Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Franco401

Restarting the drydock is not viable. The drydock might just be sitting there but the assembly hall is now the wallboard plant. It's had plenty added onto it in the last couple decades and probably can't be converted back, even if Irving wanted to. It's also much smaller than the one in Halifax. As for the drydock itself, it's been sitting idle for 26 years. A retrofit could be so extensive as to make it as expensive as commissioning an entire new facility.

Irving would never go for it, and we have no party in existence at the federal or provincial level willing to make those kinds of big swings like nationalisation or just establishing a new entity to expand industry at that scale.

Not viable? Based on?

As for retrofitting the dry dock costing anywhere near the cost of building a new, 350 meter dry dock… I highly doubt that… the cost to replicate the dry dock alone elsewhere would likely cost into the billions.

Also, the assembly hall probably not being able to be converted back… doubtful. If it was converted from an assembly hall to a factory, it could be converted back to a shipbuilding assembly hall, if needed.

The RCN has a distinct shortage of dry dock capacity, and those shortages are only going to get worse in the coming decades. The Saint John Dry Dock remains one of the two largest dry docks in the country, and remains the largest dry dock in Eastern Canada, despite it no longer operating.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I agree with all of that. Higgs was a good manager until he went off the rails on social issues. He political skills in terms of managing a political caucus and the cabinet were also sadly lacking.

I don't know if Holt can reign in spending and still deal with the healthcare and education issues or not but I worry that the answer is "not".

I think the conundrum is that living within our means may result in not having the kind of social services, healthcare, education and infrastructure that people seem to want/expect.

We are very much the poor relation in the confederation and while we get a ton of welfare (AKA transfer payments) from the Feds we still can't seem to make ends meet.

Higgs wasn’t a great economic manager… he was a negligent economic manager. He had some huge surpluses because he didn’t adequately fund the healthcare system, build enough social housing, and other social services that he left critically underfunded.

What exactly are benefit of paying down the debt and austerity budgets?

NB gets a lot more equalization payments funded by Alberta, Saskatchewan, etc by keeping spending high and not being laser focussed on paying down government debt like Higgs was…

I don’t think it’s in the province’s best interest to embrace austerity and focus on paying down government debt… the priority should be growing the economy.

[Taeolas]

It feels like Higgs built up a lot of Infrastructure debt in his years while seeking to balance the budget. So schooling and healthcare especially were suffering from necessary upgrades and "make do" patching in the systems.

Holt needs to do some belt tightening, but she's also dealing with that debt, turning it into monetary debt. It's a tough balancing act, but hopefully by investing now in better schools, more teachers, more doctors and nurses, etc.... we'll be better off in the longer term.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It feels like Higgs built up a lot of Infrastructure debt in his years while seeking to balance the budget. So schooling and healthcare especially were suffering from necessary upgrades and "make do" patching in the systems.

Holt needs to do some belt tightening, but she's also dealing with that debt, turning it into monetary debt. It's a tough balancing act, but hopefully by investing now in better schools, more teachers, more doctors and nurses, etc.... we'll be better off in the longer term.

It wasn't just an infrastructure debt, but also a debt on the healthcare contracts. He wouldn't make a deal with the nurses until one month before the election, by which stage it was too late. That bill was coming due whether he remained in power or the liberals won. I am less familiar with the doctors, but it was probably similar.

Thankfully, both the doctors and the nurses are going to be stable for the next few years, but it hasn't come cheaply.

The NB Power component is very frustrating. They cut the PST on electricity because of how poorly NB Power has performed and to try and remediate the rate hikes, but in doing so, they have cost themselves $93M a year in taxes.

While I sympathize with people struggling with their power bill, it feels like we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. That $93M will have to come from somewhere else, either through reduced services or investment.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Higgs wasn’t a great economic manager… he was a negligent economic manager. He had some huge surpluses because he didn’t adequately fund the healthcare system, build enough social housing, and other social services that he left critically underfunded.

What exactly are benefit of paying down the debt and austerity budgets?

NB gets a lot more equalization payments funded by Alberta, Saskatchewan, etc by keeping spending high and not being laser focussed on paying down government debt like Higgs was…

I don’t think it’s in the province’s best interest to embrace austerity and focus on paying down government debt… the priority should be growing the economy.

I don't disagree that at least some of Higgs' surpluses came from deferring necessary spending but the present state of the deficit does raise the question.... Does NB have the financial capacity to fully fund public services such as healthcare, education, roads, social services etc. etc. at levels expected by the population ?

I'm beginning to wonder if maybe the province is just too poor.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by bingun

It wasn't just an infrastructure debt, but also a debt on the healthcare contracts. He wouldn't make a deal with the nurses until one month before the election, by which stage it was too late. That bill was coming due whether he remained in power or the liberals won. I am less familiar with the doctors, but it was probably similar.

Thankfully, both the doctors and the nurses are going to be stable for the next few years, but it hasn't come cheaply.

The NB Power component is very frustrating. They cut the PST on electricity because of how poorly NB Power has performed and to try and remediate the rate hikes, but in doing so, they have cost themselves $93M a year in taxes.

While I sympathize with people struggling with their power bill, it feels like we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. That $93M will have to come from somewhere else, either through reduced services or investment.

Who’s Peter and who’s Paul? Because raising power rates will only hurt the poor while the rich will be unfazed by rate hikes.

NB Power is a laughingstock and needs to be overhauled from the top down. It’s one of the most bloated, inefficient crown corporations and it’s honestly a miracle we don’t have the highest power rates in Canada paying all those salaries and pensions to one of the most inefficient workforces in Canada.

Obviously, there’s lots of very hard working, integral people working at NB Power, but that’s clearly not most of the executives and higher ups that have been running the company into the ground for decades.

This whole controversy over the natural gas power station in Tantramar is just getting stupid at this point… yeah, we might need it, and it’s almost definitely going to get built, but why aren’t we also importing as many cheap Chinese solar panels and wind turbines as possible to massively increase NB’s grid infrastructure so that this natural gas plant isn’t being used more than it has to be.

I can’t believe NB power spent $700 million in upgrades for Coleson Cove for Venezuelan crude oil that we never even ended up buying… in a province where $700 million is an absolutely huge amount.

The PM’s making speeches in Beijing about China helping Canada increase its grid infrastructure and decarbonize… NB Power is getting American companies to build natural gas power plants so we don’t have brown outs.

If NB power is investing billions in this natural gas plant, they should be investing even more in solar and wind. Now that Carney has reset the relationship with China… that could be possible very soon.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I don't disagree that at least some of Higgs' surpluses came from deferring necessary spending but the present state of the deficit does raise the question.... Does NB have the financial capacity to fully fund public services such as healthcare, education, roads, social services etc. etc. at levels expected by the population ?

I'm beginning to wonder if maybe the province is just too poor.

Maybe not？but even if NB doesn’t have the capacity, is the federal government going to let the province fail? Equalization payments are some of the only way we see resource wealth from Alberta be distributed to other areas of Canada not so lucky as Alberta, and I think Quebec does a much better job gaming the system than NB does.

If NB ever wants to not be so poor, it will take massive investments, huge budgets, and Keynesian economic principles… the kind of stuff Mark Carney studied at Oxford. We’re not going to simply pay down the debt and expect economic miracles like Higgs seemed to be wishing for (and sort of did see come true with the post 2020 discovery of New Brunswick by the rest of Canada)

No, NB has to massively investment in its infrastructure, in its economy, in its people, or it will always be a poor, have not province compared to the rest of Canada.

As the saying goes… you have to spend money to make money!

I say we worry about further developing the economy and steadily grow the population first, before we start worrying about debt as some esoteric threat like Higgs did. Debt is a multigenerational constant in any advanced economy, yet in NB, it’s often talked about as a major short term political issue, which to me is just such a flawed and myopic way of looking at economics and politics.

Government debt levels should be one of the last things that New Brunswickers should be concerned about at the moment in these times of global economic upheaval. Imo, economic development and demographic growth are far mor pressing issues that the government should be focused on.

Making NB a better place to live, developing the economy, and growing the population are three things that go hand in hand in hand.

[sailor734]

The elephant in the room as NB continues to cash it's welfare cheques from Ottawa is the estimated 77.9 trillion cf of untapped natural gas reserves we are just sitting on. Reserves that could provide the provincial government something like 2-2.5 billion dollars per year in royalties if developed. No wonder some of the "have" provinces are getting fed up with the system.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The elephant in the room as NB continues to cash it's welfare cheques from Ottawa is the estimated 77.9 trillion cf of untapped natural gas reserves we are just sitting on. Reserves that could provide the provincial government something like 2-2.5 billion dollars per year in royalties if developed. No wonder some of the "have" provinces are getting fed up with the system.

The Mi'kmaq and the SJWs will not let us develop that resource unfortunately.

[sailor734]

Far past time to end indigenous peoples having a de facto veto over development.

[Mud]

Could we imagine if the PCs had won and cut 1% the PST? I'm mostly a fan of Higgs' financial management but I did NOT think it was prudent for the PCs to be cutting revenue streams while they themselves admitted that the boom years they presided over were temporary.

The debt did need addressing and I'm thankful they had the discipline and guts to restrain some spending but I do feel like raising the personal exemption every other year and the elimination of front license plates are things you do after you've made a much larger dent.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Far past time to end indigenous peoples having a de facto veto over development.

The last time we attempted development of this resource, there was serious indigenous civil disobedience and rioting in eastern and northern native reserves.

Curiously, these reserves are located over a hundred km from the gas fields in Albert and Kings Counties.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Mud

Could we imagine if the PCs had won and cut 1% the PST? I'm mostly a fan of Higgs' financial management but I did NOT think it was prudent for the PCs to be cutting revenue streams while they themselves admitted that the boom years they presided over were temporary.

The debt did need addressing and I'm thankful they had the discipline and guts to restrain some spending but I do feel like raising the personal exemption every other year and the elimination of front license plates are things you do after you've made a much larger dent.

I'm surprised more premiers haven't already done what Eby just did in BC and increase the lowest income bracket. Holts popularity is high enough that she could absorb any negativity that comes from it I think

Carney basically gave the premiers the opening by doing his tax cut last year where the two would balance out but youd get more money to the provinces. Our neighbours in NS are having the same issues and have a more conservative premier.

And I always thought Higgs promise to cut the PST was ridiculous. No one was asking for that.

[Mud]

Originally Posted by lirette

I'm surprised more premiers haven't already done what Eby just did in BC and increase the lowest income bracket. Holts popularity is high enough that she could absorb any negativity that comes from it I think

Carney basically gave the premiers the opening by doing his tax cut last year where the two would balance out but youd get more money to the provinces. Our neighbours in NS are having the same issues and have a more conservative premier.

And I always thought Higgs promise to cut the PST was ridiculous. No one was asking for that.

No one truly asks for any of these salami slice tax cuts, they only serve to make good headlines. They are a momentary "relief" that just end up costing taxpayers magnitudes more in the long run, as we are going to see very soon.

This deficit would be probably much more in line with their first projection if they simply returned taxes and other revenue streams to their pre-Higgs levels.

[bingun]

I am no political strategist, but announcing $45M for Irving the day after you announce the deficit is out of control probably isn't the best idea.

Irving Paper to get up to $45 million in Holt tariff relief funds

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/irving-paper-to-get-45-million-in-holt-tariff-relief-funds

But the vast majority goes to a single company in Irving Paper.

Opportunities NB states that the $45 million over three years is to support “the global competitiveness of New Brunswick’s only remaining paper mill during a period of significant cost pressure and market volatility.

“This investment is intended to help sustain operations, protecting more than 183 jobs and $20.6 million in annual payroll,” it adds.

It’s a number that was roughly 310 a year ago before layoffs.

[Mud]

Originally Posted by bingun

I am no political strategist, but announcing $45M for Irving the day after you announce the deficit is out of control probably isn't the best idea.

Irving Paper to get up to $45 million in Holt tariff relief funds

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/irving-paper-to-get-45-million-in-holt-tariff-relief-funds

Not the best optics but if they qualify they qualify I suppose.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The elephant in the room as NB continues to cash it's welfare cheques from Ottawa is the estimated 77.9 trillion cf of untapped natural gas reserves we are just sitting on. Reserves that could provide the provincial government something like 2-2.5 billion dollars per year in royalties if developed. No wonder some of the "have" provinces are getting fed up with the system.

Now would be the time too… certainly PM Carney and Premier Holt could work with NB’s First Nations on this opportunity and come to a deal that’s amenable to both sides.

It would be ridiculous to build a LNG pipeline from elsewhere in Canada to the Port of Saint John, if we could simply develop our own natural gas resources and build a much shorter pipeline to Port Saint John.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

As mentioned in this thread the first nations will not allow fracking in the province. It was a whole mess last time and I dont think their opinions on fracking have changed. I dont believe there's much or anything the province or feds could do to change their minds

[sailor734]

Since when did we give indigenous people the power of veto over any and all development projects? This needs to be stopped for once and for all. Governments have a duty to consult and hear their opinions, nothing more.

If various groups or individuals decide to blockade roads or railways because they don't get their way then it becomes a law enforcement matter......and various police forces need to actually enforce the law and make mass arrests......not wring their hands and worry about "escalating" the situation like they did over the rail blockades. Rule of law is fundamental to a functioning society and allowing people to ignore laws or defy court orders without serious consequences is a dangerous precedent.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Since when did we give indigenous people the power of veto over any and all development projects? This needs to be stopped for once and for all. Governments have a duty to consult and hear their opinions, nothing more.

If various groups or individuals decide to blockade roads or railways because they don't get their way then it becomes a law enforcement matter......and various police forces need to actually enforce the law and make mass arrests......not wring their hands and worry about "escalating" the situation like they did over the rail blockades. Rule of law is fundamental to a functioning society and allowing people to ignore laws or defy court orders without serious consequences is a dangerous precedent.

Agreed. Another issue that can be mitigated is foreign interference. This was a constant during the last anti-fracking protests in NB. Certain NG companies from down south were very active in this area and are fully aware of how the Canadian governments will bow to First Nations opinions in most situations.