Statistics Canada Reports II

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I checked Statscan and the country grew by 390k between Q3/24 & Q3/25 which is when these CMA stats would cover. The country grew by 390k, roughly 1%. BC has the lowest rate while Alberta was the clear winner. Even if Toronto and Montreal grew at only half the national rate, that would still give them pop increases of 37k and 23k respectively which is magnitude higher than your 10k and 5k estimates.

Anyway, it's fun for us nerds to do the demographic guessing game but we will all find out on Monday.

I'm going to re-do my predictions before it's too late.

Toronto +70,000
Montreal +40,000
Vancouver +50,000
Calgary +50,000
Ottawa +25,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +15,000
Quebec +10,000
KW +10,000
Hamilton +10,000
Halifax +15,000
Victoria +5,000
Saskatoon +8,000
Regina +5,000

[ssiguy]

Looks about right but I would say Halifax would be more like 10,000 and Vancouver 40k not 50. I would add London at about 10k.

[harls]

It's out.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

[missing_middle]

Calgary's growth is pretty impressive. Could get to 2M relatively soon just on strong inter-provincial growth...

[GreaterMontréal]

Montreal and its 4 neighboring regions (GMA extended area) : 5,34M

The island of Montreal : 2,172M , +6k

[MolsonExport]

Toronto CMA registers a decline.
Pretty big slowdowns in Vancouver and Montreal.

[Innsertnamehere]

Calgary continues to really pull ahead of Edmonton. There was a difference of only 62,000 people between the two cities in 2019. Now it's 144,000.

Not surprised Toronto saw a (small) drop. KWC also noticably slowed down - another hub of temporary immigration. It went from growing by 35,000 in 2023-2024 to just 2,000 in 2024-2025. Hamilton posted a significantly faster growth rate than KWC (9,000!).

Prince George officially passed 100,000, marking it's place in line to be Canada's next CMA.

Charlottetown is also getting quite close to 100,000. I suspect it will pass it in 2027 at current rates. Granby likely won't be far behind.

Cape Breton has already returned to population losses - a shame. Interesting because the rest of the Maritimes haven't seemed to follow.

Northern Ontario is also still posting growth in some cities after years of decline - though it seems to be highly Variable. For whatever reason Sudbury seems more resilient to growth than the rest of the North. I suspect it will cross 200,000 soon.

Some other oddities I've noticed:
- Sarnia flatlining
- Chatham continuing strong growth, countering it's usual decline tied with Sarnia
- Norfolk County is surprisingly high growth given the rural character (no town over 20,000) and poor employment prospects, not being close to a major centre
- Interesting to see Collingwood flatline while Wasaga Beach continues to skyrocket
- Despite excellent growth in Calgary, it's outlying suburbs are surprisingly slow growing (Okotoks and High River)
- Wood Buffalo keeps growing after years of decline, proving it's more than just the temporary immigration bump

[rdaner]

For Toronto+KW+Niagara=10,846,041 lucky peeps!

[MolsonExport]

I don't think we are ready to start speaking about KWC being absorbed into the greater golden horseshoe just yet. There are many kilometres of undeveloped greenbelt land between Milton/Halton Hills and KWC. Guelph is rather north of the 401

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Cape Breton has already returned to population losses - a shame. Interesting because the rest of the Maritimes haven't seemed to follow.

Interesting that Moncton is still basically in boomtown territory (nearly 3 percent growth) and the other cities are posting pretty healthy growth rates. Halifax at 1.6 percent is still considerably higher than the 1 percent CMA average. Cape Breton's growth in the past few years was pretty much entirely due to international students at Cape Breton University. Now that that pipeline has dramatically slowed, we're seeing a return to business as usual. I really don't see it as a growth area going forward.

All the prairie metros are STILL booming. It's interesting to drill into the data on the components of change to see where that's going. Interprovincial migration into Alberta is still strong but has slowed considerably, and is negative in Saskatchewan. The main driver of those cities' continued booms (in these numbers) seems to be due to the fact that as of lastQ2, their net change in temporary residents had not gone steeply into negative territory, as it had in most of the country. That changed in Q3, which is not reflected in these numbers, so I think 2025/26 numbers are going to be quite different. Exactly how different, hard to predict!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Interesting that Moncton is still basically in boomtown territory (nearly 3 percent growth) and the other cities are posting pretty healthy growth rates. Halifax at 1.6 percent is still considerably higher than the 1 percent CMA average. Cape Breton's growth in the past few years was pretty much entirely due to international students at Cape Breton University. Now that that pipeline has dramatically slowed, we're seeing a return to business as usual. I really don't see it as a growth area going forward.

Moncton now at 196,143.

I think more modest growth will continue in the hub city and we might still crack the 200,000 barrier by July 2025.

[Coldrsx]

2021-2025

Edmonton + 219k
Calgary +296k

Both very impressive.

[MolsonExport]

Toronto's stats are dewooting.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Toronto's stats are dewooting.

True, but Toronto CMA is still up by well over 600,000 from 2021. They added a London CMA equivalent in population before the recent decline that I'll call a "blip" in the grand scheme of things.

I'm glad to see St. Catharines-Niagara CMA grew by 10,000 in a year, putting the CMA over 500k with 503,670 estimated population.
The larger Niagara Region itself has got to be around 560,000-565,000 by now.

[Chocolite]

I wasn’t expecting Toronto to see a drop, but I’m not shocked. Calgary being the highest growth isn’t a shock either. Credit to Edmonton for being able to hang with Calgary. Also credit to Ottawa having 39K growth, I was expecting less. Other standouts for me are Moncton and Saskatoon.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

- Despite excellent growth in Calgary, it's outlying suburbs are surprisingly slow growing (Okotoks and High River)

That part of Alberta - Foothills MD and Okotoks along with High River is kind of a weird area. It's notorious for trying to slow down growth, with Foothills MD's stance purposely anti-development, and the towns of Okotoks and High River themselves trying to implement growth caps.
Okotoks lifted their growth cap, but they are still very conservative on growth.

[kora]

Originally Posted by Chocolite

I wasn’t expecting Toronto to see a drop, but I’m not shocked. Calgary being the highest growth isn’t a shock either. Credit to Edmonton for being able to hang with Calgary

Edmonton benefits for being a more attractive destination for rural and small town Alberta and further afield in the north and the Western provinces. It's seen as more approachable and welcoming. Cost of living certainly helps. Many people from smaller places in the West feel that Calgary is like a little Toronto, which is off-putting for many.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

All the prairie metros are STILL booming. It's interesting to drill into the data on the components of change to see where that's going. Interprovincial migration into Alberta is still strong but has slowed considerably, and is negative in Saskatchewan. The main driver of those cities' continued booms (in these numbers) seems to be due to the fact that as of lastQ2, their net change in temporary residents had not gone steeply into negative territory, as it had in most of the country. That changed in Q3, which is not reflected in these numbers, so I think 2025/26 numbers are going to be quite different. Exactly how different, hard to predict!

I think the numbers for Calgary and Edmonton will slow somewhat, but will still be strong. housing starts for both cities have been strong though 2024 and 2025 and are still going strong. Housing starts don't always align with population growth in a short period like one year, but over a longer term they usual do.

[giallo]

Metro Vancouver grew by 316,606 people from 2021-2025. You can definitely feel the population bump here, as there's no new land to expand onto. They've just been added to the existing urban landscape and infrastructure.

Kelowna saw a 22,455 increase.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Housing starts don't always align with population growth in a short period like one year, but over a longer term they usual do.

It is pretty standard to think of population growth as driving housing starts but it to some degree it must be the other way around in Canada too. The markets that can maintain high housing starts will tend to stay affordable and attract more growth. That's true in the Prairie cities and in Moncton.

I'm surprised how much overall growth there was in different CMAs/CAs and how the impact of nonpermanent migrants leaving is so disparate. The Toronto CMA alone accounts for a significant portion of the slow-down in the national population growth rate.