Real Estate discussions

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Looking at your graph it is clear prices took off around 2001-2003. Hmm, now what happened in the Vancouver market around that time? I certainly don’t recall any massive wage increases for working locals. What could it have been..Anyone, anyone???

The bank rate dropped from over 7% to under 4%, and mortgage rates dropped to match (and stayed low, even through the 2008/2009 financial crisis). Since 1980, when rates had been nearly 20%, money has been increasingly cheap to borrow.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The bank rate dropped from over 7% to under 4%, and mortgage rates dropped to match (and stayed low, even through the 2008/2009 financial crisis). Since 1980, when rates had been nearly 20%, money has been increasingly cheap to borrow.

You mean the same low interest rates that were in effect everywhere n the western world? Yet only a few world cities had such large run-ups: Vancouver, Sydney, Melbourne....

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You mean the same low interest rates that were in effect everywhere n the western world? Yet only a few world cities had such large run-ups: Vancouver, Sydney, Melbourne....

Vancouver was similar to the whole of Canada (although slightly higher) - it wasn't just Vancouver and Toronto that saw prices take off / become less afordable after 2000.



[Global / CREA]

And here's the price change that relates to that increasing lack of affordability


[FRED]

And it wasn't just Canada - much of the western world saw a similar increase.

The US was different because of the significant drop in prices due to their loans crisis in the late 2000s.



[North Shore News]

But prices took off in the UK;


[https://www.cladco.co.uk/blog/post/h...-house-prices]

and in France;



[FRED]

New Zealand



[FRED]

[kikin]

Originally Posted by Changing City

...

seems in the scope of first world cities across the world that are desirable destinations to live in that Vancouver is still underpriced

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by kikin

seems in the scope of first world cities across the world that are desirable destinations to live in that Vancouver is still underpriced

What a shame our leaders think that it’s more important to cater to foreign money than working Canadians.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What a shame our leaders think that it’s more important to cater to foreign money than working Canadians.

Effective as of January 1, 2023, the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (the “Act”) prevents non-Canadians from buying residential property in Canada for 2 years.

On February 4, 2024, the Government of Canada announced its intention to extend the existing ban on foreign ownership of Canadian housing for an additional two years, to January 1, 2027.

[CMHC]

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Effective as of January 1, 2023, the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (the “Act”) prevents non-Canadians from buying residential property in Canada for 2 years.

On February 4, 2024, the Government of Canada announced its intention to extend the existing ban on foreign ownership of Canadian housing for an additional two years, to January 1, 2027.

[CMHC]

Let me introduce you to Canada’s current Prime Minister Mark Carney and his bumbling stooge of a Housing Minister the hapless Gregor Robertson:

Canada is considering changes to its ban on foreign home buyers starting in 2027, its housing minister said, as the government looks for ways to increase the supply of affordable places to live.

Gregor Robertson said the government will maintain a previous administration’s decision to extend the prohibition on foreign buyers through 2026. But over the next year it will review what’s worked in similar countries, particularly Australia.

“We need to figure out the best role for offshore capital to play in the housing market,” the former Vancouver mayor said in an interview with Bloomberg News.….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06

Surely you haven’t forgotten our clueless former mayor, lover of Chinese pop stars and all around incompetent boob? We all remember how well selling to Chinese money made Vancouver so affordable during Robertson’s reign of error.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let me introduce you to Canada’s current Prime Minister Mark Carney and his bumbling stooge of a Housing Minister the hapless Gregor Robertson:

Canada is considering changes to its ban on foreign home buyers starting in 2027, its housing minister said, as the government looks for ways to increase the supply of affordable places to live.

Gregor Robertson said the government will maintain a previous administration’s decision to extend the prohibition on foreign buyers through 2026. But over the next year it will review what’s worked in similar countries, particularly Australia.

“We need to figure out the best role for offshore capital to play in the housing market,” the former Vancouver mayor said in an interview with Bloomberg News.….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06

Surely you haven’t forgotten our clueless former mayor, lover of Chinese pop stars and all around incompetent boob? We all remember how well selling to Chinese money made Vancouver so affordable during Robertson’s reign of error.

You're obsessed. Foreign buyers aren't currently allowed in the market. The development industry is lobbying to change that, but the current government has said no, not this year. I get that you don't like the former mayor (and the fact he dated someone ethnically Chinese for a couple of years, a decade ago), but then you don't like almost all politicians, or most developments (unless they're 100% government owned - and sometimes you don't like those either) or developers, or anyone immigrating to Canada. You've repeated these depressingly consistent negative opinions for 17 years, and the vast majority of your 27,000+ posts.

Foreign buyers affected the margins of the market. There were never a lot, and there are almost none buying now. Investors impacted the market - but most of them were Canadians; locals; investing in property in preference to other forms of saving.

I was the owner of two properties (briefly) because I bought a home before selling the one I was then living in. It was worryingly easy to get a mortgage on one, and a line of credit on the other, to completely cover the cost of the purchase. If I thought owning property was a better vehicle for saving, and didn't mind having debt on that property, I could have kept both and leased one out.

As the charts show, house prices here show similar patterns of change to many western countries (that didn't have a dodgy banking system allowing mortgages to people who couldn't afford them). Interest rates (globally) and the rules about loans have affected house prices far more than a few foreigners (some of them wealthy), buying homes.

Here's another chart (from CREA) showing international migration to BC. The majority initially move to Greater Vancouver. See how there's no increase around 2000 to explain a rise in house prices?




But you keep blaming 'foreigners'.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let me introduce you to Canada’s current Prime Minister Mark Carney and his bumbling stooge of a Housing Minister the hapless Gregor Robertson:

Canada is considering changes to its ban on foreign home buyers starting in 2027, its housing minister said, as the government looks for ways to increase the supply of affordable places to live.

Gregor Robertson said the government will maintain a previous administration’s decision to extend the prohibition on foreign buyers through 2026. But over the next year it will review what’s worked in similar countries, particularly Australia.

“We need to figure out the best role for offshore capital to play in the housing market,” the former Vancouver mayor said in an interview with Bloomberg News.….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06

Surely you haven’t forgotten our clueless former mayor, lover of Chinese pop stars and all around incompetent boob? We all remember how well selling to Chinese money made Vancouver so affordable during Robertson’s reign of error.

you really should read the article before posting it. The key word it 'capital'. You need capital to build. This capital creates the rental stock.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by djmk

you really should read the article before posting it. The key word it 'capital'. You need capital to build. This capital creates the rental stock.

And what you forget (along with Prime Minister and his Housing stooge) is that foreign investors are perfectly able to invest in real estate buy buying shares in the numerus REITs that provide it. Or they can invest in a developer. The notion that they absolutely must be able to buy individual units to "invest" in Canadian housing is ridiculous.

Maybe the PM should look at why Canada's big banks require a developer to reach a very high level of presales to provide funding. It's time these coddled, sheltered institutions take some risk to make a profit, everyone else has to.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

....Foreign buyers affected the margins of the market. There were never a lot, and there are almost none buying now. Investors impacted the market - but most of them were Canadians; locals; investing in property in preference to other forms of saving...

That is one of the most laughable things you've ever posted. Yes, I'm sure municipal, provincial and federal governments brought in rules to contain foreign buyers because they were just having a teeny tiny effect on the margins of the housing market.

As to Robertson, you've apparently selectively forgotten that he had the gall to call Andy Yan's excellent research showing the impact of foreign buyers as "xenophobic". yes, Andy Yan.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

That is one of the most laughable things you've ever posted. Yes, I'm sure municipal, provincial and federal governments brought in rules to contain foreign buyers because they were just having a teeny tiny effect on the margins of the housing market.

Municipal governments introduced rules to ensure vacant homes were available for renting. They don't discriminate - the owner can be in Beijing or Banff.

The federal ban on foreign ownership has been described by the CBA as 'politically expedient and symbolically resonant'. They note 'research does not consistently support the notion that foreign buyers alone drive up property values. Housing affordability is shaped by multiple variables; interest rates, supply constraints, population growth, zoning regulations, and attributing market dysfunction to one segment of buyers oversimplifies a complex issue. For instance, a report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) indicates that foreign ownership of Canadian homes is estimated to have declined to around 1%, challenging the notion that foreign buyers significantly impact housing affordability'.

Originally Posted by whatnext

As to Robertson, you've apparently selectively forgotten that he had the gall to call Andy Yan's excellent research showing the impact of foreign buyers as "xenophobic". yes, Andy Yan.

The mayor never called Andy Yan xenophobic - is that projection? He was concerned that the discussion of Andy's study had 'racist tones'. He specifically said "more needed to be done to address housing affordability than pitting people against each other.

"This can't be about race, it can't be about dividing people," said Robertson. "It needs to get to the core issue about addressing affordability and making sure it's fair."

Looks like the racist tones still prevail over a decade later.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And what you forget (along with Prime Minister and his Housing stooge) is that foreign investors are perfectly able to invest in real estate buy buying shares in the numerus REITs that provide it. Or they can invest in a developer. The notion that they absolutely must be able to buy individual units to "invest" in Canadian housing is ridiculous.

Maybe the PM should look at why Canada's big banks require a developer to reach a very high level of presales to provide funding. It's time these coddled, sheltered institutions take some risk to make a profit, everyone else has to.

It might happen but I can't think of a single REIT that builds its own investments.

as for the these coddled and sheltered banks that are too scared to take risks, perhaps you are too young to remember the 2008 financial crisis... lol

[WarrenC12]

Great post by a local expert on the impact of more housing of any kind, including the highest end luxury you can imagine.

Image of the day: new housing puts the most downward pressure on older rentals

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Great post by a local expert on the impact of more housing of any kind, including the highest end luxury you can imagine.

Image of the day: new housing puts the most downward pressure on older rentals

Since when is Russia Wving a “housing expert”? He was a software developer who ran under Kennedy Stewart’s disastrous banner last election.

[Migrant_Coconut]

That said, the "build only luxury housing and suck it up for a decade" strategy from several elections ago was a horrible idea... especially if that decade comes and goes and housing is still unaffordable. Best to densify for all incomes.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Since when is Russia Wving a “housing expert”? He was a software developer who ran under Kennedy Stewart’s disastrous banner last election.

Nice deflection. So if Russil is described as a 'housing commentator ' quoting data from a book on housing, rather than an 'expert', care to express an opinion on the data.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Nice deflection. So if Russil is described as a 'housing commentator ' quoting data from a book on housing, rather than an 'expert', care to express an opinion on the data.

What in his bio leads you to believe he’s a housing expert? Are you a “housing expert”?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

That said, the "build only luxury housing and suck it up for a decade" strategy from several elections ago was a horrible idea... especially if that decade comes and goes and housing is still unaffordable. Best to densify for all incomes.

All new housing is luxury housing. All older affordable housing was once new housing. There is no such thing as building new affordable homes unless it's government subsidised. The only issues are that we're not allowing enough to be built and taxing what is allowed too much.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

What in his bio leads you to believe he’s a housing expert? Are you a “housing expert”?

I'm sorry you're struggling to understand what I wrote. I'll try to say it even more clearly.

I suggested Russil could more accurately be described as a housing commentator, rather than a housing expert. So I'm agreeing with you that it's arguable whether he's an expert, but he did publish a comment, about some data that's in a book.

The book is suggesting that there's a relationship between rents charged for older apartments, and the amount of new apartments that get built. In US cities where more new apartments are built, the rents increased less. In fact he commented that "When cities expand their housing supply fast enough to outpace demand, rents fall most for older apartments".

So, irrespective of whether he's an expert, or just drawing attention to the work of other authors, do you find the information of interest? Compelling? Or are you so obsessed about the status of the messenger that you don't have anything to say about the message?