The US Census Bureau thread

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

If the powers that be in FL were smart enough to allow for a HSR elevated line along Alligator Alley to Naples and another elevated HSR line along FL-25 and FL-80 to Ft Myers, it could happen.

Montauk to NY Penn Station (116 miles): https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Montauk,..._ep=EgoyMDI1MDYyMy4yIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

Greenport, NY to NY Penn Station (97.8 miles): https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Greenpor..._ep=EgoyMDI1MDYyMy4yIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

Naples, FL to MiamiCentral (127 miles): https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Naples,+..._ep=EgoyMDI1MDYyMy4yIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

Ft Myers, FL to MiamiCentral (159 miles): https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Fort+Mye..._ep=EgoyMDI1MDYyMy4yIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

I agree that the distance between Miami and Ft Myers and Naples are vast, but a HSR train that travels over 125 MPH could cut that travel time to just a little over an hour.

I'm not sure why you think travel between Miami and Ft Myers is such a priority. I have not read anything about the need to link those two areas. If anything, even Brightline has linked Miami to central Florida and I would bet growth and migration continues up the northern cost past Ft Pierce to Palm Bay and also inland central to Orlando.

[Steely Dan]

A Miami/Fort Myers mega CSA mash-up?


You gotta love a good old fashioned SSP fantasy reach.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

A Miami/Fort Myers mega CSA mash-up?


You gotta love a good old fashioned SSP fantasy reach.

dfw has the metroplex, south florida has "the tip"

[iheartthed]

Interesting news about U.S. population estimates released by the US Census Bureau today, regarding period between July 2024 and July 2025:

• Population growth cut in half compared to previous year, and immigration is at historic lows
• Florida's population growth has substantially slowed as it grapples with fewer immigrants and fewer domestic migrants
• South Carolina now the fastest growing state
• Midwest is growing again, driven by gains in Michigan and Ohio from domestic migration
• California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, Vermont, and West Virginia are all estimated to have lost population

Press release: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html

[mhays]

The detailed tables are here:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-total.html

Washington grew by 73,062, ranking #6, or #7 by percentage.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Interesting news about U.S. population estimates released by the US Census Bureau today, regarding period between July 2024 and July 2025:

• Population growth cut in half compared to previous year, and immigration is at historic lows
• Florida's population growth has substantially slowed as it grapples with fewer immigrants and fewer domestic migrants
• South Carolina now the fastest growing state
• Midwest is growing again, driven by gains in Michigan and Ohio from domestic migration
• California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, Vermont, and West Virginia are all estimated to have lost population

Press release: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html

Humm

I was very curious about this release. They estimated a positive net migration of 1.3 million. I find it a bit iffy.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

The detailed tables are here:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-total.html

Washington grew by 73,062, ranking #6, or #7 by percentage.

The Midwest has grown faster (relatively) than the West between 2024 and 2025. On absolute terms it was 245k and 264k respectively. That's probably the first time that happened ever.

I wouldn't be surprised if the population center move east for the first time in 2030.

[Steely Dan]

Political immigration discussion moved the the immigration thread in CE.

Continue there.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Political immigration discussion moved the the immigration thread in CE.

Continue there.

Is it okay to discuss 2030 reappointment based on the 2025 census estimates? The CE forum is too much of a toilet, but I find it fascinating to see how many congressional seats each state will have although it’s hard to divorce that from the polarizing political discussion.

[Crawford]

Everyone focuses on the most recent estimates, but the revised estimates from the previous year are just as important.

If you look at both numbers, Florida actually "lost" population, which has to be unprecedented. The previous year was revised dramatically downward.

Also, I suspect the Census continues to do an incredibly poor job of estimating non-traditional populations. Again NYS had the largest positive revision. This keeps happening.

[SteveD]

6 of the top 10 numerical gain leaders SE/Mid Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia.

North Carolina is finally growing faster than Georgia, the census bureau has been projecting that for many years, and it's finally happening, although at the moment Georgia remains 8 and North Carolina 9.

A few decades down the road, the top 6 population states will likely be California, Texas, Florida, New York, North Carolina, Georgia.

There's an outside chance of Texas actually catching California in the coming decades, if California remains stagnant or even declines, and if Texas continues its bonkers growth.

[Yuri]

Another interesting case Illinois. It was chronically negative and it's doing relatively well between 2020-2025.

[Crawford]

If you look at both revised year and new year, the headlines are completely different.

The main takeaway from the is release is the Midwest, and particularly OH and MI. But they revised OH and MI massively downward in the previous year, meaning both actually "lost" population from last year. The headlines completely miss the context.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by SteveD

There's an outside chance of Texas actually catching California in the coming decades, if California remains stagnant or even declines, and if Texas continues its bonkers growth.

Barring some catastrophe such as a severe earthquake, nuclear strike, or breakup of the country, I'm extremely skeptical that Texas catches California before 2100, if ever. The past 1 - 2 decades aside, California and Texas have grown in parallel for most of the postwar period. We talk as if CA and TX are opposites but the conditions that have driven population growth to Texas since WW2 are largely the same ones that have driven growth to California. If the growth spigot shuts off for California then Texas is likely going to encounter the same trend in short order.

[SteveD]

I knew that was the part of my post that would get the most scrutiny. And I agree, although I don't think it's that far-fetched. California is at the moment stagnant, and even posted a decline, and Texas is, well, as I said, bonkers.

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by SteveD

I knew that was the part of my post that would get the most scrutiny. And I agree, although I don't think it's that far-fetched. California is at the moment stagnant, and even posted a decline, and Texas is, well, as I said, bonkers.

Texas, even at its high population, being #4 in percentage growth is crazy.

Arizona seems to be at a healthy growth rate. This article analyzes the Arizona numbers:

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news...ource=sy&utm_medum=ptr&utm_campaign=knxv

28k net international, 7k natural, and 31k domestic. AZ's ~50% drop in international migration mirrors the ~50% drop in international migration nationwide. I would not be surprised if that number is halved again for 2025-2026. The domestic migration is maybe a tick below AZ's average over the last ~40 years, which I think should be expected moving forward.

[kittyhawk28]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Barring some catastrophe such as a severe earthquake, nuclear strike, or breakup of the country, I'm extremely skeptical that Texas catches California before 2100, if ever. The past 1 - 2 decades aside, California and Texas have grown in parallel for most of the postwar period. We talk as if CA and TX are opposites but the conditions that have driven population growth to Texas since WW2 are largely the same ones that have driven growth to California. If the growth spigot shuts off for California then Texas is likely going to encounter the same trend in short order.

There are limitations to just extrapolating current growth trends 50 years into the future. Thats how you get wacky, insane predictions like DFW having 80 million people by 2100. Circumstances change which can shift those growth trends up and down. For example, you never know if some surprise factor, like policy changes, spurs California to start growing again.

If I had to wager though, California will continue its slow growth, but Texas will eventually also reach its period of slow growth in the near future. Marchetti's constant is undefeated, and that will significantly limit the continued rapid growth of the big two Texan Cities DFW and Houston. Once sprawl extends 30 minutes out from the median center of a region's labor market, growth in sprawl begins to die out. You saw this with Southern California in the 1990s- 2000s, Phoenix increasingly so this decade, you will eventually see it manifest in Texas.

[Crawford]

IMO, within 5-10 years, there will be a dramatic slowdown in TX growth. TX has a ginormous population of young Hispanic adults in childbearing years, and the second highest fertility rates in the U.S., just behind Mormon Utah.

Once that cohort exits childbearing years, there will be a slowdown.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

There are limitations to just extrapolating current growth trends 50 years into the future. Thats how you get wacky, insane predictions like DFW having 80 million people by 2100. Circumstances change which can shift those growth trends up and down. For example, you never know if some surprise factor, like policy changes, spurs California to start growing again.

If I had to wager though, California will continue its slow growth, but Texas will eventually also reach its period of slow growth in the near future. Marchetti's constant is undefeated, and that will significantly limit the continued rapid growth of the big two Texan Cities DFW and Houston. Once sprawl extends 30 minutes out from the median center of a region's labor market, growth in sprawl begins to die out. You saw this with Southern California in the 1990s- 2000s, Phoenix increasingly so this decade, you will eventually see it manifest in Texas.

Just to be clear, my overall point is that whatever happens to California is likely to be followed by Texas. If California booms then Texas is probably going to boom. If California busts then Texas is probably going to bust. Sure, they could go in radically opposite directions but we have almost no historical examples of that in the 250 year history of this country. Cities/regions/states that have grown in parallel have almost always stagnated in parallel and declined in parallel.

[Six Corners]

A lot of the growth in Texas is driven by immigration. From 2024 to 2025 there were 167,000 international migrants and 67,000 domestic migrants. That's a 48% decline in international migration from 2023-2024 when there were about 319,000 international migrants. If only looking at population change due to domestic growth, Texas ranks 18th, between Missouri and Indiana.

With those figures and the current political climate, I'm curious if Texas's growth will decrease significantly over the next couple Census estimates. Of course the populations of California, Florida, New York, and Illinois are heavily driven by international migration as well. State population rankings and growth among the most populous states could get pretty wacky.