The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[someone123]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I’ve always been curious why Yarmouth isn’t a bigger population centre when it has one of the most mild winter climates in Canada outside of BC. ������

It's primarily because of geography. That area has poor soils and once you go past Annapolis Royal or Bridgewater there isn't much population. There aren't major rivers and it's geographically isolated.

It's a lot easier to get from Yarmouth to Halifax than to Saint John. It's a slightly shorter drive but you don't need to take a ferry. It's funny to look at the 3 hour drive today; when I was a kid I thought that was an eternity to spend in the car.

Yarmouth and Halifax are almost tied for winter temperatures and Yarmouth gets a fair amount of snow because of where it is in relation to the water. I think the other side around Shelburne probably has a slightly better climate.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think the other side around Shelburne probably has a slightly better climate.

I believe you are correct.

[someone123]

I think the points about how great it is to have decentralized cities and how NS would be better off with other larger cities is mixing up cause and effect a bit and doesn't make a lot of sense.

Western NS as stated is very sparsely populated. Then the rest of the mainland is quite small and it's all relatively close to Halifax anyway. Cape Breton is the only more remote area and it does have its own city, Sydney.

A lot of the factors leading to growth or decline are economic such as Sydney having a coal and steel based economy. If anything, NS put a huge amount of effort into trying to prop up Cape Breton.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I believe you are correct.

There's also a balance between milder winters and warm summers. Towns a little bit inland like Bridgewater have a good mix of summer warmth and winters that are not too bad. Exposed coastal areas have the warmest winter temperatures and can have highs of +2 or so at the warmest in NS, but often struggle to get above 20 in the summer.

[Taeolas]

As for Public Transit in towns, I think the 5k milestone might be too small for communities to be thinking of public transit options. 10k or maybe split the difference at 7.5k feels closer. Setting up a single bus route along the town's main corridor and/or shopping nodes that runs hourly 6 days a week would probably be all that would be needed, and the Provinces should be encouraging the communities to do that as they approach/reach those milestones.

(Woodstock NB is a town I'm familiar with. It's around the 7k point now, and it's feeling like it's the size a single bus route would be useful. Smaller than that is a judgement call; but if it's a service that gets common it could trickle down to the 5k communities).

And yes, Inter-city transit in the Maritimes is absolutely pitiful, especially when we consider the service we had with Acadian/SMT back in the day, when our population was almost half the size we have now. We desperately need regular (every 2-3 hours, not just once a day) service between the Big 6 cities (Halifax, Sydney, Charlottetown and NB's big 3), and at least twice daily to the NB Northern cities and Yarmouth and a loop around PEI. That would basically give almost every community in the Maritimes at least 2 buses going through in each direction every day.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Building construction totals for Fredericton and Moncton are out for 2025 but seemingly not for Saint John. Cannot find them, anyway.

Moncton $477.9 million
Fredericton $359.4 million

[bingun]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Building construction totals for Fredericton and Moncton are out for 2025 but seemingly not for Saint John. Cannot find them, anyway.

Moncton $477.9 million
Fredericton $359.4 million

Saint John - $389.9M

[KnoxfordGuy]

Where did you get your data?

[bingun]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Where did you get your data?

Just posted it in the SJ thread. This is an agenda item for a committee meeting next week. They probably won't post it on socials before then, but who knows.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Housing starts in NB in 2025 were the highest ever. Including post war and the housing boom of the 70s, according to the Premier. Here is a slide from the State of The Province address.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Housing starts in NB in 2025 were the highest ever. Including post war and the housing boom of the 70s, according to the Premier. Here is a slide from the State of The Province address.

Good to see progress.

Nonetheless, New Brunswick could still do a lot better… starting with funding more big projects in all three “big cities”, and even the smaller cities and bedroom communities.

If the government believes the housing crisis is real, why not support massive efforts to increase supply and actually deliver results people can believe? Not only would the people of NB benefit, our companies would benefit too.

The GNB should be aiming for much higher than 6000 housing starts per year, and should fund publicly owned rental housing projects to get the yearly housing starts to 10,000 and beyond.

The goal should be to maintain high levels of demographic growth despite the general downturn in immigration to Canada. NB can sustain a population far larger population than exists today, and our economy will benefit greatly from continuing these historically high levels of population growth fueled by both international and interprovincial migration.

Has the government of NB funded or financed a single housing development worthy of the name of this forum? ( 99 King definitely doesn’t count! )

[Smevo]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Rank Order Atlantic Canadian CMA/CA Populations, 2026 Estimate, and Percentage Change since 2021

...

- The growth rate in CBRM was really surprising, but, this is heavily influenced by international immigration (especially non permanent residents), and is really dependent upon CBU which has one of the largest proportional international student bodies in the country. Recent changes to immigration policy will have a negative effect on the CBRM population. The population of CBRM actually fell last year.

A couple quick notes:
- Last year's change for CBRM was stagnant at worst (-189 or -0.17%). As these estimates are for July, it's unclear how much effect the changes to the immigration policy (and the very public talk before it became reality) had on the estimate.
- Student enrollment is down by "over 3000" according to a recent news report done on CBU's Tartan Down's housing development. While this will likely have a large effect on the 2026 census and estimate, it's unclear if any of that was absorbed prior to the 2025 estimate.
- For fun, continuing the population increases of the previous 4 years suggests that CBRM could have been between 114,000 and 118,000 in last year's estimate, which would put it in the ballpark of the 1996 census, eliminating 25 years of decline.
- As it stands, the 2025 StatCan estimate puts CBRM above the 2001 census population, eliminating over 20 years of population decline in just the past 4-5 years (with an additional ~2500 people or additional 2.3% growth). Even if the student reduction produces an equivalent decline for the coming year, that still puts us in the ballpark of the 2001 census, and over 10% growth from the 2021 census.

All that said, it will be interesting to see the 2026 numbers. The housing market has slowed a bit, but the reality is the growth needed to slow a bit for everything to catch up. There's still a lot of development happening and (realistically) planned, and there isn't the "sky is falling" attitude that was there from my childhood days to ~2016 when people started to get more optimistic about the area's future again.

[KnoxfordGuy]

So, the Atlantic Provinces have stalled population growth again (as does all of Canada, save Alberta). Are we going back to our ole routine of loss? Or, have we reached a threshold where when the country opens up immigration again, we will grow once more? Interprovincial numbers have slowed too

Even during population loss times in NB, Fredericton and Moncton still had healthy growth numbers. Saint John did not however.

Thoughts?

[bingun]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

So, the Atlantic Provinces have stalled population growth again (as does all of Canada, save Alberta). Are we going back to our ole routine of loss? Or, have we reached a threshold where when the country opens up immigration again, we will grow once more? Interprovincial numbers have slowed too

Even during population loss times in NB, Fredericton and Moncton still had healthy growth numbers. Saint John did not however.

Thoughts?

I think the next 12-18 months will show tough numbers, either anemic growth or negative. The huge wave of temporary residents has to work its way through the system and either become permanent residents or leave, and that will take some time.

Because it has a smaller education sector, Saint John is actually less affected by this than other regions, but that won't make it immune. There is still a steady number of individuals heading to other provinces or cities.

In the long term, it will come down to economics. Can NB create meaningful growth and opportunities, if so, the population growth will continue.

This is why the mining projects, the port expansion, and military opportunities are so important.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by bingun

This is why the mining projects, the port expansion, and military opportunities are so important.

I know Saint John has plans for port expansion but did anybody else see the post on Retail Talk about South Korea looking into manufacturing submarine torpedoes(?) possibly on Belledune port?

[DyAm00394]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

I know Saint John has plans for port expansion but did anybody else see the post on Retail Talk about South Korea looking into manufacturing submarine torpedoes(?) possibly on Belledune port?

That news came from Telegraph Journal: https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-eyed-as-location-for-torpedo-manufacturing-plant

"The South Korean company attempting to win a lucrative contract to build Canada’s next generation of submarines says New Brunswick is on a shortlist of provinces where it could build a domestic torpedo manufacturing plant.

That’s while there may also be a hydrogen infrastructure opportunity in any agreement.

It’s part of Hanwha’s pitch to win a multibillion-dollar contract to build 12 new submarines in a competition the Carney government says will favour the bid that creates the most Canadian jobs.

That’s as the minister responsible for Opportunities NB says the Holt government is “in active conversations with multiple defence companies.”

Final proposals for the contract were submitted to the federal government earlier this month.

Part of the South Korean pitch is the promise of a domestic torpedo manufacturing plant.

LIG NEX1, which makes torpedoes for the KSS-III, the diesel-electric South Korean submarine proposed to replace the Victoria-class fleet, has offered to manufacture the weapons in Canada, if Hanwha is selected.

Hanwha has since name dropped Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, or Manitoba as potential locations.

Meanwhile, the South Koreans are also proposing to create a hydrogen-fuel infrastructure hub in Canada as part of its bid.

The South Korean government and the conglomerate of Hyundai companies have been pitching to help Canada establish hydrogen fuel-cell facilities.

“As part of the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project process, our team has explored a range of opportunities that align with Canada’s broader innovation and energy priorities, including emerging hydrogen technologies,” Copeland said.

“While we can’t talk specifically about locations, we do recognize New Brunswick’s desire for green energy and understand that hydrogen development and transport has been an aspiration in certain parts of the province.”

That’s a clear nod to the Port of Belledune’s efforts to pursue a green hydrogen production facility.

A port plan developed calls for power generation using biomass, wind, and solar, with hydrogen and the eventual use of small modular nuclear reactor technology as well.

The South Koreans are promising to deliver four submarines by 2035, the year the navy plans to begin retiring its current fleet.

Copeland has said that his company’s bid can comfortably deliver an average of 25,000 jobs a year in the country over the coming decades.

An additional 15,000 short-term jobs could be created through the construction phase of submarine maintenance facilities, which are to be built in Halifax and Esquimalt, B.C".

[bingun]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

That news came from Telegraph Journal: https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-eyed-as-location-for-torpedo-manufacturing-plant

Does the below not imply that it doesn't necessarily need to be directly next to a port? I don't think the subs will be cruising into Churchill, Manitoba, to stock up on torpedoes.

I don't have a good enough grasp of the manufacturing process to understand what kind of location or workforce is required. My concern with Belledune would be the workforce.

Part of the South Korean pitch is the promise of a domestic torpedo manufacturing plant.

LIG NEX1, which makes torpedoes for the KSS-III, the diesel-electric South Korean submarine proposed to replace the Victoria-class fleet, has offered to manufacture the weapons in Canada, if Hanwha is selected.

Hanwha has since name dropped Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, or Manitoba as potential locations.

[bingun]

Canada's population estimates, fourth quarter 2025

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260318/dq260318b-eng.htm

Preliminary demographic estimates indicate that Canada's population was 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026.

According to these preliminary estimates, the population of Canada decreased by 103,504 people (-0.2%) from October 1, 2025, to January 1, 2026.

NL - 548,557 (-1,181)
NS - 1,090,074 (-1,783)
NB - 867,383 (-1,247)
PEI - 182,001 (-507)

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by bingun

Canada's population estimates, fourth quarter 2025

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260318/dq260318b-eng.htm



NL - 548,557 (-1,181)
NS - 1,090,074 (-1,783)
NB - 867,383 (-1,247)
PEI - 182,001 (-507)

In percentage terms, it would appear the bleeding is less in NB than the other three Atlantic provinces.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Nova Scotia was the only Atlantic province that had a positive flow of interprovincial growth with 800 more coming in than going out. Still couldn't stem the tide.

I hate this era of immigration policy for Atlantic Canada.