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  #2001  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 2:27 AM
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Newfoundland Election: Razor Thin PC Majority



A very slim majority victory for the NL PC's.

Shades of the 2018 NB election.

Will the PCs be able to convince an MLA from another party to take on the role of speaker? probably...
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  #2002  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 11:03 AM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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A very slim majority victory for the NL PC's.

Shades of the 2018 NB election.

Will the PCs be able to convince an MLA from another party to take on the role of speaker? probably...
They also might entice one of the 2 independents to take the role.
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  #2003  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 12:16 PM
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They also might entice one of the 2 independents to take the role.
yes, I noticed there were two independent MLAs elected. I'd assume they are the most likely candidates, but I know nothing about them.

This result doesn't really seem very shocking after NL leaned far more Conservative in the federal election than the polling indicated.
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  #2004  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 12:45 PM
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Looks like it's mainly Liberal Fatigue affecting NL at the moment, both at the Federal and Provincial level. Plus the article I glanced at seemed to say the Provincial Liberals basically ran a status quo campaign with only one core plank, and it didn't really resonate with people.

It'll be interesting to see how stable this PC government will be. Looks like they have a 2-seat wiggle room (less the speaker) so I don't see them going the distance, but a year or two in power should happen. After that, we'll see if NL goes red again, or decides to continue their Blue experiment. This could be like Alberta flirting with the NDP a few years ago; then racing back to the conservative parties afterwards.
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  #2005  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 12:46 PM
CharlotteCountyLogan CharlotteCountyLogan is offline
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Pending the results of the Yukon election next month Holt might be the only Liberal premier left in the country.
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  #2006  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 1:26 PM
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Pending the results of the Yukon election next month Holt might be the only Liberal premier left in the country.
As long as the Liberals stay centrist, they should claw their way back. No one party remains dominant forever. It's always a good idea to throw the bums out about every decade.

If however the Liberals veer back towards a wonky (and wacky) social justice activist left wing political agenda, then anything can happen.

Carney does well. He appeals to the centrist majority rational voting base (including non ideological Progressive Conservatives). Provincial Liberal parties need to sit up and pay attention
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  #2007  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 1:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
Looks like it's mainly Liberal Fatigue affecting NL at the moment, both at the Federal and Provincial level. Plus the article I glanced at seemed to say the Provincial Liberals basically ran a status quo campaign with only one core plank, and it didn't really resonate with people.

It'll be interesting to see how stable this PC government will be. Looks like they have a 2-seat wiggle room (less the speaker) so I don't see them going the distance, but a year or two in power should happen. After that, we'll see if NL goes red again, or decides to continue their Blue experiment. This could be like Alberta flirting with the NDP a few years ago; then racing back to the conservative parties afterwards.
"Blue experiment"?!? I suggest you read up on Newfoundland politics. Newfoundland has never flirted with the Conservatives. There have been Conservative majority governments from 1972-1989 and from 2003-2015. Newfoundland voters have a tendency to elect one party for an extended period of time; then throw them out for the other colour; with the cycle repeating itself. A very different scenario than Alberta.

The Liberals have been in power for 10 years (2015-2025); which included a minority government elected in 2019 and Andrew Furey winning a slim majority in 2021 (22 seats). Now it's back to blue.
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  #2008  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 1:46 PM
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Tories have governed NL for years.

As somewhat of a centrist, to me, the Liberals post 2015 have made a mess of fundamental aspects of life in Canada. Covid aside. Life is markedly worse here than say 2014. It is as if they prescribed all the wrong medicine in all extreme doses. I'll likely never vote for the party again.
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  #2009  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 1:47 PM
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True enough. I was just going by recent years / recent memory.

All things considered, from one of the articles I read, the Liberals seemed to lose mainly due to vote splitting in some close races. Which to me is a sign they really should come back around to looking at Election reform options like Ranked Choice. As long as the NDP and Green parties remain a factor in Canadian politics, they're going to be splitting their voter base with those parties, against the Conservatives who rarely have a second option to share with.
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  #2010  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2025, 1:53 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
As long as the Liberals stay centrist, they should claw their way back. No one party remains dominant forever. It's always a good idea to throw the bums out about every decade.

If however the Liberals veer back towards a wonky (and wacky) social justice activist left wing political agenda, then anything can happen.

Carney does well. He appeals to the centrist majority rational voting base (including non ideological Progressive Conservatives). Provincial Liberal parties need to sit up and pay attention
I think that probably depends on the province. The liberals are basically a useless party in Ontario and Bonnie Crombie was about as milque toast moderate liberal candidate as you could get and Ford continues to pile up beatdown after beatdown despite his obvious corruption and spending worse than any provincial liberal politician. All it takes is a couple of gee golly folks and bad words about Trump and talk about chapmans ice cream bars and his voters flock to the polls while the opposition is non existent.

I think in Ontario you would need some sort of economic leftwing populist type if such a thing exists. Maybe something closer to a Wab Kinew although I think that type of communicator doesn't exactly grow on trees. In the Atlantic provinces i think you are right though, moderate politicians will continue to swap back and forth for years to come. As soon as Higgs brought in outhouse, running a nasty campaign, removed his moderates from decision making and ran Faytene as one of his star candidates he got the boot.
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  #2011  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 1:09 PM
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Dominic LeBlanc's pork plans to spend $1.3 billion to build a new hospital for inmates in his riding is misguided and a “profound misallocation of resources"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inmate-ombudsman-hospital-budget-9.6960241
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  #2012  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 1:28 PM
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There are costs associated with providing mental health services to inmates in civilian institutions as well.

The Moncton Hospital has long had a "prison ward" since we are the facility serving Renous, Dorchester and Springhill. These people may be mentally ill, but, they are also inmates, often incarcerated for violent crimes. Hospital staff and other patients deserve to be protected, and, to feel safe in the hospital environment. The ward is sealed off from the rest of the hospital, and, there are guards.

The facility proposed for Dorchester will not be in the prison, but, will be "prison adjacent." With 155 beds, there will be a large psychiatric staff, allowing for specialization, and better psychiatric care than would be achievable in a community hospital setting lacking such specialization for violent criminal offenders.

I know that Saint Johners have a visceral hatred for Dominic since they think he favours SE NB over Saint John, but, this facility is needed. The main issue is where it should be built. As a New Brunswicker, I'm sure you would rather see it built in southeast NB rather than Ontario. Right????

Don't be partisan and parochial. Think of it as a win for New Brunswick as a province.
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Last edited by MonctonRad; Oct 31, 2025 at 1:45 PM.
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  #2013  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 2:13 PM
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I mean I reject your characterization entirely. It's exactly this partisan attitude I take issue with and it's easy to notice these patterns from Liberal politicians from SE NB.
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  #2014  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 2:23 PM
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I mean I reject your characterization entirely. It's exactly this partisan attitude I take issue with and it's easy to notice these patterns from Liberal politicians from SE NB.
If it was to be built in NB at all, it would have gone to Dorchester (or Renous).

Do you have a problem with this being built in southeastern NB?

As I said, this will be a national level inpatient psychiatric facility for violent offenders. It could just as easily have been built in Ontario or Alberta. Would you prefer this????

BTW, politically I am a Conservative, but on the progressive side, and found Higgs and his ilk difficult to take.
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  #2015  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 3:01 PM
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If it was to be built in NB at all, it would have gone to Dorchester (or Renous).

Do you have a problem with this being built in southeastern NB?

As I said, this will be a national level inpatient psychiatric facility for violent offenders. It could just as easily have been built in Ontario or Alberta. Would you prefer this????

BTW, politically I am a Conservative, but on the progressive side, and found Higgs and his ilk difficult to take.
I agree this project is a win for the province as it's going to be built one way or another. And it would have to be built by a federal penitentiary and that would be Dorchester or Renous and Dorchester being a minimum / medium facility with double the capacity of Renous I think it makes the most sense to build it there. I agree 3x the initial budget is a concern but that's an issue for the feds.
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  #2016  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 3:40 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
If it was to be built in NB at all, it would have gone to Dorchester (or Renous).

Do you have a problem with this being built in southeastern NB?

As I said, this will be a national level inpatient psychiatric facility for violent offenders. It could just as easily have been built in Ontario or Alberta. Would you prefer this????

BTW, politically I am a Conservative, but on the progressive side, and found Higgs and his ilk difficult to take.
I feel as if you're conflating a few separate critiques here. For example, I agree that this facility makes sense in proximity to existing federal correctional facilities, just as I [as a New Brunswicker] similarly agree that getting a $1.3 billion investment in New Brunswick is a good outcome versus that money being spent in another province. However, it is also very evident that there is a long-standing pattern of government spending inequity in the province, one that started long before Saint John recently lost its centuries-old rank as the largest city in the province.

As I heard it described by a colleague in GNB the other day, "Moncton gets spending because it's labeled as 'good for the province,' Fredericton gets spending because it's labeled as the capital, and Saint John is just labeled as whiners."

Spending does not have to be equal everywhere, that would be silly to assume, but that doesn't pre-invalidate any criticism of political favouritism just as it doesn't justify the pre-supposed dismissal of the concerns of those asking questions.
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  #2017  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 6:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post


There are costs associated with providing mental health services to inmates in civilian institutions as well.

The Moncton Hospital has long had a "prison ward" since we are the facility serving Renous, Dorchester and Springhill. These people may be mentally ill, but, they are also inmates, often incarcerated for violent crimes. Hospital staff and other patients deserve to be protected, and, to feel safe in the hospital environment. The ward is sealed off from the rest of the hospital, and, there are guards.

The facility proposed for Dorchester will not be in the prison, but, will be "prison adjacent." With 155 beds, there will be a large psychiatric staff, allowing for specialization, and better psychiatric care than would be achievable in a community hospital setting lacking such specialization for violent criminal offenders.

I know that Saint Johners have a visceral hatred for Dominic since they think he favours SE NB over Saint John, but, this facility is needed. The main issue is where it should be built. As a New Brunswicker, I'm sure you would rather see it built in southeast NB rather than Ontario. Right????

Don't be partisan and parochial. Think of it as a win for New Brunswick as a province.
I don't think Saint Johners have a visceral hatred for Dominic. Some might, but way too many in Saint John use Moncton as a boogeyman, while giving our local leaders and politicians a pass. At the same time, I think far too many Saint Johners have given up on on the idea of catching back up with Moncton, which I think is frankly ridiculous.

I guess the only issue Saint Johners or Frederictonians might have with this specific project, is the notion that $1.3 billion is being spent on mental health facilities in Moncton for the seriously mentally ill and dangerous offenders, when there's lots of these same problematic offenders in the Saint John and Fredericton regions. I think it's perfectly valid that we should want to see some big investments into facilities that provide similar care in our regions, or between the Saint John and Fredericton regions.

Why not push for $2 billion? $1 billion into facilities in the Moncton Region, along with .5 billion into similar facilities for the Saint John and Fredericton Regions? I think a situation like that would be seen as more fair, considering that Moncton has almost double the homeless population of Saint John. Sure, patients can always be transported to this facility from the Saint John and Fredericton regions, but that puts a bigger transportation burden on their family members.

If the feds can pony up 1.3 billion for this facility in the Moncton Region, they could also pony up a billion or half a billion for a combined airport between Moncton and Fredericton. They could also invest a few billion into converting the Saint John Dry Dock and adjacent former shipbuilding facilities to build the RCN's main submarine maintenance facility, and maybe even build a small submarine base with a military housing component. Politics is the art of the possible, but we need leaders with vision to actually get things done, and change things for the better.

Saint John's political leaders need to think far bigger, and far more ambitiously. It's foolish to fault "Don Dom" for being an effective, influential politician that achieves results for his region.

Wayne Long is a decent MP, but he certainly does not have the same level of power and influence with the federal government that Doiminc LeBlanc has. Nonetheless, there's a lot of investments in New Brunswick outside of the Moncton region/SouthWest NB that Dominic LeBlanc should be more strongly advocating for that would still positively impact his region. Dominic LeBlanc and Susan Holt are the two most influential Liberal politicians in New Brunswick, and they both should be pushing for far more federal investment into New Brunswick.

Dominic LeBlanc should be a fierce supporter for investments and expansions into both the Port Saint John and the Port of Halifax, especially given his current portfolio. Moncton is located in between the two major maritime ports and will also benefit from major investments into port expansion.
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  #2018  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 7:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
If it was to be built in NB at all, it would have gone to Dorchester (or Renous).

Do you have a problem with this being built in southeastern NB?

As I said, this will be a national level inpatient psychiatric facility for violent offenders. It could just as easily have been built in Ontario or Alberta. Would you prefer this????

BTW, politically I am a Conservative, but on the progressive side, and found Higgs and his ilk difficult to take.
The CBC article clearly indicates the ombudsman ("Correctional Investigator of Canada") for Corrections Canada calls the proposed facility "misguided and a profound misallocation of resources". They feel the resources could be better spent in partnership with provinces.

It seems to be an example of Dom's pork barrel.
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  #2019  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 7:52 PM
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I feel as if you're conflating a few separate critiques here. For example, I agree that this facility makes sense in proximity to existing federal correctional facilities, just as I [as a New Brunswicker] similarly agree that getting a $1.3 billion investment in New Brunswick is a good outcome versus that money being spent in another province. However, it is also very evident that there is a long-standing pattern of government spending inequity in the province, one that started long before Saint John recently lost its centuries-old rank as the largest city in the province.

As I heard it described by a colleague in GNB the other day, "Moncton gets spending because it's labeled as 'good for the province,' Fredericton gets spending because it's labeled as the capital, and Saint John is just labeled as whiners."

Spending does not have to be equal everywhere, that would be silly to assume, but that doesn't pre-invalidate any criticism of political favouritism just as it doesn't justify the pre-supposed dismissal of the concerns of those asking questions.
Is Saint John labelled whiners by the feds or the province? (or both?)

Saint Johners definitely do have a unique propensity to complain, but when it comes to the people representing our region, many are not even Saint Johners, but rather residents of Saint John's bedroom communities, who do more than their fair share of whining and whinging about the state of the region, and about the state of the city at its centre, without contributing their fair share to the solutions needed to solve the many systemic problems plaguing this city and region.

If the Saint John Region really wants to change this perception, it should be far more willing to embrace big, ambitious, and transformational ideas for change.

If the communities of the Saint John Region were amalgamated into a single regional municipality, it could have a major impact on changing this perception of this city and region as being a "bunch of whiners".



Moreover, if we further wanted to change the perception of the Saint John Region, a new name (other than Saint John) should be adopted for the amalgamated regional municipality. Embracing a new name for the Saint John Region (without wiping the city of Saint John off the map) is entirely possible, and imo, entirely preferable to the status quo.

Not only would a new name for the region help lessen the Saint John/St. John's confusion... it would also lessen the negative stereotypes associated with Saint John, which are especially pervasive here within the province of New Brunswick and within the Saint John Region.

I think it's fair to say that Saint John has unique issues with our name (the negative stereotypes associated with the Saint John brand, and confusion with St. Johns) that Moncton and Fredericton don't have to deal with at all. Furthermore, I think it's fair to say that the Fredericton and Moncton Regions do a far better job collaborating and cooperating with each other to fund regional facilities and regional solutions, than the Saint John Region does.

I know you've suggested before that we don't need amalgamation if the GNB provides meaningful tax reforms that meet the needs of the city, we regionalize key services, cost share on other services and procurement, and invest in regional planning processes... but those are some pretty big ifs, and even if that all did happen, there would still be a lot of whining and conflict between the constituent communities of the region.

I think amalgamating as a single, regional municipality would do far more to change the conversation and change the perception of this city and region being a bunch of whiners. Not only would amalgamation significantly raise the median income of the region, it would also dramatically increase the population number that people see when they google us.

New name or not, if people googled the population of this city and the first result said 150,000 not 78,000, that would be a change well worth the complaints, messy politics, and petty arguments that inevitably surround any amalgamation process.

The most important thing to remember is that it's not the bedroom communities that have to be convinced that amalgamation is the right thing to do, it's the province that needs to be convinced! While, the current Minister of Local Government being the MLA for Quispamsis doesn't exactly bode well for the prospects of regional amalgamation in Saint John happening anytime soon, it's not as unrealistic an aspiration as it was when the MLA for Quispamsis was the premier.

I suspect Holt would want to win another election before her government even considered regional amalgamation in the Saint John Region, but who knows for sure. All three of Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Hampton will be far from safe seats in the next election if the PC's go with a more centrist leader than Higgs. Holt's Liberals could gain a lot of positive support within the city of Saint John should they be the government that finally delivers on regional amalgamation. Plus, if amalgamation is realized under a new name, not Saint John, and occurs after long promised comprehensive industrial tax reforms, amalgamation will be a far less bitter policy prescription to swallow for Saint John's bedroom communities.
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Peace and Athabasca and Coppermine and Slave, And Yukon and Mackenzie—the highroads of the brave. Saskatchewan, Assiniboine, the Bow and the Qu'Appelle, And many a prairie river whose name is like a spell. They rumor through the twilight at the edge of the unknown, "There's a message waiting for you, and a kingdom all your own. — Bliss Carman
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  #2020  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2025, 9:15 PM
Ozabald Ozabald is offline
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
Is Saint John labelled whiners by the feds or the province? (or both?)

Saint Johners definitely do have a unique propensity to complain, but when it comes to the people representing our region, many are not even Saint Johners, but rather residents of Saint John's bedroom communities, who do more than their fair share of whining and whinging about the state of the region, and about the state of the city at its centre, without contributing their fair share to the solutions needed to solve the many systemic problems plaguing this city and region.

If the Saint John Region really wants to change this perception, it should be far more willing to embrace big, ambitious, and transformational ideas for change.

If the communities of the Saint John Region were amalgamated into a single regional municipality, it could have a major impact on changing this perception of this city and region as being a "bunch of whiners".



Moreover, if we further wanted to change the perception of the Saint John Region, a new name (other than Saint John) should be adopted for the amalgamated regional municipality. Embracing a new name for the Saint John Region (without wiping the city of Saint John off the map) is entirely possible, and imo, entirely preferable to the status quo.

Not only would a new name for the region help lessen the Saint John/St. John's confusion... it would also lessen the negative stereotypes associated with Saint John, which are especially pervasive here within the province of New Brunswick and within the Saint John Region.

I think it's fair to say that Saint John has unique issues with our name (the negative stereotypes associated with the Saint John brand, and confusion with St. Johns) that Moncton and Fredericton don't have to deal with at all. Furthermore, I think it's fair to say that the Fredericton and Moncton Regions do a far better job collaborating and cooperating with each other to fund regional facilities and regional solutions, than the Saint John Region does.

I know you've suggested before that we don't need amalgamation if the GNB provides meaningful tax reforms that meet the needs of the city, we regionalize key services, cost share on other services and procurement, and invest in regional planning processes... but those are some pretty big ifs, and even if that all did happen, there would still be a lot of whining and conflict between the constituent communities of the region.

I think amalgamating as a single, regional municipality would do far more to change the conversation and change the perception of this city and region being a bunch of whiners. Not only would amalgamation significantly raise the median income of the region, it would also dramatically increase the population number that people see when they google us.

New name or not, if people googled the population of this city and the first result said 150,000 not 78,000, that would be a change well worth the complaints, messy politics, and petty arguments that inevitably surround any amalgamation process.

The most important thing to remember is that it's not the bedroom communities that have to be convinced that amalgamation is the right thing to do, it's the province that needs to be convinced! While, the current Minister of Local Government being the MLA for Quispamsis doesn't exactly bode well for the prospects of regional amalgamation in Saint John happening anytime soon, it's not as unrealistic an aspiration as it was when the MLA for Quispamsis was the premier.

I suspect Holt would want to win another election before her government even considered regional amalgamation in the Saint John Region, but who knows for sure. All three of Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Hampton will be far from safe seats in the next election if the PC's go with a more centrist leader than Higgs. Holt's Liberals could gain a lot of positive support within the city of Saint John should they be the government that finally delivers on regional amalgamation. Plus, if amalgamation is realized under a new name, not Saint John, and occurs after long promised comprehensive industrial tax reforms, amalgamation will be a far less bitter policy prescription to swallow for Saint John's bedroom communities.
Still on the Saint John vs. St. John's "confusion". Doesn't to be much of an issue oputide of youn posts.
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