Population projections for London

[jammer139]

LFP article on population projections from StatsCan. A return to historical population growth numbers is back.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/lond...growth-set-to-slow-significantly-statcan

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by jammer139

LFP article on population projections from StatsCan. A return to historical population growth numbers is back.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/lond...growth-set-to-slow-significantly-statcan

Growth strains existing infrastructure, but need growth to fund new infrastructure projects

Vicious cycle

[Snark]

Originally Posted by haljackey

Growth strains existing infrastructure, but need growth to fund new infrastructure projects

Vicious cycle

Development charges primarily fund expansion of networks to service that new growth. If new growth slows, then in theory the demand for network expansion also slows. There is still funding from other sources for capital improvements to existing infrastructure. Where it could be tricky is where development funds pay for a portion of upgrades to existing assets (using a formula).

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Snark

Development charges primarily fund expansion of networks to service that new growth. If new growth slows, then in theory the demand for network expansion also slows. There is still funding from other sources for capital improvements to existing infrastructure. Where it could be tricky is where development funds pay for a portion of upgrades to existing assets (using a formula).

Ya we're like 30 years behind on infrastructure expansion, we need to build more just to serve the current population properly... Not to mention the cost to fix old infrastructure is going to cost more here than in a newer city.

Ex London has a lot more 100 year old / aging infrastructure than say Brampton. Even if both cities had flat population growth, it's going to cost more to just maintain what we have here in London.

[ssiguy]

You can bet London is already well into population decline. The new StatsCan figures released today show Ontario decreasing by a whopping 67,000 in the last 3 months alone. London will certainly see it's fair share of that especially due to having Fanshawe with it's huge number of international students. Kitchener will be hit even harder as Conestoga has turned into a diploma mill.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by jammer139

LFP article on population projections from StatsCan. A return to historical population growth numbers is back.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/lond...growth-set-to-slow-significantly-statcan

The article you linked said flat or decreases for London/Middlesex County. No growth or population decline is the historical norm? I thought it was just Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Chicoutimi, Sydney, and a few other depressed places that experienced that.

[jammer139]

Here is today's piece on population drop.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/canada-records-first-population-drop-since-pandemic-statcan/

[MolsonExport]

CMA results for 2025 have just been released.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
567,539 586,473 607,654 626,875 633,002

We did better (this year, that is) than KWC (up by only 2K), and way better than Toronto (down by 1K).

[jammer139]

LFP article on population growth slowdown.

May 2026 Census is only a few months away now.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/london-population-hits-record-despite-slow-growth

[MolsonExport]

We can expect a lot of stalled condo projects to remain stalled. Even during the boom years, it seemed as though only 1/3 announced projects got built.

[GreatTallNorth2]

Yet it is somewhat surprising to see the number of projects that are starting construction such as Legacy Village (32 floors), the new tower by York on Southdale which is in addition to the one already U/C, the large tower on 300-320 King Street (35 floors), Tricar's building on Ridout, etc.

I guess a lot of these buildings will take years to build and the rental/condo market might improved by then.

Also, some of these projects are not totally dependent on the overall market. What I mean is that if a developer feels they have a great location and project they are building, they probably feel they can attract people from less desirable rental units. The large tower on Richmond/Oxford by Fitzrovia is an example of this. They know a large number of students will move to London to go to Western every year. They have confidence that their project close to both downtown and Western will attract students to it. And perhaps fewer students will go to some of the lesser desirable ghetto student housing.

[MolsonExport]

London census metropolitan area population

2025: 633,002
2024: 626,875
2023: 607,654
2022: 586,473
2021: 567,539


Projections have local population growth remaining flat and not rising until 2028, when about 18,000 new residents could be added.

From 2020 to 2024 London grew by about 50,000 people and the surrounding communities included in the census metropolitan area added about 20,000. That surge made the London region one of the fastest-growing areas in Ontario.
Article content

“Aside from the tariffs, another factor that will likely hurt the city’s economy over the short term is the downgrade in the trajectory of population growth,” a Signal49 Research report states. “Weaker population growth over the next three years . . . will put downward pressure on a number of London’s industries, especially those dependent on students.”

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/anal...-london-region-lost-5000-jobs-in-a-month

[jammer139]

StatsCan has put out the notice to hire upwards of 32,000 people to work on the Census coming up in May.

https://www.census.gc.ca/en/index

[jammer139]

LFP article on Census hiring.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/look...ing-underway-amid-london-area-job-losses