Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Poland is attracting LOTS of immigrants. In the space of 10 years, the immigrant population of Poland has gone from just 100,000 to 2.5 million (other sources say 2.8 million).

In terms of population size and economy, I think Italy is going to ressemble more and more Spain, and less and less France. It's only a matter of time before Spain passes Italy in terms of total population. And their GDP is getting closer to Italy's every year.

Census counted 445k foreigners permanently living in Poland and 1.4 million including temporaly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Poland#Immigration_and_foreign_nationals

1. Ukrainians: 969k (we all know what happened in 2022)
2. Belarussians: 143k
3. Indians: 25k (40x less than Ukrainians)
4. Georgians: 23k
5. Russians: 17k
6. Turkish: 14k

Virtually no one migrates there, except people from neighbouring countries fleeing wars or dictatorships. There are more foreigners in Berlin than in the entire Poland.

Despite this massive influx of Ukrainians (that won't repeat as everybody who would leave had left), Poland population atarted to decline fast. They managed to be on 38 million people for three decades (1990-2020). It fell below in 2021 and by the current trend they will fall below 37 million in 2027-2028, losing 1 million people in mere 6-7 years.

In 2025 there were only 238k births in Poland (despite all the massive amount of Ukrainian women moving there) and 406k deaths were recorded. In 2009 there were 417k births; 588k in 1988, 721k births in 1983. As this 1983 is already leaving the childbearing age, I expect births numbers to collapse even further. The birth curve has been becoming remarkbly similar to South Korea's.

[Crawford]

LOL, there aren't 2 million foreigners in Berlin. Poland, long-term is in very good position relative to Italy, which except for a few industrial northern cities, is basically a theme park. Granted, a beautiful theme park with wonderful food and amazing history, but not a serious economy, outside of a few legacy industries like fashion.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

LOL, there aren't 2 million foreigners in Berlin. Poland, long-term is in very good position relative to Italy, which except for a few industrial northern cities, is basically a theme park. Granted, a beautiful theme park, with wonderful food, but not a serious economy.

There aren't 2 million foreigners in Poland.

Italy is the 2nd largest industrial power in Europe, behind Germany only. They have multinationals operating all over the world, their luxury products are unreplaceable and worth hundreds of billions.

What does Poland have? Potatoes, German plants looking for cheaper labour, EU subsidies and a collapsing demographic? I'm not optimistic with Italy either, but all their problems are also present in Poland as well whereas Poland has any of the assets Italy does.

P.S. There are 1.2 million foreigners in Berlin-Brandenburg (1 mi and 200k) as opposed to 1.4 million in Poland.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

In 2025 there were only 238k births in Poland (despite all the massive amount of Ukrainian women moving there)

And just 355,000 births in Italy. Interestingly, there are now more births in France than in Italy and Poland combined, two countries with a population of 96 million people.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Italy is the 2nd largest industrial power in Europe, behind Germany only. They have multinationals operating all over the world, their luxury products are unreplaceable and worth hundreds of billions.

Their luxury products are owned by French and bought by Americans and Chinese. Italy just has the workshops. The profits go to LVMH, Kering, etc.

And Germany is really the only industrial power left in Europe.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

There aren't 2 million foreigners in Poland.

There were 1.7 million immigrants in Poland in 2024.

https://www.pragueprocess.eu/en/countries/894-poland?tmpl=component&ml=1

What does Poland have? Potatoes, German plants looking for cheaper labour, EU subsidies and a collapsing demographic? I'm not optimistic with Italy either, but all their problems are also present in Poland as well whereas Poland has any of the assets Italy does.

GDP 2015 >> 2025:
- Italy: 1,663 bn € >> 2,252 bn € (i.e. +35%)
- Poland: 480 bn € >> 920 bn € (i.e. +92%)

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Their luxury products are owned by French and bought by Americans and Chinese. Italy just has the workshops. The profits go to LVMH, Kering, etc.

And Germany is really the only industrial power left in Europe.

"Just" the workshops. The jobs are there, like Jaguar is still British regardless the nationality of its owner. Italy has plenty of multinationals, an economy way more complex and much bigger than Poland's. Italy attracts immigrants, Poland doesn't.

And when it comes to demographics, Poland is now as in a worse position than Italy. They just arrived later but they will have a massive aging problem ahead.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

And just 355,000 births in Italy. Interestingly, there are now more births in France than in Italy and Poland combined, two countries with a population of 96 million people.

Italy's declining births has been a major issue since the 1990's. Poland is now facing a collapse similar to South Korea's. 2025 data for TFR is not available, but Poland might fall below 1.0 joining South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

https://www.pragueprocess.eu/en/countries/894-poland?tmpl=component&ml=1

That's not a source. It goes to UN where all data is not reliable. Where are the numbers breakdown for us to check? Wikipedia takes straight from the Polish Statistical Office and it shows 1.4 million, 95% of them from the former USSR. And even if those UN figures were reliable, it's 1.7 million, not 2.8 million as you stated previously.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

GDP 2015 >> 2025:
- Italy: 1,663 bn € >> 2,252 bn € (i.e. +35%)
- Poland: 480 bn € >> 920 bn € (i.e. +92%)

I'm familiar with this period. But that doesn't mean Poland will grow 92% every decade till the end of the times. We're discussing future here, whether each country has a good prospect. Italy has lots of issues and Poland will be dealing with those same issues very shortly.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Italy's declining births has been a major issue since the 1990's. Poland is now facing a collapse similar to South Korea's. 2025 data for TFR is not available, but Poland might fall below 1.0 joining South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong.

Comparing Poland and Italy's natality is like comparing the 🞵🞵🞵 performance of an 88 y/o guy vs an 85 y/o. The difference is rather marginal...

[Crawford]

Italy attracts immigrants bc it's next to Africa, mostly. It's the most convenient European destination for destitute Africans. And then it has traditionally attracted some nearby Eastern Europeans due to language issues, as Albanians and Balkans traditionally learned Italian. But it doesn't get the same highly educated immigrants as in Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands, etc.

And yeah, Italy boasts an amazing fashion industry. But the profits and decision-making for Gucci, Balenciaga, etc. are in Paris, at to a lesser extent NYC. Paris is the fashion capital. LVMH and Kering have primary offices in Paris and secondary offices in NYC.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Comparing Poland and Italy's natality is like comparing the 🞵🞵🞵 performance of an 88 y/o guy vs an 85 y/o. The difference is rather marginal...

Again, you're looking at the picture and I'm look to the movie.

It's like the comparison between Japan vs South Korea. Japan is already dealing with the declining because it transitioned much earlier. When SK hit this stage, however, it's population collapse will be way more dramatic than the Japanese.

This recent trend in Poland shows they're following the South Korean path. Deaths are about to outnumber births to a 2:1 ratio. Probably this year. They got there before Italy.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Italy attracts immigrants bc it's next to Africa, mostly. It's the most convenient European destination for destitute Africans. And then it has traditionally attracted some nearby Eastern Europeans due to language issues, as Albanians and Balkans traditionally learned Italian. But it doesn't get the same highly educated immigrants as in Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands, etc.

Economies need all sorts of people not only on tech. There are 2.5 million Europeans in Italy; 1.2 million Africans, 1.2 million Asians, 370k from South America (not counting the Brazilian and Argentinians holding citizenship.

They attract people from everywhere in the world and if they decide go to Canada-style, they could do much better.

Poland, even with a booming economy, got 1.1 million Soviet Slavs (90% due Russian-Ukrainian War), 35k Indians, 14k Turkish. That's it. And those less than 100k non-Whites were enough to cause havoc on Poland's politics. Another interesting case of a place with no immigrants (and lots of emigrants) whose politics evolve around anti-immigrant panic.

Originally Posted by Crawford

And yeah, Italy boasts an amazing fashion industry. But the profits and decision-making for Gucci, Balenciaga, etc. are in Paris, at to a lesser extent NYC. Paris is the fashion capital. LVMH and Kering have primary offices in Paris and secondary offices in NYC.

Fashion industry supports hundreds of thousands of well paid jobs in Italy. And they have the carmakers, a very diversified industrial portfolio, lots of accumulated wealth, tourism and plenty of soft power.

Poland has nothing aside German maquiladoras, potatoes, coal, cold, dull landscapes, a very insular culture and an impossible language. Its GDP is still a fraction of Italy's and even not considering immigration, they have an even worse demographics.

I agree with you that Italy is facing very serious issues for at least 20 years now, it's definitely less promising than Spain, but much better positioned than Poland. Eastern Europe in its entirety is beyond hope at this point.

[New Brisavoine]

Population density of Metropolitan France in 1876, 1936, and 2017.

[New Brisavoine]

Population density of Spain in 1960 and 2024.

[New Brisavoine]

It's not just New Caledonia that is emptying. New Zealand is emptying too.

Jacinda Ardern joins New Zealand’s ‘brain drain’ to Australia

Financial Times
February 27, 2026

Former PM is the latest addition to a wave of emigration spurred by weak economic prospects at home

Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s announcement this week that her family was relocating to Sydney came as little surprise in her home country — hundreds of thousands have already moved “across the ditch” to Australia.

Ardern, who held a fellowship at Harvard after standing down three years ago, was spotted house hunting in Sydney’s affluent northern suburbs, making her the latest in a wave of her compatriots to choose Australia over New Zealand as the latter’s economy has veered towards recession.

That exodus has renewed fears of a “brain drain” and skills shortage in New Zealand. About 66,300 New Zealand citizens left their country in the year to December, taking the total to almost 200,000 in the past three years — more than half of them moving to Australia, according to immigration data.

Australia’s foreign office estimates the country is now home to about 670,000 New Zealanders, compared with a population at home of 5.3mn. By contrast, about 75,000 Australians live in New Zealand.

[...]

https://www.ft.com/content/7b69548f-93e1-4fd5-9f6a-e5ed1fb9cfe6

[MolsonExport]

[hipster duck]

The industrialization and automation of agriculture is very apparent in the French and Spanish population density maps. Amazing to see that the area beyond Madrid's hinterland used to be much more populated.

In Canada and the US, you can see the impact of that from state and province-level population figures. Saskatchewan's population was more or less stagnant from 1931 until 2006, at around 900,000 people. Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas also basically had no growth between the 1920s and 1980s, but have picked up gradually since then.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Italy attracts immigrants bc it's next to Africa, mostly. It's the most convenient European destination for destitute Africans. And then it has traditionally attracted some nearby Eastern Europeans due to language issues, as Albanians and Balkans traditionally learned Italian. But it doesn't get the same highly educated immigrants as in Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands, etc.

Italy had to change their laws last year because so many Brazilians and Argentinians were obtaining citizenship.

Most of Germany's immigrants are from Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Syria, and....Poland. Switzerland is famously difficult to immigrate to for non-EU citizens.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Italy had to change their laws last year because so many Brazilians and Argentinians were obtaining citizenship.

Most of Germany's immigrants are from Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Syria, and....Poland. Switzerland is famously difficult to immigrate to for non-EU citizens.

Switzerland and Germany both have higher share of immigrants than Italy, and higher share of highly educated immigrants. Quite different profiles. Switzerland is tiny and most immigrants are from neighboring countries. Something like 70% of German immigrants are from Europe.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Societ...ion/Tables/foreigner-place-of-birth.html

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Switzerland and Germany both have higher share of immigrants than Italy, and higher share of highly educated immigrants. Quite different profiles. Switzerland is tiny and most immigrants are from neighboring countries. Something like 70% of German immigrants are from Europe.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Societ...ion/Tables/foreigner-place-of-birth.html

It's probably worth distinguishing Europe the continent from EU member countries, especially when speaking about economic development and education levels.

Per your source:
~35% of German immigrants are from The EU.
~31% of German immigrants are from other European countries (Ukraine, Turkey, Serbia, Kosovo, Russia)
~29% are from Africa/Asia (Syria, Afghanistan, India, Iraq)

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Italy had to change their laws last year because so many Brazilians and Argentinians were obtaining citizenship.

Most of Germany's immigrants are from Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Syria, and....Poland. Switzerland is famously difficult to immigrate to for non-EU citizens.

It was quite amusing as many of those people of Italian descent are often very xenophobic and are always obsessing about “Eurabia” concepts. This law cause an uproar in those citizenship circles and ironically came from a nativist government.

Even though I liked for laughing material, I think it’s counterproductive. The large majority of South Americans holding Italian citizenship have no plans to move there. In fact, I’d say the majority hasn’t even bothered to visit Italy.

Most people request citizenship for a “just in case” scenario and the large majority that can request don’t even bother: I myself entertained several times to request either the Spanish or the Portuguese, but I’m too lazy for that. At this point is completely useless anyway.