Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
I don't understand the focus on whether the population growth is via immigration or babies. Growth is growth.
Germany is extremely crowded and dense and has been growing. The population is heavily concentrated in a north-south western corridor. And I don't think Germany would be a better place with, say, 100 million people. It's the size of a U.S. state.
Of course you need some fertility. No one wants a Children of Men-type situation. But Western Europe has pretty normal fertility for secular first world nations. Really only South Korea is demographically fragile.
|
German cities are not that dense and I guess they would be a more pleasant places being a bit denser. 100 million could perfectly fit in already built up areas. In fact, if Germany had grown at same pace of the neighbouring Netherlands (a much denser place) since WWII, Germany would have 150 million inh.
Regarding to keep stable population, it would be harder and harder as years go by: Germany is now on a need of 350k a year and this number will keep growing. Europe as a whole reached in 2024 a negative natural growth of 2.2 million. Even if we exclude the former Soviet European parts, we still have -1.3 million. It's lots of people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
Poor or religious countries have higher birth rates. When they immigrate to rich countries, the birth rates are same as new country after the first generation.
Rich countries like Germany can maintain population indefinitely, as long as they remain desirable places to work and live. Germany is very likely to remain desirable.
|
Urbanization rates are probably even more important: cities have always forced low fertility rates, even in Sumeria. And now the majority of world's population live in urban areas.
Regarding growing forever, that will be increasingly more difficult in a declining world. Tokyo-Osaka axis fed on the rural Japan and still grows despite Japan had lost 5 million inh. However, they're now about to decline as well as those regions cannot provide enough people to counter their increasingly negative growth.
And as I mentioned before, not adapting to a shrinking world might be a liability. In that sense, mass-immigration might mask the transition making harder for societies to make the much needed adaptation.
Threaded Mode