Quote:
Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca
Yes, generally that's the case. It's a decent indicator for what's coming, but much like housing starts it has scales also, as not all permits that are applied for at the same time start at the same time, some might be two weeks after application and some might be 6 months.
Even though housing starts have a lag, I like that they are an actual start.
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I agree, and I don't think CMHC Housing Starts numbers really have a lag, (that's ssiguy's view) but it's true they represent when the project reaches ground level. In some places, and with many projects, that's pretty much irrelevent, but where there's a significant hole for parking, it can easily be a year or two before construction reaches the surface.
CMHC's logic seems reasonable - sometimes there can be a significant delay between excavation and construction which could generate misleading data. Onni's second phase of Gilmore Place in Burnaby now proposes 1,770 apartments in 3 towers, and they started excavating the underground parkade in 2022, but have yet to start sales of the units or construction of the parkade - there's just a big hole which is likely to be around for several more years.