Statistics Canada Reports II

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I did hear that if Okotoks keeps growing, they will change the name of the Calgary CMA to Okotoks CMA. There will certainly be a number of things to do.

And more.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Done.
Unlike Montreal, this was easier and only had to be cut into 2 screenshots that I was able to line up almost perfectly
It should be noted that even though I'm using Stat Can CSD census subdivision data for each municipality that for some reason the total is off from Stat Can CMA numbers

As the forum sticklers have pointed out the 2021 Census may be undercounting population by up to 5%. But for most of us the quinquennial Census is like the official base line. Can't please everyone

These charts are awesome. Is it possible you can do one for Toronto and Edmonton?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Surrey has been predicted to overtake Vancouver for a long time, and it's always just a few more years away. I do think zoning and construction has a lot to do with it, and of course price. People will always pick Vancouver first.

Surrey is also running out of greenfield development sites, so we'll see what happens. I'll predict Langley will continue to grow quickly, Surrey will slow, Vancouver will keep it steady. Vancouver needs Senakw/Oakridge/Heather Lands/Jericho level developments and 4-6 units per lot density to keep going for the foreseeable future to keep growing at these levels.

In the last four years (as the population numbers are for 2021-2025) Vancouver slightly out-built Surrey. It has for decades. (19,879 completions, compared to Surrey's 19,712, 2022-2025). There are over 100,000 units already identified for development in the future in Vancouver under the various plans – so easily 20 years potential supply (and easily the same again already in policy that haven’t been submitted by developers yet).

One difference is that these are not net gains - Vancouver saw 3,904 demolitions of dwellings, and Surrey would have been less, as they have more greenfield sites.

Contrary to my expectations, what got built in Surrey in the past 4 years is very similar to what’s been built in Vancouver. If you combine single falmily, duplex and rown houses as ‘ground oriented’, Surrey had 5,294 completions, and the City of Vancouver 5,368. Surrey built more rowhomes, and Vancouver built more duplexes and single family; (many will be laneway rentals). The vast majority of homes were apartments in both municipalities; 14,418 in Surrey and 14,511 in Vancouver.

So it would seem that it’s not what’s being built in new housing that explains the difference between the growth of Surrey’s population, over Vancouver. It would seem to be mostly demographics; Surrey has bigger households (3.0 vs 2.1), more likely to have children in the family (and likely to have more children 1.8 on average vs 1.6 in Vancouver). The proportion of women of childbearing age is quite a bit higher in Vancouver but those residents seem far less likely to have children than those in the same age groups in Surrey.

[phone]

I went ahead and made tables for the Saskatoon CMA, shown 2 ways. To put it in perspective, Saskatoon's population in the current figures is roughly the same population the CMA was at in 2021. Sources are 2025 estimates and 2021 Census.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by phone

I went ahead and made tables for the Saskatoon CMA, shown 2 ways. To put it in perspective, Saskatoon's population in the current figures is roughly the same population the CMA was at in 2021. Sources are 2025 estimates and 2021 Census.

nice job, phone

Much more detailed than mine. I took the lazy route and only calculated the larger "census subdivisions"

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

These charts are awesome. Is it possible you can do one for Toronto and Edmonton?

Edmonton has been done and posted a few pages back
Post #4038, also posted recently to the Edmonton Construction thread

And sure, I'll work on Toronto for you.

[Mr Tall Forehead]

I admittedly don’t know much about municipal boundaries or growth trends in the Saskatoon CMA but the one take away from the chart for me is that it’s good to see that the city is gaining population at a higher rate than the surrounding communities.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by phone

I went ahead and made tables for the Saskatoon CMA, shown 2 ways. To put it in perspective, Saskatoon's population in the current figures is roughly the same population the CMA was at in 2021. Sources are 2025 estimates and 2021 Census.

...

^ How did Saskatoon manage to build enough housing for over 50,000 people in five years?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by wigs

edmonton has been done and posted a few pages back
post #4038, also posted recently to the edmonton construction thread

and sure, i'll work on toronto for you.

ty

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Architype

^ How did Saskatoon manage to build enough housing for over 50,000 people in five years?

Igloos.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The discussion of property taxes brings me to a major complaint with the Ford PCs that nobody seems to think about.. Ford has consistently cancelled and deferred the updating of provincial tax assessments. MPAC is still operating on 2016 assessment values - which means many properties are unfairly paying much higher taxes than they should. And the province is mum on when they are actually going to do something about it, while the media never reports on it because it's such a dry topic.. meanwhile many households are randomly subsidizing others by up to thousands of dollars a year as MPAC is not able to properly assess taxes due..

And every year it gets more and more obvious with wider and wider gaps as the market changes more and more from what it was in 2016. This generally benefits aging properties as well.... i..e. retirees.

I wondered why it hadn't updated!

The MPAC values stated always seemed quote low, but the logic that everything was equally low so it didn't affect how your share of taxes was split up made sense to me.

But my new house had a major renovation before we bought it, and I did answer truthfully about that on the update form MPAC sent me, and then... No change in my taxes. So I'm probably in for a nasty increase when they finally do update things. Hoping I can get my farming tax credit before / at the same time as that happens.

[Innsertnamehere]

yes. MPAC is supposed to reassess for value adds still from my understanding (i.e. renovations) - the issue is mostly on the "balance" of taxes in the value of neighborhoods.

Hamilton for example has seen assessment values skyrocket on a proportionate basis in the lower city since 2016. This means that those people in the lower city are paying artificially low taxes and being subsidized by residents in the suburbs who haven't seen values increase as proportionately.

I'm not quite as sure on depreciation too - i.e. a house renovated in 2005 would still see a substantial value in that in 2016, but now in 2026 that is considered "dated".. not sure if MPAC still treats that as a 10-year old renovation for evaluation purposes or if it accurately records it as a 20-year old renovation (I.e. "renovated in 1995"). I suspect those people are overpaying still.

Its easy to see how crazy off balance it is when you look at sale prices of homes. Houses selling for, say, $800,000 in Hamilton can have taxes varying from $4,000 in the lower city to almost $6,000 - for the same value house! Reassessment is supposed to make this fair by averaging it out to around $5,000... but because the PC government is avoiding the bad press from "increased property taxes" for those undervalued homes paying only $4000, they would rather not rock the boat and keep having those overassessed properties overpay. It's not fair.

And I say this as someone who strongly believes their home is over assessed.. it's a PITA. I'm overpaying probably by about $1,000 a year in property taxes right now.

[Wigs]

phone, you need to post your tables in the Saskatoon construction thread. I'm sure they'd appreciate the greater detailed breakdown! Not everyone ventures to the main Canada section.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by zoomer

because..? I don't get it, feels like I'm missing an inside joke.

It's just kidding around that if Surrey became bigger than Vancouver they would change the general name of the metro from Vancouver to Surrey.

[Surrealplaces]

Thanks for digging up the numbers for Calgary. Not a lot of towns or cities as most of the population is within Calgary's municipality. Chestermere has been an interesting one. It's exploded and may explode even more in the next few years.
DeHavilland is building a large manufacturing facility just east of Chestermere, that is expected to have 1,500 potentially up to 3,000 new jobs.

Originally Posted by Wigs

Calgary CMA

[kora]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Thanks for digging up the numbers for Calgary. Not a lot of towns or cities as most of the population is within Calgary's municipality. Chestermere has been an interesting one. It's exploded and may explode even more in the next few years.
DeHavilland is building a large manufacturing facility just east of Chestermere, that is expected to have 1,500 potentially up to 3,000 new jobs.

Cochrane and Okotoks are lifestyle suburbs. Airdrie and Chestermere are affordability suburbs. Want a new detached home but can't afford Calgary? We have a plan for you.

[Dalreg]

Originally Posted by Architype

^ How did Saskatoon manage to build enough housing for over 50,000 people in five years?

One house at a time.

[kora]

In 2024, Canada became part of the group of countries with "ultra-low fertility," with a total fertility rate of 1.25 children per woman.

The average age of mothers at the birth of their first child ... reached an all-time high of 31.8 years (in 2024).

The proportion of women aged 50 years and older with no children has also been increasing ... from 14.1% in 1990 to 17.4% in 2022.

In 2024, 51.5% of Canadian women aged 20 to 49 years were not yet mothers.

Fertility and intentions, Stats Canada, Jan 26 2026
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260126/dq260126a-eng.htm?HPA=1

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

These charts are awesome. Is it possible you can do one for Toronto

Done.



Brampton took the lead from Mississauga as the largest suburb in Canada. Both are estimated to have actually declined between 2024-2025.
Hard to believe Oakville is now quarter of a million. That's gotta be the wealthiest place per capita in Canada over 100k, unless I'm mistaken.
Ajax and Pickering are huge now too. And will MolsonExport's favourite, Milton ever stop growing?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Done.



Brampton took the lead from Mississauga as the largest suburb in Canada. Both are estimated to have actually declined between 2024-2025.
Hard to believe Oakville is now quarter of a million. That's gotta be the wealthiest place per capita in Canada over 100k, unless I'm mistaken.
Ajax and Pickering are huge now too. And will MolsonExport's favourite, Milton ever stop growing?

The Miltonization of the universe. Milton is for lovers.



Does Whitby cling to the Oshawa CMA? I didn't see it listed in your figures.

Toronto proper, already dense, gaining nearly 500K in four years? Impressive...most impressive.