Canadian cities are about as dense as German cities

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by someone123

Canada as a whole was growing at 3% a year at one point. I know SSP often has these debates about comparability of data but the issue in this case is more that due to the building boom and pace of population growth, 2021 is out of date already in some places. Not many countries in the developed world have cities going through this kind of transformation.

Did Canada welcome 1 million immigrants in one year? I thought it was around 400k-500k. Natural growth in Canada is negligible now, just a few thousands, so all population growth comes from immigration.

3% a year isn’t remarkable for a developed country but to anyplace outside subsaharan Africa.

[someone123]

Yes, "Immigration fuels Canada's largest population growth of over 1 million": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65047436

There have also been major affordability issues so certain cities and areas have been booming with new development (Toronto and Vancouver spillover to places like Calgary, Halifax, and a bunch of Ontario cities). The Kitchener-Waterloo metropolitan area went from 600k in 2021 to just under 700k in 2024 for example, and a disproportionate amount of development has come in the form of highrises downtown, so it's just a completely different city from what it was a decade ago. Their LRT also opened in 2019.

In Halifax, the 9 tallest buildings are under construction. It had 1 tower over 30 storeys in 2018 and soon it will have 11 with the tallest going up to 40 storeys. It is really going from having some residual small town feel to being a solid medium sized city.

Toronto feels very different from a number of years ago. It used to have clusters of highrises around some subway stations with so-so areas in between, with some very prominent holes downtown. Now, everything up to Bloor feels like a consistently built up major commercial area suited to a major world city, and when you walk around areas like Yorkville they have far more meat than they used to.

[Nouvellecosse]

The majority is in the form of temporary foreign workers but we don't have much data on how many exists there are compared to arrivals which has led to speculation about overstays. But what we know is that there has not been a million legally permitted, permanent immigrants in a year.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

The majority is in the form of temporary foreign workers but we don't have much data on how many exists there are compared to arrivals which has led to speculation about overstays. But what we know is that there has not been a million legally permitted, permanent immigrants in a year.

The population did go up by 1 million though and it wasn't uniformly spread out through the country, so some areas grew even faster than average. Toronto grew by around 600,000 people from 2021-2024 according to Statistics Canada. That is a lot of people, enough to meaningfully change densities.

Because of the dramatic increase in housing demand and prices, there has been an overall shift away from detached housing and the dam has been broken somewhat on NIMBYism. Much higher density developments are being built now and the footprint of infill areas has expanded into land that was previously off limits. There is a lot of pent-up demand from years of restrictions. I think the density patterns of Canadian cities in 2026 and 2031 will be quite different from 2021. The feeling on the ground will be dramatically different too.

There's nothing wrong with looking at 2021 as a snapshot but I'm much more curious about how Canadian cities will look when this building boom settles.

[Nouvellecosse]

I'm sure we'll find out in future censuses how much of the million surge was permanent. But regardless, breaking the NIMBY stranglehold is one positive side effect at least.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I'm sure we'll find out in future censuses how much of the million surge was permanent. But regardless, breaking the NIMBY stranglehold is one positive side effect at least.

I don't know but Canada has no exit controls and doesn't exactly have an ICE equivalent aggressively hunting down over-stayers. I do know examples of people following the rules who left, and should have been allowed to stay (they had skilled employment). However, I wonder about the majority who feel they have worse prospects elsewhere.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by someone123

Yes, "Immigration fuels Canada's largest population growth of over 1 million": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65047436

There have also been major affordability issues so certain cities and areas have been booming with new development (Toronto and Vancouver spillover to places like Calgary, Halifax, and a bunch of Ontario cities). The Kitchener-Waterloo metropolitan area went from 600k in 2021 to just under 700k in 2024 for example, and a disproportionate amount of development has come in the form of highrises downtown, so it's just a completely different city from what it was a decade ago. Their LRT also opened in 2019.

In Halifax, the 9 tallest buildings are under construction. It had 1 tower over 30 storeys in 2018 and soon it will have 11 with the tallest going up to 40 storeys. It is really going from having some residual small town feel to being a solid medium sized city.

Toronto feels very different from a number of years ago. It used to have clusters of highrises around some subway stations with so-so areas in between, with some very prominent holes downtown. Now, everything up to Bloor feels like a consistently built up major commercial area suited to a major world city, and when you walk around areas like Yorkville they have far more meat than they used to.

437k immigrants plus 608k non-permanent residents. That's massive and I guess it's not sustainable in the long run, socially, economically or politically. Do they have 2023 and 2024 figures available?

Originally Posted by someone123

The population did go up by 1 million though and it wasn't uniformly spread out through the country, so some areas grew even faster than average. Toronto grew by around 600,000 people from 2021-2024 according to Statistics Canada.

But I guess part of it it's due post-Census rebasing and not all growth per se.

Brazil also does generous post-Census rebasing, specially after this 2022 Census with all Covid-related problems. It only counted 203 million (207 million was the most likely number) and official estimates for 2024 is at 212 million (a bit excessive). Brazil is growing by 1 million people/year, all natural growth (births minus deaths). Emigration and Immigration cancel each other.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Yuri

But I guess part of it it's due post-Census rebasing and not all growth per se.

This isn't 2021 census vs. 2024 corrected figures. I'm looking at consistent annual estimates: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

These are more accurate than the census counts.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by someone123

This isn't 2021 census vs. 2024 corrected figures. I'm looking at consistent annual estimates: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

These are more accurate than the census counts.

I see. 2021 estimates vs 2024 ones. It seems Canada keeps growing over 1 million a year, at least according to the estimates. I thought they were planning to reduce the number.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I see. 2021 estimates vs 2024 ones. It seems Canada keeps growing over 1 million a year, at least according to the estimates. I thought they were planning to reduce the number.

I believe growth has dropped now in 2025. It's a bit unknown as there's some outflow due to prior temporary residents departing.

It's been a wild few years with housing prices exploding, traffic quickly worsening, etc. Canada definitely doesn't expand infrastructure by 3% per year.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by someone123

I believe growth has dropped now in 2025. It's a bit unknown as there's some outflow due to prior temporary residents departing.

It's been a wild few years with housing prices exploding, traffic quickly worsening, etc. Canada definitely doesn't expand infrastructure by 3% per year.

And things are not linear as families keep getting smaller and the increasing on the demand for houses it's usually way higher than the population growth itself. In São Paulo, for instance, population has grown from 11,253,503 (2010) to 11,451,999 (2022). +1.76% growth. Number of households skyrocketed though: from 3,574,286 to 4,309,163. +20.6% increase between Census. Last year alone, there were new 100,000 house units delivered in São Paulo.

As in Canada prices are already very high to begin with, which makes things even worse.

[Nouvellecosse]

I still think it's absurd that we don't track exists properly. Perhaps it's a cultural-institutional carryover from when the technology made it too cumbersome but it should absolutely be feasible at this point.