 mph, but the entire journey has a lower average speed due to sections that are slower + urban sections at the beginning and end of the journey).

In Spain, Madrid-Barcelona journey is accomplished at an average speed of 127.2 mph (a bit underwhelming, but I suppose they have decreased the speed due to the recent accidents in Spain), and the Madrid-Valencia is at an average speed of 130.0 mph.

So Paris-Bordeaux is currently the fastest train journey in the western world, and perhaps in the entire world (unless there's a Chinese journey accomplished at a higher average speed, but that's not certain considering how they have decreased the speed of their high-speed trains to save money).

Compared to California, downtown SF to downtown LA is 347 miles as the crow flies, so if it was built and operated like the Paris-Bordeaux line (i.e. actual rail line not deviating too much from a straight line + operating at an average speed of 156.4 mph), it would take 2 hours and 24 minutes to go from downtown SF to downtown LA.

[craigs]

California is not Europe.

[jmecklenborg]

This guys goes on and on for 90 minutes but misses major, major points:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xav6nrN6D5M

The only thing he brings up in his long-winded explanation that I don't believe has been discussed here is the Buy in the USA mandate which is making the trainsets much more expensive than they would be otherwise. The mandate probably wouldn't be such a big deal if the agency was buying 20-30 trains but instead they're only buying 8 (if I remember correctly) for the IOS.

His 90 minute conversation hardly strays from the Central Valley yet he doesn't at any point talk about the u/c alignment as opposed to the I-5 alignment (the endless obsession of this thread). He makes no mention whatsoever of the two super-expensive mountain tunnels, the merely really expensive tunnel approach to San Francisco's Transbay Transit Center, or that a significant percentage of the in-operation Caltrain electrification was paid for with CAHSR funds. He also completely misses the whole bit about signing Brightline as a tenant between LA Union Station and Palmdale.

And that made just wonder if Brightline HSR using shops in Las Vegas could turn at LA Union Station or if they'd need to continue to Anaheim (or would the operator want to continue to Anaheim?). While it's good that the system might have a paying tenant, it's bad that they can't purchase the same type of train and so reduce the per-unit cost and share shops.

[Crawford]

Brightline prolly won't exist in five years. I seriously hope CAHSR isn't banking on the Brightline scammers.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Brightline prolly won't exist in five years. I seriously hope CAHSR isn't banking on the Brightline scammers.

You've mentioned that in the Florida Brightline Thread as well and it's a shame because we love it down here (although it's killing idiots stopped on the tracks). The service is fantastic (trains are on par with European HSR in the interior) and it is not empty as you've claimed (full the 20+ times I've ridden it). It's filled the VOID not provided by Amtrak/Government.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

You've mentioned that in the Florida Brightline Thread as well and it's a shame because we love it down here (although it's killing idiots stopped on the tracks). The service is fantastic (trains are on par with European HSR in the interior) and it is not empty as you've claimed (full the 20+ times I've ridden it). It's filled the VOID not provided by Amtrak/Government.

As mentioned in the 90-minute video, CAHSR got federal money allocated to Wisconsin, Ohio, and FLORIDA when their respective tea party governors rejected money from Obama.

Florida was previously planning a much higher-quality service than what Brighline is.

Wisconsin's passenger trains ended up being sold to Nigeria:
https://railfan.com/wisconsin-talgo-trains-bound-for-africa/

Ohio's "Ohio Hub" plan hadn't signed any contracts so the money was simply shifted to California without any unfinished track or trains.

[TowerDude]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

You've mentioned that in the Florida Brightline Thread as well and it's a shame because we love it down here (although it's killing idiots stopped on the tracks). The service is fantastic (trains are on par with European HSR in the interior) and it is not empty as you've claimed (full the 20+ times I've ridden it). It's filled the VOID not provided by Amtrak/Government.

Not to get too off topic but that void in Florida wouldn't exist for Brightline to fill until the Florida government said no to Amtrak Expansion in the same exact place Brightline ended up going.

I believe that when Brightline eventually collapses Amtrak will take them over anyway.

[Busy Bee]

Also said no to FOX HSR thanks to Republican gubernatorial leadership.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by TowerDude

Not to get too off topic but that void in Florida wouldn't exist for Brightline to fill until the Florida government said no to Amtrak Expansion in the same exact place Brightline ended up going.

I believe that when Brightline eventually collapses Amtrak will take them over anyway.

Agreed, but, an Amtrak takeover would suck if we lose the amenities that Brightline provides on the trains (clean/nice restrooms, food/drink including alcohol delivery to seats, clean & comfortable seats). I haven't taken Amtrak in a while, but, last time I took it to NYC from Florida it was pretty gross.

Anyways...Back to Cali HSR .

[craigs]

There is a thread dedicated to discussing Brightline in Florida. This is not that thread.

[patriotizzy]

We actually had deflation of about 1% in 2010-2011, but that event was wildly outstripped by inflation triggered by the Covid stimulus.

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

That you would so disingenuously attribute post-covid inflation to stimulus and stimulus alone and not significant rapid supply and demand pressures globally is really revealing of your politics.

The person said inflation was "triggered" by the Covid stimulus. It was not said that it was the stimulus "alone." You're twisting his words.

Obviously there were many factors but one could make an argument for Covid certainly being a trigger point for the inflation. It's no coincidence given the circumstance. Ironically, it's disingenuous to say otherwise


https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
2024: ~2.9%–3.1%
2023: ~3.4%–4.1%
2022: ~6.5%–8.0%
2021: ~4.7%–7.0%
2020: ~1.2%–1.4%
2019: ~1.8%–2.3%

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by patriotizzy

Obviously there were many factors but one could make an argument for Covid certainly being a trigger point for the inflation. It's no coincidence given the circumstance. Ironically, it's disingenuous to say otherwise

Yes. One could make an argument. Like one could make an argument that the invasion of Poland was the start of WW2. Or the gunshot is the cause of the murder. Like that.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by patriotizzy

We actually had deflation of about 1% in 2010-2011, but that event was wildly outstripped by inflation triggered by the Covid stimulus.

The person said inflation was "triggered" by the Covid stimulus. It was not said that it was the stimulus "alone." You're twisting his words.

Obviously there were many factors but one could make an argument for Covid certainly being a trigger point for the inflation. It's no coincidence given the circumstance. Ironically, it's disingenuous to say otherwise


https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
2024: ~2.9%–3.1%
2023: ~3.4%–4.1%
2022: ~6.5%–8.0%
2021: ~4.7%–7.0%
2020: ~1.2%–1.4%
2019: ~1.8%–2.3%

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Yes. One could make an argument. Like one could make an argument that the invasion of Poland was the start of WW2.

Please take the out-of-state political discussion that has nothing to do with CAHSR to another thread.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by craigs

Please take the out-of-state political discussion that has nothing to do with CAHSR to another thread.

Actually, we have been discussing the cost escalation of CAHSR and how this cost escalation was, in large part, caused by inflation. This is not an "out of state political discussion." Inflation, and what caused it, has EVERYTHING to do with CAHSR. I find reading this discussion interesting and productive and would prefer not to see it stomped out just because some people think politics can be kept separate from discussions about how public infrastructure spending (news flash - everything about this is political).

If we cannot talk about the underlying causes for the things that influence the project in the title of the thread, then this forum really doesn't have much use left. I'm not entirely surprised though to hear that some would prefer to neuter the conversation until there is practically nothing left to discuss.

Unless you want to bag on the project of course. Or to use this forum as a platform for anti-transit or anti-urbanist astroturfing. In that case, it seems anything goes. It's no wonder this is a dying discussion forum.