Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[kikin]

Canadian dollar taking a beating means our current real estate prices looking like more and more of a bargain in the perspective of USD

[whatnext]

Hmm, Anne McMullin and the UDI don't seem to have ever heard of land costs (as in overpaying for land they thought they use to could shill to foreign buyers)

'We can no longer build what people can afford': Warning for Vancouver real estate as 2,500 condos sit unsold
Industry professionals say unbought condos could lead to big layoffs
-Lauren Vanderdeen · CBC News · Posted: Oct 01, 2025

Executives in Vancouver's real estate industry are warning of a glut of newly built condos sitting unsold and empty throughout the region.

About 2,500 new condos are sitting unsold and empty in Metro Vancouver, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

That number is double what it was last year, according to CMHC.

Anne McMullin, president and CEO of Urban Development Institute, says the reason is that condos cost more to build than local residents can afford.

"Costs have escalated so much in the last 10 years that to build a unit is out of the price range of 80 per cent of the public in the Metro Vancouver area," McMullin said.

Developers don't want to sell at a loss either, according to McMullin.

"You're not going to build to lose money."....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/unsold-condos-metro-vancouver-bc-2025-1.7647776

[MIPS]

‘Time for a housing bailout’: Metro Vancouver condo developer sounds alarm on industry in crisis

...

“It’s pretty much at a standstill. I think that getting enough sales to hit your construction financing targets is near impossible in these conditions,” said Saretsky. “I think for anyone that’s trying to launch today or is early in the process – it’s effectively dead.”

With buyers on the sidelines, StreetSide has shelved plans to build another 1000-unit new condo development in Surrey.

...


“The City of Surrey, like others, is trying to meet their targets,” said Meads.

“Mayor (Brenda) Locke has said, ‘I’ve got this many permits sitting ready for pickup.’ But the environment, the economic conditions, do not suit those developers – ourselves and others – picking up those permits and going ahead. So it’s on pause.”

Not only are new pre-sale projects on hold, developers are having a tough time selling units in recently completed buildings, with buyers looking to cheaper resale units instead.

...


“The way I look at it is, if the car industry which employs one tenth of the construction sector across the country says, ‘we’re in trouble,’ they get bailouts of billions of dollars,” said Meads. “It’s time for a housing bailout. And I’m not trying to offend any level of government, I’m saying that to me, it is a solution.”


https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article...oper-sounds-alarm-on-industry-in-crisis/

Oh man, I just don't understand it. I need to maintain my pyramid of margins to keep everyone from looking like lowly wage slaves I can't seem to find people willing to buy into these new developments. You know if you just got rid of these evil anti-foreign regulations things will clear up again or else look at all this housing stock you so desperately need in order to make your quotas. If this keeps up I might not even have the money to cover rent on my office. Please consider bailing us out. :'c

I still don't buy into these reports of a depressed housing market yet. We're still talking about single-digit percentages in terms of devaluation and they make it seem like the sky is falling. Even 2% reductions seem like they're going on suicide watch even though that's a 2% price drop on a $2million property. Nobody I know can look at that and say "Finally! I can afford a house!"

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by MIPS

Oh man, I just don't understand it. I need to maintain my pyramid of margins to keep everyone from looking like lowly wage slaves I can't seem to find people willing to buy into these new developments. You know if you just got rid of these evil anti-foreign regulations things will clear up again or else look at all this housing stock you so desperately need in order to make your quotas. If this keeps up I might not even have the money to cover rent on my office. Please consider bailing us out. :'c

I still don't buy into these reports of a depressed housing market yet. We're still talking about single-digit percentages in terms of devaluation and they make it seem like the sky is falling. Even 2% reductions seem like they're going on suicide watch even though that's a 2% price drop on a $2million property. Nobody I know can look at that and say "Finally! I can afford a house!"

They're specifically referencing the new condo apartment market, not the resale market.

And even for resale, the Fraser Valley real estate board is showing a 6.3% drop in benchmark price for apartments, year on year (so a bit more when you add inflation). Sales of resale detached homes was actually up 8.5% in the past year, but apartment sales are down 11.5%.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

They're specifically referencing the new condo apartment market, not the resale market.

And even for resale, the Fraser Valley real estate board is showing a 6.3% drop in benchmark price for apartments, year on year (so a bit more when you add inflation). Sales of resale detached homes was actually up 8.5% in the past year, but apartment sales are down 11.5%.

Which takes us back to prices in what year?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MIPS

[i]Oh man, I just don't understand it. I need to maintain my pyramid of margins to keep everyone from looking like lowly wage slaves I can't seem to find people willing to buy into these new developments. You know if you just got rid of these evil anti-foreign regulations things will clear up again or else look at all this housing stock you so desperately need in order to make your quotas. If this keeps up I might not even have the money to cover rent on my office. Please consider bailing us out. :'c

It's interesting that the government has no problem spending Billions to bail out US corporate auto manufacturing to save Canadian jobs, but when Canadians are desperate for housing, they can only think of how many more taxes (development charges) can be applied to Canadian real estate development companies paying Canadian workers to build housing for Canadians to live in.



Not saying we should subsidize them for Billions, but it's always fun to swap parties and/or industries around and see how silly the arguments look.

[MIPS]

Even though Mark campaigned on it, government-funded housing NEVER works out. You just end up with The Projects because it's the cheapest alternative compared to tens of thousands of new detached homes/duplexes/quadplexes.

These are sales of transparently high-end residences which were fine until foreign loopholes started to close and domestic sales dried up as money got tighter. Bailing out the auto industry saves a massive logistics chain of perpetual employment. Bailing out a condo development at best saves a bunch of low-quality union and temporary jobs until the project completes, then they are dispersed to find another site to apply at. Waving the threat of there not being enough housing because they can't do their own math is an asshole move to play.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Which takes us back to prices in what year?

This also. The era of the urban $100000 home is never coming back but when someone says sales and/or value is down X%, that's typically year over year, not overall. The number becomes far less important to most of the population still looking at $15000 off an otherwise still $875000 house. It's like buying a car for $65000 and being told you get $3000 cash back. Big woop? Just tell me the car is $62000.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Which takes us back to prices in what year?

Using the Bank of Canada inflation calculator, the benchmark price for a resale apartment in the Fraser Valley, at $510,400, is lower than in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

[kikin]

I'm still seeing condos selling downtown for asking or close to asking. Perhaps the investor market is down but people are buying condos to live in.

[SpongeG]

I heard a talk on the radio and the real estate guy said he felt like people don't want to buy whats being sold these days because the units are just way too small, and many of the potential buyers are living in older buildings renting or even owning and the current housing they have is a bigger and more comfortable and they just aren't willing or wanting to buy something so small as they are quite unliveable.
That's a valid reason, could we ever see the return of 90S sized unit? he did imply they would be willing to spend the money if the unit was bigger and more livable but whats out there just isn't livable anymore.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

I heard a talk on the radio and the real estate guy said he felt like people don't want to buy whats being sold these days because the units are just way too small, and many of the potential buyers are living in older buildings renting or even owning and the current housing they have is a bigger and more comfortable and they just aren't willing or wanting to buy something so small as they are quite unliveable.
That's a valid reason, could we ever see the return of 90S sized unit? he did imply they would be willing to spend the money if the unit was bigger and more livable but whats out there just isn't livable anymore.

There is an incredible amounts of seniors in this city that refuse to sell there houses because they refuse to live in a cement shoe box in the sky

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by djmk

There is an incredible amounts of seniors in this city that refuse to sell there houses because they refuse to live in a cement shoe box in the sky

There are also a lot of younger people who want to start a family and are having trouble finding decent sized two bedroom suites.

[GMD]

The idea that the housing market would be fine if only the developers weren't so dumb is silly in my opinion. Developers are not in some conspiracy to build small units nobody wants so that they can not sell them and go bankrupt.

If the market is there, they will build for it, the problem is just the general shortage of housing and excess of rules that makes prices so high that people can't afford to buy as big a place as they would like to.

[Tysonbrown]

This thread started in 2010. Are we there yet?

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by Tysonbrown

This thread started in 2010. Are we there yet?

Sure seems like it. Lots of heavily discounted houses coming up now, especially the obvious speculative properties.

Look at the price history on this one. It's a tear down adjacent to Holborn's Little Mountain mess. Down from an asking price of $3.8M in 2017, now sitting at $1.69M.

Gone from being a huge premium over adjacent properties, down to a discount relative to the neighbourhood.

Link

[logan5]

There's such a huge supply of density now, that being in a newly created high density zone is nothing special like it use to be - everybody is in a higher density zone, so that land value lift isn't there anymore, or at least not to near the same degree.

That's a good thing for people who have been locked out of the housing market. Hopefully there's a domino effect, where lower land prices means developers can offer a product to households having lower incomes.

[GMD]

Originally Posted by logan5

There's such a huge supply of density now, that being in a newly created high density zone is nothing special like it use to be - everybody is in a higher density zone, so that land value lift isn't there anymore, or at least not to near the same degree.

That's a good thing for people who have been locked out of the housing market. Hopefully there's a domino effect, where lower land prices means developers can offer a product to households having lower incomes.

Exactly, the only problem is that the developers have already bought a lot of land at the previous higher prices, so many times a project has to go into receivership so someone else can pick it up at a lower price point and make the numbers work.

Right now we are stuck in the painful in-between stage.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Sure seems like it. Lots of heavily discounted houses coming up now, especially the obvious speculative properties.

Look at the price history on this one. It's a tear down adjacent to Holborn's Little Mountain mess. Down from an asking price of $3.8M in 2017, now sitting at $1.69M.

Gone from being a huge premium over adjacent properties, down to a discount relative to the neighbourhood.

Link

Article on incentives from BIV:

Flurry of incentives as Vancouver presale market grinds to a halt
Recent perks include cars, vacations, even a free condo contest
Jami Makan
October 31

The presale condo market in Vancouver has slowed significantly, causing some developers to resort to novel marketing strategies, some experts say.

“We’re in a bit of a standoff where buyers are waiting for an offering that feels like a no-brainer, something to get them over the fear of buying now, and developers are waiting for a better market,” said Cam Good, owner of Vancouver-based KEY Marketing.

“They are not willing or able to meet the market where it’s at right now, which is why most project launches are on hold and the presale market’s at a virtual standstill.”…

… A lot of the time, the buyers are not aware of the market value of these properties, so they wouldn’t necessarily understand a very, very good deal in terms of price because they are not every day looking at prices,” Stewart said.

“Whereas if someone offers them the potential of a free condo or the potential of a brand-new car, or a trip to France or a trip to Hawaii with the purchase of a condo, that often can be very intriguing and compelling.”…

https://www.biv.com/news/real-estate/flu...r-presale-market-grinds-to-halt-11427459

[RedArbutus]

Big condo development near us in North Van (Innova) just announced that they're offering guaranteed placement in one of the two daycares opening in the building with two years of prepaid admission, 5 days a week. Now that's an incentive some parents could get behind.

[ssiguy]

Vancouver 's housing is bizarre and exceptionally unhealthy. Vancouver couldn't have done a worse job on the housing front if it tried. Vancouver is so grossly overvalued that people now think it's almost normal. Vancouverites like to say that "Toronto is expensive too" yet comparing Toronto and Vancouver's prices is laughable.

Let's put this into perspective. Currently in the City of Toronto which basically means SFH prior to 1980 {think Zone 1 & 2 on the Translink pass} there are over 800 SFH for sale under $1,000,000. In Van/Rich/NV/WV/Burn/NW, you would be VERY lucky to find a single SFH under 1.4. SFH are more expensive in God-forsaken Langley than they are in inner city Toronto {ie City of Vancouver}. SFH prices in Greater Vancouver would have to drop up to 40% just to come "down" to Toronto levels.

The stats that the REBGV like to use is that Vancouver is only about 20% more expensive than Toronto but that is exceedingly deceptive because it includes ALL types of housing and Vancouverites are far more likely to live in condos than Torontonians which greatly warps the numbers. This made even worse by the fact that SFHs in Toronto are uniformly larger than Vancouver because there is no such thing in Toronto {or anywhere in Ontario for that matter} as a house without a basement. I had never even heard of a crawl space until I moved to Vancouver.

When it comes to housing, Vancouver is truly in a league of it's own in the worse possible way.