Provincial Politics

[PoscStudent]

Quite the impressive predictions.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yeah I'm quite pleased with these predictions. Was a little low on vote share in Long Range and Central, but I really did not expect CPC strength to be that high.

This may very well be my magnum opus.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Expecting a writ drop within the coming weeks for the provincial election.

We've been floating in the dark for quite some time, with zero polling data available to even know what's likely to happen.

[J_Murphy]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Expecting a writ drop within the coming weeks for the provincial election.

We've been floating in the dark for quite some time, with zero polling data available to even know what's likely to happen.

Signs are starting to pop up in the City even though the election hasn't been called yet. So far I've seen signs for Kristina Ennis (PC) and John Whalen (Lib). Surprised it hasn't been called yet.

Also, nomination period for St. John's election closes today so I suspect we will see a full list of candidates in the coming days.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I'm expecting a writ drop on Sunday, though it can happen any time between tomorrow, up to Tuesday at the latest.

No social media watching for this one. I didn't find it overly helpful during the last provincial campaign, plus it is a lot more time consuming to have to scroll through possibly over 100 profiles every couple of days.

Without any polling as well, we're basically going completely off of vibes for this one lol.

[PoscStudent]

Liberals will have a full slate of candidates as of today.

PCs still have a few no hope districts left to call nominations in.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Off to the races.

Seems like the kind of election where we end up with exactly what we had prior to the election, though I think the chances of the Liberals being bumped down to a minority are pretty decent.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Off to the races.

Seems like the kind of election where we end up with exactly what we had prior to the election, though I think the chances of the Liberals being bumped down to a minority are pretty decent.

Based on the federal results and the retirement of incumbents, I’m expecting a few PC pickups in central and western.

With that said, I am thinking the Liberals are better organized and that could be crucial in actually winning seats.

[Marty_Mcfly]

My gut tells me:

- PCs take a couple of the open districts in western NL and Labrador. Places like Humber-Gros Morne, St. George's, Lab West

- PCs could maybe gain in central, but they're running out of targets. Maybe they pick up Gander, but Gander feels like it should be more a Liberal seat than anything else. Lewisporte would be a seat I'd feel like they'd have a good shot at, but Bennett is well liked and running there again.

- Liberals will likely hold on the Avalon, and maybe keep growing in the suburbs. Looking at Conception Bay South specifically.

It sort of feels like we're on a path to a Liberal minority.

[jjavman]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hogan-promises-hst-electricity-1.7637546

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

My gut tells me:

- PCs take a couple of the open districts in western NL and Labrador. Places like Humber-Gros Morne, St. George's, Lab West

- PCs could maybe gain in central, but they're running out of targets. Maybe they pick up Gander, but Gander feels like it should be more a Liberal seat than anything else. Lewisporte would be a seat I'd feel like they'd have a good shot at, but Bennett is well liked and running there again.

- Liberals will likely hold on the Avalon, and maybe keep growing in the suburbs. Looking at Conception Bay South specifically.

It sort of feels like we're on a path to a Liberal minority.

Agreed. I think the provincial results could be similar to what we saw federally.

Overall, I think the Liberals probably attracted better candidates and will have more money and maybe a better organization. That’ll be a big benefit if the races are tighter.

Neither Hogan or Wakeham are likely to resonate with voters to cause a groundswell of support for their parties.

[rthomasd]

Alison Coffin running in two districts is an interesting spin. Does she expect to get two
member salaries? Strange that the election regs allow this. I hope she gets someone to setup
her media video appearances, her CBC interview was hideous and looked like she
had a 100 watt bulb 3 inches from her face.

[PoscStudent]

Not surprisingly, given the two leading candidates for premier, it has been a pretty boring campaign and we are half way through it.

Still no polling but I saw that CBC/NTV/VOCM have announced a leaders debate for October 8. Probably a bit late in the campaign to make any difference.

[Marty_Mcfly]

In lieu of there being any polling numbers to digest, I asked fellow members of The Numbers Discord community to predict the winner of each district. This was their result:

https://www.newfoundlandvotes.com/discord-2025-nl-prediction.html

[J_Murphy]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

In lieu of there being any polling numbers to digest, I asked fellow members of The Numbers Discord community to predict the winner of each district. This was their result:

https://www.newfoundlandvotes.com/discord-2025-nl-prediction.html

New opinion poll just released yesterday: https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-liberal...ad-heading-into-the-provincial-election/

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yeah, while the data is nice to put into the model to actually see some numbers change for the first time in a year, Narrative Research is just about the last polling agency I'd trust to be right.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Non-public poll performed by MQO Research, commissioned by an un-named sponsor. Decided and leaning voters:

Field dates October 4th to 7th, sample size: n=541

LIB: 43%
PC: 40%
NDP: 13%
Other: 4%

Some regional details given. Liberals hold a decent lead in St. John's CMA, PC's lead elsewhere.

Sounds like we should likewise get a public release from Cardinal Research this weekend, along with possibly Mainstreet in a few days, and the regular last-minute Forum Research poll.

[J_Murphy]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Non-public poll performed by MQO Research, commissioned by an un-named sponsor. Decided and leaning voters:

Field dates October 4th to 7th, sample size: n=541

LIB: 43%
PC: 40%
NDP: 13%
Other: 4%

Some regional details given. Liberals hold a decent lead in St. John's CMA, PC's lead elsewhere.

Sounds like we should likewise get a public release from Cardinal Research this weekend, along with possibly Mainstreet in a few days, and the regular last-minute Forum Research poll.

Here are all polls completed over last little while: https://338canada.com/nl/

[Marty_Mcfly]

My Final Gut Prediction:

LIB: 45.8% (22 seats)
PC: 42.4% (15 seats)
NDP: 8.3% (1 seat)
OTH: 3.5% (2 seats)

Map and regional breakdown: https://www.newfoundlandvotes.com/gut-prediction-provincial-election-election-day.html

[Architype]

PC 20
Lib 16
Ind 02
NDP 02

A tight race, but this can change at any moment.

I was listening to the Numbers podcast earlier, and they said if the Liberals don't win NL, they have no faith anymore in polling. But, the truth is, not many polls were done for this election. A PC vote in NL can still be seen essentially as an anti-confederate vote, but this time it's the rural areas.