Worldwide Demographics

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Indeed, because Guyana has been an independent country since 1966.

At least in the U.S., Guyana, or Guyanese, does not refer to any country or territory, it refers to the region and people. All three (or four, if you want to be pedantic).

And it sure as hell doesn't refer to Europe, LOL. It's a West African/South Asian/Native mix, and is almost always grouped with the West Indies. It's basically like Belize, which from a map looks Latin American but is West Indian. Belize but more curries and samosas and Indian influences.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I would have imagined more. Social benefits in France include child benefits, and housing benefits (which are very numerous, people with lower income like students get like 200 or 300 euros per month to help pay their rent). Most French people receive social benefits in one form or another. That's the Socialist nanny state from cradle to grave.

My point was you cannot compare Martinique, Guadeloupe with São Paulo (or any other country whatsoever) simply based on GDP. Their GDP tell us the same Ireland's tells. It's a simply matter of accounting.

If Paris will be gone tomorrow, the economy of those islands simply disappear overnight. Those ridicule figures regarding exports are actually heavily subsidized farming products completely shielded from foreign competition. France leaves, it also disappears. There is no real economy there.

In 2024, over 36% of taxes are paid by São Paulo state (R$ 1.3 trillion or US$ 260 billion). For every US$ 100 São Paulo sends to Brasília, it takes only US$ 10 back. So if Brasília disappeared tomorrow, São Paulo would have an extra US$ 230 billion year. That's like 3/4 of Portugal's GDP or bigger than Hungary's.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The term was coined in the United States to refer to an ethnic group within the United States. This is a weird thing to try to argue about. I was just pointing out that it was being improperly used by you.

I'm not arguing it. I just explained the context I used. It seemed odd to me to call "African" people who are living in the American continent for three centuries and I went with "Afro-American". In any case, in the US you use "African-American".

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Let's go back to demographics. As Wikipedia gladly provides separated figures to help us to understand those very peculiar former colonies.

GUADELOUPE

Population
1982: 317,269
2011: 404,635 (peak)
2026: 382,586

2007
Births ---- 6,862
Deaths --- 2,769
Change - +3,319

2024
Births ---- 3,608
Deaths --- 3,839
Change --- –231



MARTINIQUE

Population
1982: 326,717
2006: 397,732 (peak)
2026: 358,818

2007
Births ---- 5,317
Deaths --- 2,830
Change - +3,319

2024
Births ---- 2,898
Deaths --- 3,793
Change --- –895

Both are facing a very fast demographic collapse very similar to the ones of Puerto Rico and more recently, Cuba.

---------------------------------------

Let's see some economic data for context:

Guadeloupe
Exports ----- € 324.1 million
Imports -- € 3,954.8 million

Martinique
Exports ----- € 397.1 million
Imports -- € 3,399.2 million

--- Unemployment rate: 16.6% and 13.9% respectively.

--- 60% of Guadeloupe's population receive at least one direct social benefit. I couldn't find the numbers for Martinique, but I guess it's only slightly lower than Martinique.

--- 35% and 32% of the population works on the public sector respectively. Pretty much 90% of the population is either working for the government or receiving financial help from the government.

Out of curiosity I decided to check the other three:

Guiana
Exports ----- € 154 million
Imports -- € 2,050 million

Unemployment: 15%-19%
60% living on social benefits
30%-33% working on public sector


Réunion
Exports ----- € 405 million
Imports -- € 7,100 million

Unemployment: 16%-19%
76% living on social benefits
25%-30% working on public sector


Mayotte
Exports ------ € 12 million (!!!)
Imports -- € 1,075 million

Unemployment: 29%
13% working on public sector


The same economic black hole. Surprised by Réunion. I don't know why but I'd expect better numbers for it. Mayotte is simply tragic. A complete basketcase.

[JManc]

Guys, you're getting a little too carried away with the back-and-forth minutiae and it's starting to derail the thread. We've gone from population growth and decline to arguing about African Americans and overseas departments. I know you guys are trying to have an interesting conversation and I get it but we are knee deep in 'Comic Book Guy' territory with the pedantry.

If the solution is to break some of the more recent discussion out into a new thread, I'd be ok with that and I'd be happy to do that....I just think we've gone off track from the initial topic of this thread.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by JManc

If the solution is to break some of the more recent discussion out into a new thread, I'd be ok with that and I'd be happy to do that...

That's a good idea. How should it be called? "Overseas territories of the European Union"? Or just "Overseas territories" to also include Hawaii and Alaska in the discussion?

Originally Posted by Yuri

Let's see some economic data for context:

Guadeloupe
Exports ----- € 324.1 million
Imports -- € 3,954.8 million

Martinique
Exports ----- € 397.1 million
Imports -- € 3,399.2 million

Originally Posted by Yuri

Out of curiosity I decided to check the other three:

Guiana
Exports ----- € 154 million
Imports -- € 2,050 million

Réunion
Exports ----- € 405 million
Imports -- € 7,100 million

Mayotte
Exports ------ € 12 million (!!!)
Imports -- € 1,075 million

If Paris will be gone tomorrow, the economy of those islands simply disappear overnight. Those ridicule figures regarding exports are actually heavily subsidized farming products completely shielded from foreign competition. France leaves, it also disappears. There is no real economy there.

I gather economics was not your major.

Let's take two nearby independent countries for comparison, the Dominican Republic and Mauritius.

Dominican Republic
Exports ------ 11,932 million USD
Imports -- 31,341 million USD

Mauritius
Exports ------ 1,854 million USD
Imports -- 6,282 million USD

So, is there no economy in the Dominican Republic and Mauritius? Have they collapsed after Spain and Britain left them? Are they at the level of Haiti now?

No, they are actually two rather prosperous countries in their regional environment. So obviously there's a "glitch" in your reasoning.

And the glitch is... your figures refer only to exports and imports of GOODS, which is just one part of foreign trade. But there is also exports and imports of services, that you forgot, and the Dominican Republic, Mauritius, as well as Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana and Réunion are all great exporters of services (I let you guess which services).

Mauritius for instance exports 4,086 million USD of services. The Dominican Republic exports 12,840 million USD of services. In comparison, Martinique exported 1,177 million USD of services in 2024. Guadeloupe exported 1,551 million USD of services.

The positive balance of trade in services partly offsets the negative balance of services in goods. That's how it works for most of these island territories, independent or not independent.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Or just "Overseas territories" to also include Hawaii and Alaska in the discussion?

Hawaii for sure, but Alaska isn't really "overseas" from the lower 48.

It's on the same exact continental landmass, but BC prevents it from being contiguous with the rest of the nation.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Hawaii for sure, but Alaska isn't really "overseas" from the lower 48.

It's on the same exact continental landmass, but BC prevents it from being contiguous with the rest of the nation.

Technically it can be considered an "exclave".

There was no road to Alaska until the 1940s, meaning it functioned like an island.

There is also no railroad connecting Alaska with the Lower 48. There is a narrow gauge railroad leftover from the Klondike gold rush that connects Alaska with the Yukon:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Pass_and_Yukon_Route

[Yuri]

East Coast vs West Coast

East Coast
1850 --- 13,305,941
1860 --- 15,958,971 -- 19.94%
1870 --- 18,152,340 -- 13.74%
1880 --- 22,104,604 -- 21.77%
1890 --- 26,264,891 -- 18.82%
1900 --- 31,490,175 -- 19.89%
1910 --- 38,063,468 -- 20.87%
1920 --- 43,652,325 -- 14.68%
1930 --- 50,220,680 -- 15.05%
1940 --- 53,799,928 --- 7.13%
1950 --- 60,660,321 -- 12.75%
1960 --- 70,649,551 -- 16.47%
1970 --- 79,712,040 -- 12.83%
1980 --- 86,094,406 --- 8.01%
1990 --- 94,376,082 --- 9.62%
2000 -- 105,363,538 -- 11.64%
2010 -- 115,094,637 --- 9.24%
2020 -- 123,698,882 --- 7.48%
2025 -- 128,240,760 --- 3.67%

West Coast
1850 ------ 105,891
1860 ------ 444,053 - 319.35%
1870 ------ 675,125 -- 52.04%
1880 ---- 1,148,004 -- 70.04%
1890 ---- 1,920,386 -- 67.28%
1900 ---- 2,634,285 -- 37.17%
1910 ---- 4,448,534 -- 68.87%
1920 ---- 5,877,788 -- 32.13%
1930 ---- 8,622,011 -- 46.69%
1940 --- 10,228,556 -- 18.63%
1950 --- 15,114,964 -- 47.77%
1960 --- 21,198,044 -- 40.25%
1970 --- 26,524,131 -- 25.13%
1980 --- 31,799,756 -- 19.89%
1990 --- 39,127,306 -- 23.04%
2000 --- 45,025,637 -- 15.07%
2010 --- 49,880,102 -- 10.78%
2020 --- 53,669,422 --- 7.60%
2025 --- 53,800,005 --- 0.24%

Not saying that's a surprise, but it's a massive change, as the West Coast has always grown much faster since its beginning.

Maybe the US population centre will move easternwards for the first time in its history on the next census.

*East Coast: New England, Middle Atlantic and South Atlantic regions; West Coast: Pacific Region

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

East Coast vs West Coast

East Coast
1850 --- 13,305,941
1860 --- 15,958,971 -- 19.94%
1870 --- 18,152,340 -- 13.74%
1880 --- 22,104,604 -- 21.77%
1890 --- 26,264,891 -- 18.82%
1900 --- 31,490,175 -- 19.89%
1910 --- 38,063,468 -- 20.87%
1920 --- 43,652,325 -- 14.68%
1930 --- 50,220,680 -- 15.05%
1940 --- 53,799,928 --- 7.13%
1950 --- 60,660,321 -- 12.75%
1960 --- 70,649,551 -- 16.47%
1970 --- 79,712,040 -- 12.83%
1980 --- 86,094,406 --- 8.01%
1990 --- 94,376,082 --- 9.62%
2000 -- 105,363,538 -- 11.64%
2010 -- 115,094,637 --- 9.24%
2020 -- 123,698,882 --- 7.48%
2025 -- 128,240,760 --- 3.67%

West Coast
1850 ------ 105,891
1860 ------ 444,053 - 319.35%
1870 ------ 675,125 -- 52.04%
1880 ---- 1,148,004 -- 70.04%
1890 ---- 1,920,386 -- 67.28%
1900 ---- 2,634,285 -- 37.17%
1910 ---- 4,448,534 -- 68.87%
1920 ---- 5,877,788 -- 32.13%
1930 ---- 8,622,011 -- 46.69%
1940 --- 10,228,556 -- 18.63%
1950 --- 15,114,964 -- 47.77%
1960 --- 21,198,044 -- 40.25%
1970 --- 26,524,131 -- 25.13%
1980 --- 31,799,756 -- 19.89%
1990 --- 39,127,306 -- 23.04%
2000 --- 45,025,637 -- 15.07%
2010 --- 49,880,102 -- 10.78%
2020 --- 53,669,422 --- 7.60%
2025 --- 53,800,005 --- 0.24%

Not saying that's a surprise, but it's a massive change, as the West Coast has always grown much faster since its beginning.

Maybe the US population centre will move easternwards for the first time in its history on the next census.

*East Coast: New England, Middle Atlantic and South Atlantic regions; West Coast: Pacific Region

Quite a shift overall but the South Atlantic and lower Mid-Atlantic are doing the legwork for the East Coast over the past few decades. While the Northeast is roughly similar in population to the West Coast, the Northeast only grew by 4.1% between 2010 and 2020 compared to the 7.6% growth on the West Coast for that period.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Quite a shift overall but the South Atlantic and lower Mid-Atlantic are doing the legwork for the East Coast over the past few decades. While the Northeast is roughly similar in population to the West Coast, the Northeast only grew by 4.1% between 2010 and 2020 compared to the 7.6% growth on the West Coast for that period.

Mid-Atlantic and even New England also had a very good decade. For instance, their three big metro areas, Philadelphia, New York and Boston all have grown faster than Los Angeles for the first time ever.

-------------------- 2020 ---------- 2010
NEW YORK ------ 22,692,839 --- 21,358,372 --- +6.2%
LOS ANGELES -- 18,644,680 --- 17,877,006 --- +4.3%
PHILADELPHIA --- 6,245,051 ---- 5,965,353 --- +4.7%
BOSTON ---------- 6,095,791 ---- 5,628,532 --- +8.3%

Let's see how the 2020's will play.

[New Brisavoine]

Last night on TV there was a long documentary on the Franco-German channel Arte about Italian prime-minister Meloni. Meloni is currently hailed as having made Italy "great again". There isn't a week without an article about how Italy is doing well, better than France and Germany, etc. Journalists love a good story and hype.

So I looked at demographic stats, and it's pretty stark.

This was the population on Jan. 1, 2023 (French and Italian Jan. 2023 censuses, German Jan. 2023 estimate following the German May 2022 census):
- Germany: 83,118,501
- France: 68,404,843
- Italy: 58,997,201

If we use France as base 100, that's:
- Germany: 121.5
- France: 100
- Italy: 86.2

Now, if we look only at the women who were under 42 y/o in 2023 (i.e. the women who are now under 45), that is to say the women who will beget the future population, then it becomes:
- Germany: 109.4
- France: 100
- Italy: 70.1

In other words, compared to France, it's as if Italy was only a country of 48.0 million inhabitants, and Germany a country of only 74.8 million inhabitants.

Things are going to be tough for Italy and Germany. Remove the old people, and Italy is essentially a country already only the size of Spain.

But the cries of "viva l'Italia" and "we won't play 2nd league anymore in the EU" in the documentary were touching. These young neo-fascists should procreate if they really wanted to "make Italy great again".

[Crawford]

Italy isn't really a power, anymore. They're playing in Spain's and Poland's sandbox, more or less. And unlike Germany, they can't attract large numbers of highly educated immigrants. But I guess they're happy with the populists. They have a long history of weird governments.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Italy isn't really a power, anymore. They're playing in Spain's and Poland's sandbox, more or less. And unlike Germany, they can't attract large numbers of highly educated immigrants. But I guess they're happy with the populists. They have a long history of weird governments.

You should have seen the documentary. In fact perhaps you can (it's available either in French or in German... oh wait, it's also available in English, here is the link): https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/RC-027528/giorgia-meloni-the-power-of-the-clans/

This time is different. Since Meloni has become primer minister, Italy has enjoyed more stability than it had in decades. But I believe it won't last (although at the moment, like growth curves going up which investors believe will always go up, Italians have a tendency to think that stability is here to stay, and they mock France for having an unstable government, which is a reversal of the usual situation in both countries).

They are really convinced that they are doing better than France and Germany (that's because Germany is experiencing a recession with the collapse of its export model, whereas Italy's exports are doing very good, and they passed Japan in 2024 to become the 4th largest exporter in the world, which has filled them with intense pride). The French media (France is like Britain, we like to either overhype our successes or exaggerate our failings), so the French media have in the past year loved to stress how Italy is passing France. Supposedly, Italy's GDP per capita has passed France's (cue: looks of horror and bewilderment in France). This information is not true. Absolutely no one (IMF, World Bank, OECD, Eurostat) puts Italy's GDP per capita ahead of France (they would have to pass the UK and Canada before passing France), but Italy passing France in GDP per capita has become accepted fact in the French media and among many French elites (I'm yet to find where that fake information came from originally). And of course many in Italy also believe that.

Lately, with the French government weakened due to the lack of a majority in the French National Assembly, and with Germany not agreeing with France on many issues, the Germans have tried to to get closer to Italy, which has both made the Italians super proud ("we're treated like tier 1 country now") and left the French anguished and moaning (along the lines of "look how bad Macron's policies have been, now the Germans prefer the Italians, we don't count anymore, etc"). This is all very stupid, after the 2027 French presidential election it will be back to the good old Franco-German engine powering Europe, simple laws of gravity, but you know how people can be sensitive to appearances and moods.

So the current mood in both Italy and France is that Italy is on the ascent and replacing France as tier 1 and German partner. Which is why I think the demographic figures help keep a sense of perspective.

Germany moves closer to Italy as disagreements strain ties with France

January 25, 2026

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/...s-strain-ties-with-france_6749782_4.html

France set to clash with Germany and Italy as EU leaders seek economic boost

February 11, 2026

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/...-italy-as-eu-leaders-seek-economic-boost

Below, the recent German-Italian summit (Jan. 23, 2026) in which France wasn't invited and which has both made the Italians super proud and the French looking at this in horror like a sign of national decline. The only similar thing I could think of is a US-Europe summit of US, France, and Germany in which Britain wouldn't be invited. Imagine the soul searching that would generate in the UK... Meloni is beaming as you can see.

[New Brisavoine]

Segregation in the suburbs of Paris. Ethnic statistics do not exist in France, but this map showing the results of the 2024 European election is a good approximation. In red: far-left ahead of all other lists. In pink: center-left ahead. In yellow: Macron's party ahead. In blue: center-right ahead. In gray: far-right ahead. The — spot in Versailles is the location of a military camp, where soldiers voted overwhelmingly for the far-right.

[montréaliste]

@New Brisavoine/

Interesting to see that Paris proper is overwhelmingly macroniste. I didn’t think three years ago that he would survive the gilets jaunes controversy, the many who were left badly hurt by police action on the crowds, many blinded in one eye, etc… But as much as I dislike the guy, the alternative of the Left seemed worse than the RN, or the respective union of the right or the left.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

Interesting to see that Paris proper is overwhelmingly macroniste.

Only the western part of Paris proper is pro-Macron. The eastern part is pro-Left.

This is a map for the entire urban area of Paris. The far-right dominates in the peripheral areas, just as Trump also dominates in peripheral areas of US metro areas.

[Crawford]

So rich French households tend to be center-right? Neuilly-sur-Seine and Versailles are the richest suburbs, right? To me, it's odd they would vote different than some of the richest parts of western Paris, but I'm sure I'm missing some nuance.

[New Brisavoine]

Blue is more old money, old Catholic/aristocratic families. Yellow is more young entrepreneurs/startupers. But I've been amazed (and shocked) at how some western areas have been quick to abandon the traditional center-right and vote for Macron's centrists, considering how Macron is really a left-winger. In the US, he would be not very different from Clinton or Obama really. In the UK, not very different from Tony Blair.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Italy isn't really a power, anymore. They're playing in Spain's and Poland's sandbox, more or less. And unlike Germany, they can't attract large numbers of highly educated immigrants. But I guess they're happy with the populists. They have a long history of weird governments.

I'd place Italy way ahead Spain, let alone Poland, whose GDP is only 1/3 of Italy's and unlike Italy gets no immigrants.

Italy can easily and do attract people from the Balkans, Northern Africa, South America, all those quickly assimilating into Italian society, but they don't want anymore.

[New Brisavoine]

Poland is attracting LOTS of immigrants. In the space of 10 years, the immigrant population of Poland has gone from just 100,000 to 2.5 million (other sources say 2.8 million).

In terms of population size and economy, I think Italy is going to ressemble more and more Spain, and less and less France. It's only a matter of time before Spain passes Italy in terms of total population. And their GDP is getting closer to Italy's every year.