General Updates and News

[Musicman Halifax]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't mean to be disrespectful but if you took Colin's updates on here at face value you'd conclude the real estate market has been years of overarching doom and gloom. Yet it's been years and years of building boom basically. I am sure there will be a downturn at some point, but eventually if you predict the same cyclical thing over and over all you have is a "stopped clock is right twice a day" effect.

And we have to remember most of what is being built isn’t condos. Most are rental units, which is a completely different deal altogether. We haven’t built condos to any great number in years.

[Keith P.]

Yes, not to be too rough on Colin, but the Toronto condo market has been in turmoil for a very long time. But as the saying goes, “We’re not Toronto!!!”

[Colin May]

The stalling real estate market in Vancouver is the same as the Toronto situation. It does not matter if it is rental or purchase, the market has changed and the rest of Canada is not immune from the general economic situation. The reduction in the numbers of immigrants and refugees affects the whole country and there is no sign that will change.
So here is the Globe from July 15 2025 :
" Metro Vancouver’s real estate market continues to hurt as buyers walk away from presale purchases, and lenders increasingly foreclose on a wider variety of properties.

“There’s more, and they are getting bigger,” said Hart Buck, Colliers’ senior vice-president, referring to the foreclosures.

“I’d say it’s a gradual acceleration of the number of files that we are seeing,” added associate vice-president Jennifer Darling. At the start of this market cycle, it was mostly vacant residential development land that was subject to receivership or foreclosure processes, but that has expanded to industrial, retail and office buildings, she said.

Last June, they had three active foreclosure listings. Today, they have 15 to 20 files, valued at $5-million to $105-million.

And buyers are choosing to walk away from presale purchases that have dropped in value, said Mr. Buck. Developers are doing their best to keep their names out of the headlines, which means they are reluctant to sue when a presale buyer of a luxury condo walks away from their deposit. "
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est...e-purchases-in-vancouvers-hurting-condo/

[someone123]

There are a lot of differences between the markets. Aside from the apartment mix, there were a lot of presales in Tor/Van and now some of those are underwater. The price levels and recent growth in prices are also much much higher in those markets.

It is true that lower non-permanent resident flows will have a downward impact. However, it's also the case that temporary outflows are suppressing net population growth numbers right now. There is still a growth target for permanent residents of ~1% of total population and the reasons why some move to Halifax have not changed. I think Halifax has become a much more appealing city for growth in Canada due to development there, the rise of remote work, improved reputation, and growing immigrant communities.

[Colin May]

"More than 10,000 federal public service jobs were lost last year alone — many of them PSAC members — with no plans to maintain the services those workers provided. Thousands more cuts have already been announced — including at the Canada Revenue Agency and Employment and Social Development Canada — and nearly 2,000 PSAC members have already been given notice their jobs are at risk through workforce adjustment. "

" Here’s what we heard:

Departments must submit their spending plans by August 28, with no final decisions expected until then.
The proposed cuts will be phased in: 7.5% for the 2026–27 fiscal year, up to 2.5% in the second year, and up to 5% in 2028–29 for a total of 15% over three years.
These spending reductions are a continuation of the previous government’s Refocusing Government Spending initiative announced last November but halted when Parliament was prorogued. "
source : https://psacunion.ca/psac-raises-alarm-carney-government-announces July 8 2025

Federal job reductions and spending cuts :
" Federal cabinet ministers are being asked to find “ambitious” internal savings this summer ahead of the 2025 budget as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government decides how it will pay for the billions of dollars in new spending that it recently announced.

Specifically, ministers must find ways to reduce program spending by 7.5 per cent in the fiscal year that begins April 1, 2026, followed by 10 per cent in savings the next year and 15 per cent in the 2028-29 fiscal year......The officials did not provide more detail as to what categories will be the focus of the spending review. The Throne Speech said day-to-day costs have been growing by 9 per cent every year and the government would introduce measures to bring that growth below 2 per cent. ..........David Macdonald, chief economist for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said the targets in the letter are in line with his own estimates that parts of government would face deep cuts. His estimates were released in a report last week based on the government’s public comments to date.

In an interview, he said that the spending review would likely exempt some large categories, such as defence, meaning deeper cuts to other areas.

“The point here is that these are massive cuts, and they would definitely be on par with some of the largest cuts we’ve seen in a generation,” he said. They could be bigger than previous cost-cutting exercises by prime minister Stephen Harper and similar to cuts under prime minister Jean Chrétien, he said
source : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-cabinet-ministers-letters-spending/
Not difficult to think that all of Nova Scotia will find it difficult to deal with the economic reality of what was long postponed by Justin Trudeau. Going through the PVSC data and the listings on Viewpoint provides valuable insight into what is happening in HRM residential real estate and in several other municipalities.

[Musicman Halifax]

Originally Posted by Colin May

The stalling real estate market in Vancouver is the same as the Toronto situation. It does not matter if it is rental or purchase, the market has changed and the rest of Canada is not immune from the general economic situation. The reduction in the numbers of immigrants and refugees affects the whole country and there is no sign that will change.
So here is the Globe from July 15 2025 :
" Metro Vancouver’s real estate market continues to hurt as buyers walk away from presale purchases, and lenders increasingly foreclose on a wider variety of properties.

“There’s more, and they are getting bigger,” said Hart Buck, Colliers’ senior vice-president, referring to the foreclosures.

“I’d say it’s a gradual acceleration of the number of files that we are seeing,” added associate vice-president Jennifer Darling. At the start of this market cycle, it was mostly vacant residential development land that was subject to receivership or foreclosure processes, but that has expanded to industrial, retail and office buildings, she said.

Last June, they had three active foreclosure listings. Today, they have 15 to 20 files, valued at $5-million to $105-million.

And buyers are choosing to walk away from presale purchases that have dropped in value, said Mr. Buck. Developers are doing their best to keep their names out of the headlines, which means they are reluctant to sue when a presale buyer of a luxury condo walks away from their deposit. "
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est...e-purchases-in-vancouvers-hurting-condo/

Huge difference from condos to rentals. The vacancy rate in Toronto has gone up while in Halifax it has barely budged.
There is a reason why holes are still being dug in Halifax.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Musicman Halifax

Huge difference from condos to rentals. The vacancy rate in Toronto has gone up while in Halifax it has barely budged.
There is a reason why holes are still being dug in Halifax.

I don't think Halifax even has much of a speculative condo presale market.

For those not familiar with it, Vancouver and Toronto had a lot of "investors" who would buy condos to flip them for a profit, sometimes renting them out as a side-effect of this, sometimes leaving them empty. Because the market prices are no longer going up so quickly, the flipping doesn't work anymore, and because they were investors there weren't necessarily residents lined up for these units. In the past there was a debate about "foreign buyers" and a lot of these buildings were not even marketed in English (they would say there are no foreign buyers, because the buyers got PR status, and the fact that a building in Vancouver is sold out in Hong Kong before it goes on the market in Van does not matter).

I think it's also a bit misleading in that a lot of these are shoebox condos that are awful places to live (400 square foot with minimal light and poor layout). This happened because they were bought to be flipped without anybody visiting them and deciding they would want to live there. There isn't a surplus of livable condos in Toronto or Vancouver and housing is not affordable for couples or families. It is a disaster IMO and was horrifically mismanaged. We didn't even really get that much housing out of our housing bubble. Consequently, Halifax is still likely to offer appealing and affordable housing options relative to Tor/Van.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Colin May

“The point here is that these are massive cuts, and they would definitely be on par with some of the largest cuts we’ve seen in a generation,” he said. They could be bigger than previous cost-cutting exercises by prime minister Stephen Harper and similar to cuts under prime minister Jean Chrétien, he said
source : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-cabinet-ministers-letters-spending/
Not difficult to think that all of Nova Scotia will find it difficult to deal with the economic reality of what was long postponed by Justin Trudeau. Going through the PVSC data and the listings on Viewpoint provides valuable insight into what is happening in HRM residential real estate and in several other municipalities.

Well, the bloat within the federal public service was easy to pin on JT himself. He encouraged that for reasons I could never get a handle on. Few citizens demanded a bigger federal bureaucracy. The cuts can only be a good thing long-term for our fiscal health because, contrary to JT’s view, the federal budget will not balance itself.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Well, the bloat within the federal public service was easy to pin on JT himself. He encouraged that for reasons I could never get a handle on. Few citizens demanded a bigger federal bureaucracy. The cuts can only be a good thing long-term for our fiscal health because, contrary to JT’s view, the federal budget will not balance itself.

This has to be put in context. If they hire 30% too many people for years, then there's nothing shocking about large cuts after; that's just the expected long-term outcome. It was obviously unsustainable and it's unclear what value these new workers are providing. It's hard to tell what part of the federal government works better now or what useful new services we receive (ArriveCan? Does it still exist?).

Civil service itself aside the Liberal government allowed dubious temporary immigration of fake students with minimal skills and was allergic to productive economic output like new mines or pipelines, so Canada's productivity has been flat. There's little economic base with which to grow government services.

Economically I think 2015-2024 was more or less another lost decade for Canada and JT's government didn't accomplish much.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Colin May

"More than 10,000 federal public service jobs were lost last year alone — many of them PSAC members — with no plans to maintain the services those workers provided. Thousands more cuts have already been announced — including at the Canada Revenue Agency and Employment and Social Development Canada — and nearly 2,000 PSAC members have already been given notice their jobs are at risk through workforce adjustment. "

" Here’s what we heard:

Departments must submit their spending plans by August 28, with no final decisions expected until then.
The proposed cuts will be phased in: 7.5% for the 2026–27 fiscal year, up to 2.5% in the second year, and up to 5% in 2028–29 for a total of 15% over three years.
These spending reductions are a continuation of the previous government’s Refocusing Government Spending initiative announced last November but halted when Parliament was prorogued. "
source : https://psacunion.ca/psac-raises-alarm-carney-government-announces July 8 2025

Federal job reductions and spending cuts :
" Federal cabinet ministers are being asked to find “ambitious” internal savings this summer ahead of the 2025 budget as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government decides how it will pay for the billions of dollars in new spending that it recently announced.

Specifically, ministers must find ways to reduce program spending by 7.5 per cent in the fiscal year that begins April 1, 2026, followed by 10 per cent in savings the next year and 15 per cent in the 2028-29 fiscal year......The officials did not provide more detail as to what categories will be the focus of the spending review. The Throne Speech said day-to-day costs have been growing by 9 per cent every year and the government would introduce measures to bring that growth below 2 per cent. ..........David Macdonald, chief economist for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said the targets in the letter are in line with his own estimates that parts of government would face deep cuts. His estimates were released in a report last week based on the government’s public comments to date.

In an interview, he said that the spending review would likely exempt some large categories, such as defence, meaning deeper cuts to other areas.

“The point here is that these are massive cuts, and they would definitely be on par with some of the largest cuts we’ve seen in a generation,” he said. They could be bigger than previous cost-cutting exercises by prime minister Stephen Harper and similar to cuts under prime minister Jean Chrétien, he said
source : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-cabinet-ministers-letters-spending/
Not difficult to think that all of Nova Scotia will find it difficult to deal with the economic reality of what was long postponed by Justin Trudeau. Going through the PVSC data and the listings on Viewpoint provides valuable insight into what is happening in HRM residential real estate and in several other municipalities.

PSAC should be very worried with what Minister Solomon comes up with as AI minister. Carney and company have a chance to leap decades ahead with delivery of Government services by using AI and being ruthless with old ways of doing things and former assumptions.

Meanwhile the St Jean CAF Recruit intake center has had overflowing Training Companies since March 2024. Between 128-145 new bodies per week. The Forces have BMQ'd (trained) more folks than actually needed for the first time in over ten years. It will take more time but THAT part of Federal Workforce is increasing. Again, very good for N.S.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Musicman Halifax

Huge difference from condos to rentals. The vacancy rate in Toronto has gone up while in Halifax it has barely budged.
There is a reason why holes are still being dug in Halifax.

As of the most recent CMHC numbers, housing starts in Halifax from Jan-Jun 2025 are down slightly compared to the same period last year. But last year was a record, and on a per capita basis, starts in the Halifax CMA are around double that of the Toronto CMA. So possibly there’s been something of a slowdown here, but because of the financial model of presale condos, it’s been much more dramatic in the GTA.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Question. How has Point Pleasant Park recovered since hurrican Juan? Tree growth wise? 21 years of growth is pretty decent.

[MonctonDowntown]

The new trees are not as thick and mature as many of the trees that fell, but the sheer number of smaller trees ensures that each of the different trails is pretty isolated.

[someone123]

I made this map of 30+ towers in Halifax, in part because I couldn't keep track of the different projects and I was curious about how many there are and where they are. Not sure if I'm missing anything.

The satellite photo is the latest Google Earth imagery from July 2025.

[kzt79]

Originally Posted by someone123

This has to be put in context. If they hire 30% too many people for years, then there's nothing shocking about large cuts after; that's just the expected long-term outcome. It was obviously unsustainable and it's unclear what value these new workers are providing. It's hard to tell what part of the federal government works better now or what useful new services we receive (ArriveCan? Does it still exist?).

Civil service itself aside the Liberal government allowed dubious temporary immigration of fake students with minimal skills and was allergic to productive economic output like new mines or pipelines, so Canada's productivity has been flat. There's little economic base with which to grow government services.

Economically I think 2015-2024 was more or less another lost decade for Canada and JT's government didn't accomplish much.

Canada's productivity has been poor for decades, and esp brutal the past 10 years. We have recently seen entire industries post NEGATIVE productivity "growth." I don't know how that is even possible in a digital age. We have far too much of our economy tied up in nonproductive assets (RE) while actively working against most opportunities for genuine growth. The contrast in real disposable income vs the US and increasingly the rest of the developed world is stark and growing. It's hard to believe that not many decades ago we had the richest middle class in the world; Canada is now a poor "rich country" and seemingly trying to leave the club entirely.

I can only hope that someone with a brain grabs wakes up and grabs the wheel soon. All the arguments about government spending, resource allocation, taxation etc become meaningless when the "pie" shrinks to nothing.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by kzt79

I can only hope that someone with a brain grabs wakes up and grabs the wheel soon. All the arguments about government spending, resource allocation, taxation etc become meaningless when the "pie" shrinks to nothing.

I think it will shift because of voting demographics. I don't think anybody will meaningfully "fix" it or do something for the greater good while a large voting bloc still sees real estate as a retirement plan.

To be honest I also think that a lot of younger people will just be kind of screwed as they get older, unless there's some unforeseeable rising tide of technology or something else that lifts all boats. Around here the average 30-40 year old now is really struggling compared to what you'd have expected in the 80's or 90's. The median today would have been seen as poor back then. The difference with say 2015 is very instructive as people still had things like smartphones but rent or housing was much cheaper and real wages were about on par or maybe even higher. I don't really believe the official inflation figures; I think the basket of goods and quality levels shift around and if we looked at a consistent baseline inflation would be 1.5-2x the official number.

[kzt79]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think it will shift because of voting demographics. I don't think anybody will meaningfully "fix" it or do something for the greater good while a large voting bloc still sees real estate as a retirement plan.

To be honest I also think that a lot of younger people will just be kind of screwed as they get older, unless there's some unforeseeable rising tide of technology or something else that lifts all boats. Around here the average 30-40 year old now is really struggling compared to what you'd have expected in the 80's or 90's. The median today would have been seen as poor back then. The difference with say 2015 is very instructive as people still had things like smartphones but rent or housing was much cheaper and real wages were about on par or maybe even higher. I don't really believe the official inflation figures; I think the basket of goods and quality levels shift around and if we looked at a consistent baseline inflation would be 1.5-2x the official number.

It's shocking and sad to see the very real decline in quality of life in our country.

I grew up in the 80's-90's in a semi-rural area. Both my parents worked normal jobs; my mother took significant time off to raise us. We had an average house then moved into a larger and nicer but not opulent one with a big yard on water. We had one and then 2 new-ish nice but not luxury cars. Vacations were usually road trips to visit family in NB. While certainly not poor, this was hardly considered any sort of extravagant lifestyle and things were similar for most of my friends and classmates.

To achieve that quality of life today would require household income well above 200K. I have personally done well (due to hard work, choices, and yes a good deal of luck) but if I were starting out today I have no doubt things would be very different.

Just look at the trend in real, after-tax disposable income. It's absolutely brutal and the worst part is this is entirely self-inflicted. Canada SHOULD be one of the richest countries in the world, including our middle class. We vote for/choose/accept leaders who have done this - again and again. You're absolutely right - what was "poor" is now middle class. We see CRA cracking down on things like tips for waitstaff, going after small businesses, and imposing crushing taxes on hard working professionals meanwhile the (very few) truly wealthy remain untouchable.

I am grateful every day for the life I have, and realize it almost certainly wouldn't be possible were I born even 10 years later.

[markbeaver]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

Building permits submitted this week for;

2110 Robie Street (@ Williams) - 9 Floors - 34 Units

2138 Robie Street (Williams-Compton Block) - 9 Floors - 16 Units

3050 Gottingen Street (Russell-Sullivan Block) - 7 Floors - 26 Units

The building next door to 3050 Gottingen Street (5515 Russell Street) is being gutted this week. Interesting as it underwent a substantial gut and renovation in 2021 - one wonders if the property is being incorporated into the 7 floor development next door. Hmmm.

[Dmajackson]

Originally Posted by markbeaver

The building next door to 3050 Gottingen Street (5515 Russell Street) is being gutted this week. Interesting as it underwent a substantial gut and renovation in 2021 - one wonders if the property is being incorporated into the 7 floor development next door. Hmmm.

DEMO-2025-09019 says "Demolish just the house on 5515 Russell St, Halifax, NS."

The lots are still separate and the building permit for 3050 Gottingen is still 7 floors - 26 units. That could always change.

[kph06]

Driving by the Fares project behind the Credit Union building on Lady Hammond, I see they have renderings up and a name. I think it’s called Beacondsfield, but that was from a quick glance. Seemed like decent infill, similar to the Joe Howe and Bayers building, not a landmark, but not bad.