The Bay Parkade Redevelopment | 315, 271, 239m | 80, 69, 68fl | Proposed

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

The most frustrating part is that these critical sites will sit empty and unproductive in its crippling state because of Holborn's unrealistic proposal

Meanwhile Calgary continues its ascent , becoming Western Canada's most premier city for young and competitive professionals

Calgary has always been more of a corporate city than Vancouver with the oil and gas industry.
As a result, it currently has pretty high office vacancy rates.

[gaviscon]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Calgary has always been more of a corporate city than Vancouver with the oil and gas industry.
As a result, it currently has pretty high office vacancy rates.

I was gonna comment that "their office vacancy rates have been going down with their aggressive office to rental conversion projects" but I'm surprised it's still sitting at 30%. Huh

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/artic...over-30-in-q4/

[gaviscon]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I don't see any reason why they can't change their phasing approach. This is still at rezoning stage, in a year when they're finished their DP they can build the hotel first if they see fit.



I don't understand this comment. THere is far more under construction in Vancouver than Calgary, and has been for well over a decade now?

Especially employment space. Vancouver has added millions of square feet of office space and Calgary has actually lost a substantial amount.

Their housing starts beat us by absolute number in 2025.
We're in shambles:

https://calgary.skyrisecities.com/fo....28661/page-66

Screenshot (726) by globalbusinesscentre105 H, on Flickr

[Feathered Friend]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Unless the developers are proposing a different phasing than the application, they are intending to start with the two residential (mostly condo) towers first, with the hotel tower development a few years later. Do you see the current housing market having buyers for over a billion dollars worth of condo units years before they would be completed?

The phasing shown at the UDP had the second tallest building with the strata, and rental housing, as well as the podium in the first phase. The social housing building on Abbot is also in the first phase, and would need to be completed first.

The hotel and other strata building are in Phase B, with the total timeline expected at over 8 years.

Originally Posted by officedweller

and there's more sizeable retail spaces too.

Oops.
I guess not.

That's the old layout. Since then, the city has since opted to forgo requiring a lane in the middle of the site. In addition to the hotel lounge, there's two restaurants, and 5 crus.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

I was gonna comment that "their office vacancy rates have been going down with their aggressive office to rental conversion projects" but I'm surprised it's still sitting at 30%. Huh

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/artic...over-30-in-q4/

If it's a really big office floorplate, it would be tough to convert and provide daylight to units. It's probably just smaller old buildings that can be converted.

Originally Posted by Feathered Friend

That's the old layout. Since then, the city has since opted to forgo requiring a lane in the middle of the site. In addition to the hotel lounge, there's two restaurants, and 5 crus.

Sorry, I posted the old one to show the old layout had a similar amount of retail space.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

Their housing starts beat us by absolute number in 2025.
We're in shambles:

https://calgary.skyrisecities.com/fo....28661/page-66

Screenshot (726) by globalbusinesscentre105 H, on Flickr

Shambles, but you're posting stats that show we had higher housing starts than THE GTA and basically the same as Montreal.

Different places in the cycle, Calgary and Montreal will probably fall soon.

[gaviscon]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Shambles, but you're posting stats that show we had higher housing starts than THE GTA and basically the same as Montreal.

Different places in the cycle, Calgary and Montreal will probably fall soon.

Well you're not wrong that TO is even more screwed than we are.

Half the Ontario construction workforce and construction-adjacent workforce is about to lose their jobs in the next 2 years.

Visit Urban Toronto and you'll have a hard time finding a project that's just starting up.

[csbvan]

27k starts is on the historic high side, not the low side.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

Half the Ontario construction workforce and construction-adjacent workforce is about to lose their jobs in the next 2 years.

Surely that could change? 2 years is quite a bit of notice on these jobs. At the very least it should make the labour aspect of construction cheaper and help turn things around.

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by gaviscon

1/3 of people who bought a condo in 2020-2022 are expected to see their mortgage interests adjusted higher in 2027...

What's the case with the other 2/3? Up or down?

Originally Posted by gaviscon

Also, with the risk of sounding like a doomer, I absolutely think AI agents will do significant damage to Vancouver's service sector and tech industry that's very US-aligned. We already saw this in January with mass layoffs at Amazon Vancouver

I heard from someone at Amazon, that around 100 staff members were impacted in Vancouver. But you are right, that more reductions will probably follow at Amazon specifically.

Originally Posted by gaviscon

Plus, I expect the economy to worsen over the next 3 years as the construction and real estate industries plunge.

100% agree that the Canadian economy is about to take a deep plunge. None of the US tariffs etc. have really had an impact on us yet thanks to CUSMA, but that is about to change with the re-negotiations this year and the Supreme Court decision won't really change any of this.

[Klazu]

First time seeing this angle. If this gets built, it will change the skyline forever and make it look quite lopsided. Not sure I am fan of it, as it is very unlikely that anything even remotely as tall would get built nearby.

The challenge I have with this project is, that the area is not very nice and is unlikely to get much better even if these get built. If I would be shopping around for a luxury condo, this would not be the location, no matter how fancy the building.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Klazu

The challenge I have with this project is, that the area is not very nice and is unlikely to get much better even if these get built. If I would be shopping around for a luxury condo, this would not be the location, no matter how fancy the building.

This is a better shot showing it as a "DTES-shoulder" adjacent area.
The Post is similar, but you don't live there.
Tall towers at the Four Seasons site or the Hudson's Bay site would "even out" the skyline a bit.
... and the ultimate redevelopment of The Burrard Building (Georgia & Burrard) which is a "Higher Buildings" site would also do so.


https://www.instagram.com/p/DVfKw0Ml...VhZWk5bQ%3D%3D

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Klazu

First time seeing this angle. If this gets built, it will change the skyline forever and make it look quite lopsided. Not sure I am fan of it, as it is very unlikely that anything even remotely as tall would get built nearby.

The challenge I have with this project is, that the area is not very nice and is unlikely to get much better even if these get built. If I would be shopping around for a luxury condo, this would not be the location, no matter how fancy the building.

Sure it's dependent on the economy/real estate market but you could conceivably see another supertall in Vancouver and a bunch of 50-60 storeys (NE False Creek, St Paul's redevelopment, etc.) will probably balance it out but even then isn't the whole notion about worrying about table top shapes to the skyline old news?



https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanc...inking-skyline

[Migrant_Coconut]

We are of course assuming this even gets built. Holborn has a track record of sitting on their Vancouver properties and doing nothing with them... now they're going to build the city's tallest condo in the middle of a slump?

[Vantage]

I won't believe it until it gets topped out.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

We are of course assuming this even gets built. Holborn has a track record of sitting on their Vancouver properties and doing nothing with them... now they're going to build the city's tallest condo in the middle of a slump?

I thought this would be obvious but they're not building it today.

Even if they get their rezoning the first half of this year there is still a year or so for a DP, and then another year for BP and construction drawings.

This is at least 2 to 3 years out in a best case scenario. Who knows what the condo market will look like then. If it's still depressed they will of course hold off before launching sales, if it isn't then they will have timed the market beautifully and we'll get to watch something big get built here.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I thought this would be obvious but they're not building it today.

Even if they get their rezoning the first half of this year there is still a year or so for a DP, and then another year for BP and construction drawings.

This is at least 2 to 3 years out in a best case scenario. Who knows what the condo market will look like then. If it's still depressed they will of course hold off before launching sales, if it isn't then they will have timed the market beautifully and we'll get to watch something big get built here.

Exactly this. They see the political opportunity to get approval here, and with the approvals timelines, hopefully they time the market right and start sooner rather than later. If not, they wait.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I thought this would be obvious but they're not building it today.

Even if they get their rezoning the first half of this year there is still a year or so for a DP, and then another year for BP and construction drawings.

This is at least 2 to 3 years out in a best case scenario. Who knows what the condo market will look like then. If it's still depressed they will of course hold off before launching sales, if it isn't then they will have timed the market beautifully and we'll get to watch something big get built here.

Why not add their standard 17+ year foot dragging to this one?

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Exactly this. They see the political opportunity to get approval here, and with the approvals timelines, hopefully they time the market right and start sooner rather than later. If not, they wait.

I dunno if I was them I wouldn't rezone it now because the tax bill would explode

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

This is at least 2 to 3 years out in a best case scenario. Who knows what the condo market will look like then. If it's still depressed they will of course hold off before launching sales, if it isn't then they will have timed the market beautifully and we'll get to watch something big get built here.

Rennie (i.e. the people whose entire job is to read the real estate market's long-term future) massively downsized just last year.

If you or the devs are expecting another pre-pandemic level boom by the end of the decade, more power to you; otherwise, this may very well be yet another Holborn scheme to artificially raise their Vancouver land value while doing absolutely nothing with the actual land.