Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Goode
It's intriguing how airlines have been cutting capacity on US routes, particularly at YHZ (smaller airplanes/less frequency for some US carriers; JetBlue backed out; Porter dropped YHZ-TPA, etc.) yet transborder at YHZ for 2025 actually increased by 8.5%.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonToms
For 2025 we had a number of US airlines actually increase their capacity. Basically they were building back their schedules after the pandemic. American Airlines added their daily DCA route on the Airbus A319 whereas it used to be only once weekly service in 2024. United Airlines went double daily to Newark from the end of October to the beginning of January 2026 rather than the once daily service that they offered over that timeframe in 2024. Yes Porter did do away with their Tampa (TPA) route for the season, but their Orlando (MCO) service is operating a longer season than it did in 2024/2025. Unfortunately, JetBlue never even started. Who knows what went down there. I hazard to guess they are just financially weak at the moment as they have done a lot of route reductions across their network in recent times. 2026 should be an interesting year with the addition of daily United Airlines service to Chicago (ORD), new weekly Washington Dulles (IAD) service also on United, new weekly Chicago (ORD) service on American Airlines, American Airlines increasing their LaGuardia (LGA) to double daily on weekends, new weekly service to Boston (BOS) on Delta Airlines and daily service from Detroit (DTW) on WestJet on a 737 max aircraft. This is a lot of new capacity for YHZ. I expect YHZ will see increased US traffic from 2025 to 2026 once again. Much of that might be due to increased US visitation as opposed to increased Canadian visitation. Only time will tell.
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My thoughts, observations, and anecdotes:
- I think the strength of the year round core routes to EWR and BOS is a big contributor to the transborder increase. I fly those routes 2-3x per month and it's not uncommon for my flights to be at or near capacity. I know there's always a lot of fanfare around fancy seasonal routes and new destinations but the volume and predictability comes from the stuff that runs every day, year round.
- I've made a bit of a shift in my ski travel itineraries these last two seasons. In the past, I've connected through YYZ/YUL going westbound but I've made the switch to connecting exclusively through EWR. I gain the advantage of pre-clearing here at home instead of mid-journey, and have found EWR's renovated terminals and excellent lounges to be far superior to the "experience" at YYZ/YUL.
- From a passenger perspective, I greatly prefer AA's E175s compared to their A319s - 12J vs 8J and that solo seat on the A (port) side is lovely when you're travelling solo.
- I've been seeing some good downward pressure on transborder fares this summer with the all the route expansions from the US3. Amazing what a little bit of competition can do to the AC and WS cartel... (It also says a lot about PD that they are unwilling to compete in the transborder market here in YHZ)