Portland Transit | TriMet/Mass Transit News

[dizflip]

Originally Posted by aquaticko

The confusing thing for me viz a vis MAX ridership is that the peak of ridership was, at this point, years ago: 2016 (per a graph from TriMet posted on the Wikipedia page), at just over 40 million. Prior to measure 110, prior to COVID, prior to work-from-home, etc., the system was annually down over a million riders from its peak. What happened to cause that change?

I grant that frequency's not great, but the idea of built a rail transit system is to spur development around stations, which has mostly not happened. Don't bother mentioning things like Orenco; it's almost like in terms of its influence on Portland urban structure, it may as well not exist. It's just kind of a joke to say "MAX was just a favor for developers", because if it was, it clearly didn't work. The way this is all supposed to work--or at least does in places with good transit ridership--is that land values increase around transit nodes; cities reap tax windfalls; taxes go to running/maintaining/improving/expanding transit services; land values around transit nodes continues to increase, etc., etc.

As far as I can tell, Portland never had a particularly strong urban structure; it was (and is) highly decentralized in a way similar to places like LA and other younger, car-centric cities that developed mostly in the latter half of the 20th century, which show similarly poor transit usage.

So...even if it was a gift to developers, why didn't they take the bait?

Regarding your so-called "gift to developers", you might be confusing the MAX with the Portland Streetcar.

Also, I maintain that Wikipedia article, and you'll be disappointed to know that the MAX's peak was actually much earlier: 42,193,180 in 2012 (Source)

[mhays]

Have the cities upzoned around stations? Allowed seven-story woodframes? Maybe eased entitlements?

Also, are cities required to accept growth, giving them an incentive to find spots to upzone, which would tend to be near transit?

Oregon does a great job limiting outward growth, but I wonder if it does enough on the other half of the equation.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by aquaticko

The confusing thing for me viz a vis MAX ridership is that the peak of ridership was, at this point, years ago: 2016 (per a graph from TriMet posted on the Wikipedia page), at just over 40 million. Prior to measure 110, prior to COVID, prior to work-from-home, etc., the system was annually down over a million riders from its peak. What happened to cause that change?

I grant that frequency's not great, but the idea of built a rail transit system is to spur development around stations, which has mostly not happened. Don't bother mentioning things like Orenco; it's almost like in terms of its influence on Portland urban structure, it may as well not exist. It's just kind of a joke to say "MAX was just a favor for developers", because if it was, it clearly didn't work. The way this is all supposed to work--or at least does in places with good transit ridership--is that land values increase around transit nodes; cities reap tax windfalls; taxes go to running/maintaining/improving/expanding transit services; land values around transit nodes continues to increase, etc., etc.

As far as I can tell, Portland never had a particularly strong urban structure; it was (and is) highly decentralized in a way similar to places like LA and other younger, car-centric cities that developed mostly in the latter half of the 20th century, which show similarly poor transit usage.

So...even if it was a gift to developers, why didn't they take the bait?

I will say, when I moved here in 2003, there were so many key stops for urban redevelopment, but 20+ years later and so many of them have yet to see any real development. There has been some successes besides Orenco, along the Yellow line through Interstate Ave has seen some huge impacts with redevelopment, but Interstate also has a built infrastructure that the MAX line ran through to work off of which is much easier than building an urban district from scratch. This is where Trimet, Metro, and Oregon should be been more proactive with to help spur those developments around light rail stations.

Gresham, Milwaukie, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all starting to finally see new urban development near light rail stops, so that is a plus.

[aquaticko]

Originally Posted by dizflip

Regarding your so-called "gift to developers", you might be confusing the MAX with the Portland Streetcar.

Not my words; I hear it from people who say we should just be devolving MAX services to buses. They also tend to be the so-called "left NIMBYs" who don't want any sort of large-scale development happening, even if it means displacement, rent burdening, increases in homelessness, and other such things. In their brains, if it's big and/or new, it must be bad.

Also, I maintain that Wikipedia article, and you'll be disappointed to know that the MAX's peak was actually much earlier: 42,193,180 in 2012 (Source)

Ah, well, more to the point, then. What's gone wrong with Portland in the past 13 years? (COVID obviously notwithstanding.)

[RED_PDXer]

Originally Posted by aquaticko

Ah, well, more to the point, then. What's gone wrong with Portland in the past 13 years? (COVID obviously notwithstanding.)

This topic has been researched extensively. Here's one paper, but they all point to similar things. Although it's impossible to pinpoint exact cause and effect, it's likely due to a few bigger issues such as the gig economy effects on mobility with Uber and Lyft providing cheaper alternatives to taxis and introduction of electric scooters and bikes. Most research papers will point to some demographic trends, which probably vary region by region. In the Portland region, the more transit dependent, lower-income riders have been increasingly priced out of the inner city where transit was more frequent and easy to use. Many now live further out, where transit is more challenging to provide efficiently, single land use zoning dominates, and pedestrian facilities are lacking. As a result, fares have increased for this and many other reasons.

Things may improve through automation (no drivers, just safety and security staffers) resulting in lower fares and increased on-time performance, increased inner city development with affordable housing, faster and efficient transit (dedicated transit lanes and signal priority), and more development in mixed-use suburban centers. Taxis will be automated too, but they will still just carry one or a few people making the same trip and take up more space. In Portland, specifically, I don't see how things improve without community safety improving. The streets are still full of people experiencing drug addiction, mental illness, and crime, and transit is an extension of the community.

[subterranean]

I too often thought "what the hell is going on here" especially since the westside MAX stations have been zoned high-density mixed use for like 3 decades now. While there are height limits (which I personally have advocated for lifting in my role as a planner), there really hasn't been a lot of demand for development above 5-6 stories. Despite this, I've seen a huge uptick in development since I've lived on the westside.

It's taken a while for Trimet to pivot and change its mindset from being a park and ride provider to a land owner with significant holdings that can a) bring them $, and b) increase ridership if developed. When downtown Portland was thriving and people saw transit as a viable way to get to their downtown offices, ridership was high because it was cheaper than paying $12 a day for parking, especially when most major employers front the transit pass to employees for free. But with ridership down, Trimet's strategy has changed. They have a TOD work unit now, responsible for long range planning and development of their real estate holdings.

Second, unlike many other parts of the country, the suburbs of Portland weren't seen as very desirable by a lot of people moving here. Sunbelt cities, with their comparatively cheap suburban housing, don't seem to attract as many urban-minded, bohemian, gay/transgender, non-conformity types as Portland and this has been a boon for the central city, with its good urban experience overall. While the westside has always benefited from Intel/Nike families wanting single family suburban homes, it wasn't like this was front and center in Portland's image as an attractor to the region. But starting with the housing crisis in 2016, and then Covid pushing people out of the central city, Washington County has seen a lot more infill. Prices have gone way up in Washington County post-COVID and we're seeing nice stories about Beaverton in the local papers. Restaurants and other businesses moved (and continue to move) to the west side. Infill continues to happen all over. Local governments have continued to loosen restrictions for missing middle, removing or lowering parking requirements, redoing downtown plans, etc.

A lot of the infill is regulated affordable, too. Willow Creek Crossing added 120 units, Sunset View added 236 units. Merlo Station has a few hundred units. The Mary Ann added 50+. Barcelona added nearly 100 units (47 affordable).

And on the infill note, there have been thousands of units built in the last several years, and thousands more units currently under construction right now near westside MAX stations. Arc Central just added 230 units to downtown Beaverton. Modera just added 312 units. Merrill Gardens added 140 units just recently completed in downtown Hillsboro. A boatload of units have been added out at Amberglen.

There are 1,043 units under construction near Merlo/Elmonica/Willow Creek. Peterkort has plans for redevelopment. Cedar Hills Shopping Center has infill plans. Sunset Transit has infill plans. Trimet has plans to develop the park and ride at Willow Creek. Tanasbourne has infill plans at the Macy's site. Hall and Westgate in downtown Beaverton will add a couple hundred units.

There is a ton of activity happening and I can't even begin to name all the projects here, but I think the stations are heading on a better trajectory now. More than anything, I think the public facilities need to catch up and stop widening every damn road, start encouraging more ped/bike connections through neighborhoods (like the Augusta Ped Bridge), and building more grade separated bike trails. I have no doubt the state will bail out Trimet and ridership will begin to turn around.

[aquaticko]

@RED_PDXer Ah, see, the effects of rideshare are something I always forget because I never use them. It's definitely an ideologically-motivated choice, but it's also almost always so much cheaper to take the bus/MAX, or walk if feasible.

@subterranean I'm definitely encouraged by the upswing in development on the Westside; it's been noticeable even in the 5 years since I moved out here. It's just a shame that Portland proper's appeal seems to have backslid in the past few years even as acknowledgement that it needs more development--more density, more people--has increased, because even as development picks up outside of the city, every metro area needs a core, and nowhere in the region is close to matching Portland's name recognition as the city in the region.

And you know how much I agree with you on the mismatch between increasing Westside urbanism/ODOT and PBOT infrastructure design.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by RED_PDXer

This topic has been researched extensively. Here's one paper, but they all point to similar things. Although it's impossible to pinpoint exact cause and effect, it's likely due to a few bigger issues such as the gig economy effects on mobility with Uber and Lyft providing cheaper alternatives to taxis and introduction of electric scooters and bikes. Most research papers will point to some demographic trends, which probably vary region by region. In the Portland region, the more transit dependent, lower-income riders have been increasingly priced out of the inner city where transit was more frequent and easy to use. Many now live further out, where transit is more challenging to provide efficiently, single land use zoning dominates, and pedestrian facilities are lacking. As a result, fares have increased for this and many other reasons.

Things may improve through automation (no drivers, just safety and security staffers) resulting in lower fares and increased on-time performance, increased inner city development with affordable housing, faster and efficient transit (dedicated transit lanes and signal priority), and more development in mixed-use suburban centers. Taxis will be automated too, but they will still just carry one or a few people making the same trip and take up more space. In Portland, specifically, I don't see how things improve without community safety improving. The streets are still full of people experiencing drug addiction, mental illness, and crime, and transit is an extension of the community.

Also as stated many times on this forum, MAX through downtown is painfully slow. Having been in DC a lot for work recently, with trains running 5 minutes headways and my train time takes 5 minutes; a similar total distance trip (~2.5 miles) in Portland’s core (Providence park to Lloyd) take 19 minutes (crazy slow trains). In DC the transit time is the same/faster than a car. In Portland, for that same distance downtown, a car is 3x faster. That’s a major uphill battle for Max, especially now with the convenience of ride shares (as Portland isn’t dense enough to have been a “cab” city like NYC, Philly, etc, I
MAX never really had to compete with cabs in a significant way).

[dizflip]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Also as stated many times on this forum, MAX through downtown is painfully slow. Having been in DC a lot for work recently, with trains running 5 minutes headways and my train time takes 5 minutes; a similar total distance trip (~2.5 miles) in Portland’s core (Providence park to Lloyd) take 19 minutes (crazy slow trains). In DC the transit time is the same/faster than a car. In Portland, for that same distance downtown, a car is 3x faster. That’s a major uphill battle for Max, especially now with the convenience of ride shares (as Portland isn’t dense enough to have been a “cab” city like NYC, Philly, etc, I
MAX never really had to compete with cabs in a significant way).

The downtown tunnel should be number one priority for JPACT/the RTP but of course they would rather keep pursuing the Rose Quarter freeway project.

[ThatDarnSacramentan]

For anyone interested, which I'm guessing is most if you're on this site, PBOT has just launched a public survey seeking input on the city's transportation plans for 2045.

Took about 10 minutes to fill out, and half that was just condensing my answers down to the 350 character limit for responses.

[PhillyPDX]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/s...283-9d26992f-ec07-42a6-b9e1-dd88a2662214

Makes sense.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

I was just looking at Trimet ridership. YTD MAX (through May) max is up 8% YOY. But then decreased in last 2 months, with May being down almost 2.5% from last May. I wonder why the decrease suddenly? Weather was great this May. June data will be interesting to see when it's released, if a trend down exists or not.

I bet part of initial bump YOY is Fed worker returning to office. Not a big Federal city, but with such small overall ridership, say even 2,000 workers returning to office would add around 40,000 monthly trips. From my friends in fed service, they all get fully paid transit, so reasonable to believe a very large % of fed works take trimet.

June numbers are out. MAX ridership loss accelerated for June, down 7% YOY. Clearly a trend, especially considering work from home is back to a new normal, and really can't be used as an excuse (if anything continued decrease in WFH should be bumping numbers). 3 straight months of accelerating YOY ridership losses.

[aquaticko]

Metro should be treating the situation with the MAX as an emergent situation. If no one wants to get to the city that's the center of your economic region, you have serious a problem, one which will eventually threaten the vitality of everything here.

[babs]

Originally Posted by aquaticko

Metro should be treating the situation with the MAX as an emergent situation. If no one wants to get to the city that's the center of your economic region, you have serious a problem, one which will eventually threaten the vitality of everything here.

Do they still publish station by station statistics? Would be interesting in seeing if certain stations have had major decreases in boardings.

[RED_PDXer]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

June numbers are out. MAX ridership loss accelerated for June, down 7% YOY. Clearly a trend, especially considering work from home is back to a new normal, and really can't be used as an excuse (if anything continued decrease in WFH should be bumping numbers). 3 straight months of accelerating YOY ridership losses.

Here is the report I believe you are referring to.
Three months don't make a trend. MAX was down 6.6% for weekly boardings from last June. Monthly drops can be anomalies due to service disruptions or other events. For example, Blue, Red, and Green lines were were all disrupted on June 8-9 due to construction of the temporary platform at 82nd ave for station modernization. There could have been a big convention last June that made that month stand out to also skew the comparison. In the two months prior to that, the Eastside line from Gateway to Gresham had scheduled maintenance disrupt service for two weeks from April 27 to May 10. Lately, TriMet has been performing some major maintenance on certain parts of the MAX system, like replacing sections of the overhead power lines that have been in use for almost 40 years and replacing wooden railroad ties on the oldest segment with concrete ties. These activities are likely to skew ridership data for the months they occur in. Similarly this September, MAX Blue and Red lines will see a weeklong closure from September 7-13 of the tunnel section to replace the overhead electrical lines, so I would predict that month's ridership will not be impressive either.

More interestingly, June is the end of TriMet's fiscal year and MAX ridership was up 5.9% fiscal year 2025 YOY. Also, bus ridership was up 3.7% fiscal year 2025 YOY. Overall, transit ridership has been steadily increasing year over year, but it's still not back to pre-pandemic levels. This is the case in most US cities with some outliers.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by RED_PDXer

Here is the report I believe you are referring to.
Three months don't make a trend. MAX was down 6.6% for weekly boardings from last June. Monthly drops can be anomalies due to service disruptions or other events. For example, Blue, Red, and Green lines were were all disrupted on June 8-9 due to construction of the temporary platform at 82nd ave for station modernization. There could have been a big convention last June that made that month stand out to also skew the comparison. In the two months prior to that, the Eastside line from Gateway to Gresham had scheduled maintenance disrupt service for two weeks from April 27 to May 10. Lately, TriMet has been performing some major maintenance on certain parts of the MAX system, like replacing sections of the overhead power lines that have been in use for almost 40 years and replacing wooden railroad ties on the oldest segment with concrete ties. These activities are likely to skew ridership data for the months they occur in. Similarly this September, MAX Blue and Red lines will see a weeklong closure from September 7-13 of the tunnel section to replace the overhead electrical lines, so I would predict that month's ridership will not be impressive either.

More interestingly, June is the end of TriMet's fiscal year and MAX ridership was up 5.9% fiscal year 2025 YOY. Also, bus ridership was up 3.7% fiscal year 2025 YOY. Overall, transit ridership has been steadily increasing year over year, but it's still not back to pre-pandemic levels. This is the case in most US cities with some outliers.

I would think a large entity like tri met is not prone to the white noise of a few stations closing temporarily as these things happens every year due to maintenance, in every city. These types of things are required to keep a rail line safe and operational. As I did note previously, MAX ridership was up YTD, until it started to accelerate downward each of the last 3 months (not just June). A 3 month seasonally-controlled trend. Or "trend". And yes busses are "trending" up, so are people now preferring busses over MAX, to the point people are switching mode of transit? If so, that's very notable.

MAX is a hugely expensive operation if ridership (per rider) can't get back closer to pre pandemic values, and it's currently not pointing in the right direction. So now what? Regardless, I bet tri met leaders are noticing.

[PhillyPDX]

This is an interesting stat that surprised me. I thought more riders would be avoiding transit and moving to convenient ride shares, therefore leading to the stagnant trimet number we see.

But with stagnant trimet numbers (Nov 2025 was exactly the same ridership as Nov 2023, and remains 50% below the 2018 peak), this makes me wonder, are people even leaving their houses? Or does everyone just drive everywhere now?

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2025...ding-uber-and-lyft-or-calling-taxis.html

[dizflip]

Driving westbound 26 from downtown weekend before last, there was a huge HUGE backup at the Oregon Zoo exit for Zoolights. Mind you, TriMet is offering free rides to all Zoolight ticket holders.

Seeing that tells me people would rather suffer in horrible traffic than the alternative.

TriMet has got to step up its security and marketing campaign. I've seen staff ride the train more often than not lately but that's obviously not enough. The crime train perception is strong here, unfortunately. And now you have the funding deficit that will make service even less reliable...

It's a damn shame how much momentum this region had for light rail 20 years ago, only to completely f*ck it all up.

[aquaticko]

Originally Posted by dizflip

Driving westbound 26 from downtown weekend before last, there was a huge HUGE backup at the Oregon Zoo exit for Zoolights. Mind you, TriMet is offering free rides to all Zoolight ticket holders.

Seeing that tells me people would rather suffer in horrible traffic than the alternative.

TriMet has got to step up its security and marketing campaign. I've seen staff ride the train more often than not lately but that's obviously not enough. The crime train perception is strong here, unfortunately. And now you have the funding deficit that will make service even less reliable...

It's a damn shame how much momentum this region had for light rail 20 years ago, only to completely f*ck it all up.

It's so frustrating. The perception of security issues is so far divorced from reality at this point. If it was more justified during the pandemic, that was due to low ridership; it wasn't that different from how abandoned buildings tend to be squatted in because those people do have to live somewhere. People will pay 80 bucks for an Uber to the airport--or worse, pay ~$150 a week to park--when it's a $5.60 roundtrip to anywhere on the MAX.The 48 bus I take to work--and the MAX/FX2 I take for a regular appointment on the eastside--are all perfectly comfortable, and do seem to be pretty well ridden.

At least, they are now. How they'll fare if/when they're running half as often or less, only time will tell.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by aquaticko

It's so frustrating. The perception of security issues is so far divorced from reality at this point. If it was more justified during the pandemic, that was due to low ridership; it wasn't that different from how abandoned buildings tend to be squatted in because those people do have to live somewhere. People will pay 80 bucks for an Uber to the airport--or worse, pay ~$150 a week to park--when it's a $5.60 roundtrip to anywhere on the MAX.The 48 bus I take to work--and the MAX/FX2 I take for a regular appointment on the eastside--are all perfectly comfortable, and do seem to be pretty well ridden.

At least, they are now. How they'll fare if/when they're running half as often or less, only time will tell.

It’s also convenience. From my place in NE pdx it’s a 50 min trimet ride with 1 transfer (not including waiting up to 15 mins for red line due to headways). Or a 20 min uber ride, currently showing as only $23. Absolute no brainer, esp when considering more than 1 passenger ($11 for 2 passengers on max). Uber saves my family (4 people) 2 man-hours of time to get to pdx. That’s pretty crazy for a one way ride and less than 10 miles traveled.