Originally Posted by zahav
Over the long weekend, I decided to do one of my (very time consuming) flight schedule deep dives, this time for Westjet's winter schedule. I hadn't done a W25/26 spreadsheet yet (typical lazy summer for me and I didn't have the focus for such an endeavour lol). But I was excited to do it, despite the time dedication anxiety, because it would be my first schedule following Sunwing intergration. I figured it would be a notable change for YYZ and YUL due to WG's large operations there. Conversely, I knew it would mean smaller changes at places like YVR, YEG, and YWG, because WG was not as big there. So I was curious to see what the numbers would look like like once WS actually updated schedules. Here are the raw stats and some takeaways:
-consistent with current economic and geopolitical events, we see domestic pretty flat, transborder very weak, and international gains
-In the least shocking statement ever, the capacity of the newly combined WS/WG carrier has entirely benefitted sun destinations, with most getting a boost
-the numbers to CUN (Cancun) are especially wild. I figured CUN was likely both WG and WS’s most important sun route pre-merger. So logically, post-merger it would make gains all around. Look at these numbers:
-YYZ to CUN - 36x weekly
-YVR to CUN – 18x weekly
-YEG to CUN – 17x weekly
-YUL to CUN – 13x weekly
I believe this growth far exceeds the WG absorption factor, it is a big shift. For example, in winter 2024, YVR-CUN was 9x weekly. Now it’s 18x weekly, exactly double I don’t have the stats, but I really don’t think WG was even close to 9x weekly YVR-CUN, so this increase was way more than just the merger. Mexico capacity is going up so fast as it is carrying the burden of absorbing so many pax who abandoned US travel and changed to Mexico. That is likely not permanent, and competition from other places is high, so this could settle down a bit. But for now, it’s a stampede to Mexico.
-YVR retains title of busiest base (outside of YYC) by # of flights. From Dec. ’24 to ’25, It grew from 432 weekly flights to 448 (2024 figures do not include WG flights, just WS mainline and Encore). But the growth was entirely thanks to Encore, growing from 95 to 146. Mainline shrunk from 337 to 302, resulting in approx. seat capacity going from 60,302 to 58,787 y/y. Many factors went into this:
1. A proportionally larger exposure to transborder destinations, which as we know are threatened by the US-CAN trade war and its fallout.
2. YVR traffic is easy to funnel through YYC especially during economic challenges, it makes sense for WS to be on the safe side and build up YYC and not risk too many point to point offerings (this obviously affects YEG and other western airports too). Compared to YYZ especially, which is effectively unaffected by YYC offerings (ie. WS knows it couldn’t capture YYZ to Mexico/Caribbean traffic by routing thru YYC. It has to either add YYZ service directly, or forfeit the traffic altogether). But for YVR, YYJ, YEG etc, it is a reasonable option thru YYC, and will always be a ceiling to more growth)
3. WG was far less active in Western Canada than in YYZ or YUL, and moreso in recent years. So when WG was going to integrate, it made sense there would be less automatic gains for YVR and YEG. WS wouldn’t integrate WG and use all of that capacity on airports that didn’t have it or need it before, they would keep it more or less where it was under WG, but not just under the WS banner
4. Nationally, of all main sectors (domestic, transborder, international sun, and international non-sun), sun flights seem to be the strongest performer and biggest hope for this winter. And YVR has always been the least dependent on international sun destinations, so understandable we’d see more conservative growth regardless of WG integration
This isn’t me being negative or pity party that WS is ignoring us, not at all. Just reality of the current circumstances, which can change anytime. Our transborder vulnerability now was our strength before, you take the wins and losses and hope it evens long term. It’s just the way the cookie crumbles. WS is still very strong here, especially considering the competition AC puts up.
-not surprising, YYZ enjoyed a big jump in flights and seats for the first winter season post-merger. WS operated ~333 weekly flights in Dec. 2024, and that’s jumped up to ~386 in 2025. All flights operated by 737 mainline. But while total # of weekly flights is still behind YVR, total seats jumped past. Approx. weekly YYZ seats are ~1,700 more than YVR (60,583 vs. 58,787). Again, WG was all 737 so it’s reasonable that seat counts would jump following the integration. Encore still doesn’t operate from either YYZ or YUL, so it’s a non-factor. WS at YYZ has also reduced its exposure to the transborder sector, even before the current drama. So basically the strongest airline sector (sun, non-us) was the one YYZ had the biggest stake in, so the gains totally makes sense.
-YEG had decent flight gains from 2024 (326 vs. 308), and like YVR, almost entirely Encore. But unlinke YVR, their mainline ops stayed flat, no growth or loss. So there was a minor seat gain overall, but like YVR it was muted because WG integration didn’t make a big impact. YYC’s proximity will continue to be a barrier to growth in YEG, I fear. I wish it were different and hope it is, but the fortress growth in YYC will basically stifle options for all other WS airports from MB to BC, it’s just a reality.
-Special mention to YUL, which was so insignificant in WS ops pre-merger, it was painful to even measure it. Like 27 flights per week, and only 3 domestic destinations (no international, no transborder at all). Now thanks to WG, they are at 61 weekly flights, not bad at all. WS has never succeeded in QB, this WG takeover was really their only chance at making an inroad. But we can’t forget there is huge competition from AC and even more TS, both based in YUL and with really extensive networks. Even with the WS+WG merger, they’re still far behind. It would kind of be funny if WS gets walloped by TS and AC and has to shrink their sun offerings even, then they’d really be hopeless at YUL lol. I wonder if there will be more animosity between TS and WS now that they absorbed WG and all of a sudden became a presence. I believe WS and TS still have a codeshare partnership though, it was signed before the WG takeover. And it really seemed to be more about TS transatlantic flights, and piggy backing on WS for western Canada flights since TS completely abandoned every route. But WS’s acquisition and subsequent sun growth has squared it right off with TS in their biggest markets. There can’t be much goodwill from TS towards WS, even if never made public.
If the world hasn’t ended by 2026, it will be interesting to see summer scheds for the combined WG/WS entity. Since WG was always wayyyy busier in the winter, the summer scheds probably won’t be as impacted, but who knows. It’s hard to imagine more than a month or two ahead nowadays lol
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. I know the posts are too long, I apologize every time, there's just so much to unpack, it's so hard to condense such a massive update into nothing. I'm glad some of you get something out of it, I know there's some cranky former who just have snarky comments to make. It really takes a lot of time to compile, but I love doing it haha, so hard to explain to non-AV geeks.
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