PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread X

[domodeez]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

It's a dangerous misattribution to blame the lack of new construction on the phase out of the abatement. Although phasing out the abatement certainly doesn't help, it's my firm belief that the abatement increases land values more than anything else (we've all seen developers get zoning changes on pie in the sky proposals then flip the land for significant profit). If anything, it will just bring down land values and the numbers will pencil out in the same way.

Theoretically true. But in practice / reality, we’re dealing with flawed and emotional people. A prospective seller is generally not going to accept that their land is suddenly worth less now than it was before the 10-year abatement tapered out. So you end up with a gap between what buyers believe the land is now worth and what the sellers *still* believe the land is worth, despite evidence to the contrary. Over time, this delta closes and more deals can move forward, but in that intervening years construction slows because of that basic disagreement. Again, doesn’t negate your point. Over a long enough timeline you are correct. Just that there is some nuance.

[PHLtoNYC]

Man if there was ever a better chance to knock down and replace a highly visible crappy building.

Loan extension buys time for 1515 Market as Temple's departure looms
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2025/09/29/1515-market-loan-extension-cmbs.html

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

Man if there was ever a better chance to knock down and replace a highly visible crappy building.

Loan extension buys time for 1515 Market as Temple's departure looms
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2025/09/29/1515-market-loan-extension-cmbs.html

The broader issue between this and Centre Square is that there's just NO business activity in Center City. No one is moving in, businesses aren't re-upping or they're significantly downsizing. It's brutal. Mayor/City Council needs to introduce serious pro-business, regionally eye opening legislation - relocation tax breaks, Wage Tax tax breaks, KOZ level incentives - to stop this downturn. I mean, it's a real issue. We're becoming New Orleans.

[Skintreesnail]

I agree that the city needs to take the next few years really seriously and do whatever they can to counteract as much of what gets thrown at us as possible. it's going to be really rough. eds and meds, which always provided stability in past downturns, are obviously going to have their own problems with this administration. tariffs are probably making it unsustainable for a lot of restaurants and small businesses to remain open. That could lead to a lot of issues with unemployment. They're gutting federal jobs , which has already impacted us but probably going to get worse. In both the office leases in cc and jobs. At some point they might try and push crypto as a replacement for fiat. unleashing ice on people, threatening to use cities as training grounds, attacking the free press and networks they deem as liberal (comcast) doesn't help either. Pair all the political stuff with genai and its potential impact on the workplace and it could get much worse. Not to mention the scanner darkly bs that Ellison wants to pull, or the fact social media is being taken over and used as a bot-driven propaganda machine.

Mods, feel free to remove if too political, my intention is just that I feel there's a rough road ahead and it saddens me to think Philadelphia might be hurt after making such great strides and coming out of the pandemic in decent shape. We just can't seem to catch a break.

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by Londonee

The broader issue between this and Centre Square is that there's just NO business activity in Center City. No one is moving in, businesses aren't re-upping or they're significantly downsizing. It's brutal. Mayor/City Council needs to introduce serious pro-business, regionally eye opening legislation - relocation tax breaks, Wage Tax tax breaks, KOZ level incentives - to stop this downturn. I mean, it's a real issue. We're becoming New Orleans.

Agree that the broader issue of limited business activity is concerning (especially given the shaky climate around life sciences and higher ed, though this trend extends beyond Philadelphia). I forget the timeline, but wage and BIRT tax relief may be happening, just not for a few years? And in 2025, what type of businesses should the city court (via tax incentives)? I guess more investment in the startup scene, tech, and financial institutions?

To the New Orleans part, I disagree. New Orleans (city and metro) economy is small potatoes, its prominence is limited to unique culture only. Philadelphia (city) needs to step it up, but the economy is still strong and SEPA (suburbs) have a massive economy, which while not city proper, is still good for the overall health of the region.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Skintreesnail

Pair all the political stuff with genai and its potential impact on the workplace and it could get much worse. Not to mention the scanner darkly bs that Ellison wants to pull, or the fact social media is being taken over and used as a bot-driven propaganda machine.

Mods, feel free to remove if too political, my intention is just that I feel there's a rough road ahead and it saddens me to think Philadelphia might be hurt after making such great strides and coming out of the pandemic in decent shape. We just can't seem to catch a break.

I think the nation's current political atmosphere is the obvious elephant in the room, and it's now impossible to ignore and try to separate from economic trends happening today.

Hyper-politicization has now taken over everything from immigration, to student visas, to NIH grants, to healthcare coverage and the ability for major hospitals to be profitable. International visitation to the US is continuing on a downward trajectory. Blatant political retribution and disinvestment in cities that don't offer full-throated support for the Republican Party is now being openly proposed, including major infrastructure grants being canceled or withheld. And that doesn't even get into shortsighted tariff policy or an ideological takeover of the Fed.

All of these trends are 100% beginning to profoundly impact the broader meds/eds/innovation economy across the US, and it's infuriating to me that the business/academic/research community is barely pushing back or speaking out against any of these obviously incredibly damaging trends. This goes far beyond red vs. blue--it's flagrant disregard for the Constitution and is now veering into deliberate sabotage of America's large cities. And City Hall can't fight it alone.

Pardon my French, but people really need to wake the f**k up as to what is going on in this country and how much the American economy will crash if completely unchecked retributive, scorched Earth, hyper-partisan governance promoted from the White House daily continues for even one more year, perhaps irreparably.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

I think the nation's current political atmosphere is the obvious elephant in the room, and it's now impossible to ignore and try to separate from economic trends happening today.

Hyper-politicization has now taken over everything from immigration, to student visas, to NIH grants, to healthcare coverage and the ability for major hospitals to be profitable. International visitation to the US is continuing on a downward trajectory. Blatant political retribution and disinvestment in cities that don't offer full-throated support for the Republican Party is now being openly proposed, including major infrastructure grants being canceled or withheld. And that doesn't even get into shortsighted tariff policy or an ideological takeover of the Fed.

All of these trends are 100% beginning to profoundly impact the broader meds/eds/innovation economy across the US, and it's infuriating to me that the business/academic/research community is barely pushing back or speaking out against any of these obviously incredibly damaging trends. This goes far beyond red vs. blue--it's flagrant disregard for the Constitution and is now veering into deliberate sabotage of America's large cities. And City Hall can't fight it alone.

Pardon my French, but people really need to wake the f**k up as to what is going on in this country and how much the American economy will crash if completely unchecked retributive, scorched Earth, hyper-partisan governance promoted from the White House daily continues for even one more year, perhaps irreparably.

Screed aside, sociopolitical tensions fail to explain why some cities are thriving (ex: building high rises) and others are not.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Dale

Screed aside, sociopolitical tensions fail to explain why some cities are thriving (ex: building high rises) and others are not.

Which cities are still building high rises?

[el don]

Originally Posted by Dale

Screed aside, sociopolitical tensions fail to explain why some cities are thriving (ex: building high rises) and others are not.

I was thinking the same thing. Also, AI will cause was more job loss than anything that was mentioned.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by el don

I was thinking the same thing. Also, AI will cause was more job loss than anything that was mentioned.

Again, which cities are still building high rises. Be specific and we can attribute the reasons.

This is just more amorphous Negadelphian bs.

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Again, which cities are still building high rises. Be specific and we can attribute the reasons.

This is just more amorphous Negadelphian bs.

And New York City and Miami don't count (I assume that user will mention them along with Austin and Nashville).

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

And New York City and Miami don't count (I assume that user will mention them along with Austin and Nashville).

I agree. Being an international center for money laundering via real estate is not an economic development strategy. So I'm patiently waiting to hear what cities are building high rises from their perspective.

[skyhigh07]

Philly is doing fine. I just read through the 2025 CCD report and there’s a lot of things in it to be encouraged by. The city and CC in particular has grown post pandemic.

I think we all knew during the pandemic that the development pipeline was starting to dry up. I’m glad some of the projects got through. New development is happening but it’s just not as visible as ground up development. A half a dozen office towers are currently being converted to residential/mixed use. Not to mention all of the former UArts real estate of which most are starting to be repurposed. So I’m guessing it’ll take some time before we start seeing a surge of brand new high rises again.

https://centercityphila.org/research-reports/state-of-center-city

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Dale

Screed aside

Not intended as a "screed," although my strong feelings on this topic clearly come out. The fact remains that we have federal policies and actions being implemented right now that are deliberately intended to hinder America's largest urban centers, and that's never occurred in US history. And until that abject nonsense stops, they will increasingly be a major headwind.

Originally Posted by Dale

sociopolitical tensions fail to explain why some cities are thriving (ex: building high rises) and others are not.

Very few cities are actually "thriving" right now economically.

I'll grant you that your location of Charlotte is one of the best examples. But with job growth always being a primary indicator, again I point to the metro area metric, here, from BLS.

Even the TX and FL fast-growth stalwarts like Miami, Dallas and Houston are now sub-1% annual growth (all below Philly, mind you). Nearly every large metro has slowed in growth dramatically from just 2 years ago.

Whatever economic growth we're seeing is very heavily imbalanced now. It's all going very disproportionately to the largest tech companies. The US is essentially only being propped up by AI investment at the moment, and that is entirely designed to increase productivity (i.e., remove jobs).

The future is incredibly murky all around, and we're only seeing the beginning of these trends.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

Not intended as a "screed," although my strong feelings on this topic clearly come out. The fact remains that we have federal policies and actions being implemented right now that are deliberately intended to hinder America's largest urban centers, and that's never occurred in US history. And until that abject nonsense stops, they will increasingly be a major headwind.



Very few cities are actually "thriving" right now economically.

I'll grant you that your location of Charlotte is one of the best examples. But with job growth always being a primary indicator, again I point to the metro area metric, here, from BLS.

Even the TX and FL fast-growth stalwarts like Miami, Dallas and Houston are now sub-1% annual growth (all below Philly, mind you). Nearly every large metro has slowed in growth dramatically from just 2 years ago.

Whatever economic growth we're seeing is very heavily imbalanced now. It's all going very disproportionately to the largest tech companies. The US is essentially only being propped up by AI investment at the moment, and that is entirely designed to increase productivity (i.e., remove jobs).

The future is incredibly murky all around, and we're only seeing the beginning of these trends.

This dust-up began with me boosting Philly as a city not doing badly and which has built its fair share of high rises in recent years.

By “thriving” I mean a continuing production of at least a modest number of high rises in their CBDs.

Aside from NYC, Miami, Austin and Nashville, no US cities have been throwing up an appreciable number of high rises. Thus, recent developments like tariffs are moot as a contributing factor.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Dale

Aside from NYC, Miami, Austin and Nashville, no US cities have been throwing up an appreciable number of high rises. Thus, recent developments like tariffs are moot as a contributing factor.

Yes, in terms of the past few years, agreed and understood. But insofar as we're predicting intermediate-to-long-term trends, something like tariffs will absolutely continue to insert itself as a factor into new development projects of all kinds. It can't be avoided.

Things were already difficult to "pencil" in the past 2 years. Combined with potentially falling rents in an increasingly stagnant economy, this new economic trade paradigm is just going to create that much more of a barrier.

[R5Ryder]

Nice to see the inner-part of CC1 fully lit red. Weren't they re-doing the lighting on CTC so that the lantern (and the strip leading up to it) could change color? Or is that not until next year.

[thoughtcriminal]

Originally Posted by R5Ryder

Nice to see the inner-part of CC1 fully lit red.

it didn't help...

[Radio5]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

Looks like we can reopen the Piazza thread!

Post Brothers secures $170M loan for expansion of Northern Liberties apartment project
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...cx_testVariant=cx_8&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s

The second phase is set to include 431 units across two buildings, an eight-story building and a 16-story building and will add to the existing 695 units, bringing the Piazza Alta to a total of 1,126 apartments. The addition will be built on top of existing podiums and is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

Even with Northern Liberties experiencing a wave of development and increasing competition, the two-year-old Piazza Alta was 97% leased in June.

Post Brothers has targeted high-income earners who would likely be in the pool of prospective homebuyers. With home supply tightening and rising prices over the last few years, Post Brothers has observed high-income earners delay home purchases and rent longer.

Post Brothers believes now is the right time to move forward with the next phase of Piazza Alta given that new multifamily development has slowed significantly in Philadelphia.

"There is still some hangover of supply delivered in the last two years, but new deliveries are clearly falling off a cliff as absorption continues strongly," Michael and Matthew Pestronk said. "This project will clearly be delivered into an exceptionally strong market."

Im so confused how they're going to build that 3rd tower. Will that not disrupt the apartments already there? Looks like it's building on top of it.

[PHL10]

Originally Posted by thoughtcriminal

it didn't help...