Statistics Canada Reports II

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I noticed some things like that too; small adjustments yield implausibly large population changes.

Maybe whatever dataset it's drawing from could be more granular. If I do the polygon on the same area of Calgary but extend the borders just a tiny bit north of the river, and then just a tiny bit below 17th, the population shoots up to 34,000.

I tried another one for kicks, using an exact mapping of a neighborhood (Lower Mount Royal) that Statscan says has 2,990 people, but I get 15K using the polygon map, and adjusting it a little I can get it to 7K, but not close to 3K. It's a shame, because as a stats nerd I love the polygon tool.


link

[logan5]

Welp, that app is clearly not even close to accurate, at least when measuring smaller areas.

The alternative is to add up census tracts tracts from stats can, but that is a prohibitive amount of work. Stats Can could possibly make something similar to this maps ie app.

Though it is fairly accurate when I do a polygon around downtown Vancouver. And it got it almost dead on for Mt. Pleasant in Vancouver, for the 2016 population - 32 885, though today that population would be closer to around 35 000.

It is accurate enough to be a useful tool.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by logan5

Welp, that app is clearly not even close to accurate, at least when measuring smaller areas.

The alternative is to add up census tracts tracts from stats can, but that is a prohibitive amount of work. Stats Can could possibly make something similar to this maps ie app.

Though it is fairly accurate when I do a polygon around downtown Vancouver.

Agreed. The census tracts are really the best, but more work. Also I found the same thing, some polygon mappings are accurate. Part of the reason it may have backfired on DT Calgary, is that it can't seem to get the Beltline for some reason. Doing just the Beltline alone, it comes back saying "No Data"

[Chocolite]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

These are the housing start numbers for the first half of 2025 for the top six metros. I'm pasting a screen shot as the table gets all messed up on this site. Calgary leading the charge as Toronto and Vancouver fill up overbuilt inventory.


Source

The original poster mentioned they were surprised by Ottawa’s low numbers, but actually they are inline with the population growth of the 2 cities. Last year Calgary grew by 100K and Ottawa by 40K. Housing starts in Ottawa are roughly 40% of Calgary’s, so nothing surprising there.
What’s surprising to me is if Calgary edges Montreal this year, it’ll be the 3rd straight year they’ve had higher housing starts.

[MolsonExport]

Anyone surprised that Montreal's housing starts are higher than Toronto's? Evidently skewed by apartment construction, but nevertheless?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Anyone surprised that Montreal's housing starts are higher than Toronto's? Evidently skewed by apartment construction, but nevertheless?

I think it's mostly that the collapse in condo presales hasn't had much effect in Montreal, but it's flattened new housing growth in Toronto. In 2023, the Toronto CMA had about 25,000 starts from Jan-June, and last year about 22,000. That's down to only about 12,500 this year.

Beyond the larger cities cited above, Toronto is being creamed on a per-capita basis by cities including but not limited to Quebec City, Kelowna, Moncton, Halifax, Regina, Saskatoon, Victoria, Winnipeg and others.

[davidivivid]

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2025/housing-starts-june-2025

[Pavlov]

Originally Posted by davidivivid

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2025/housing-starts-june-2025

Kingston is booming this year!

[Innsertnamehere]

The Alberta numbers are insane. Calgary is building basically as many SFHs as all of Ontario and has more total starts than the entire GTA. Alberta has more starts than all of Ontario!

Hell, even Montreal is beating Toronto on total starts.

What really strikes me still is the continued complete collapse of SFH starts in Ontario.. the numbers coming out of the province are shockingly tiny.

[harls]

I saw that Quebec is supposed to decline in population by 80K by 2030.. I think it was on some CTV news ticker a week ago or something.

Edit - it was CBC

Quebec population projected to decrease due in part to immigration policies, fertility rates

Population will decline by 80,000 by 2030, Quebec's statistical institute estimates

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-population-decline-temporary-immigration-1.7597803

[Cowtown_Tim]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The Alberta numbers are insane. Calgary is building basically as many SFHs as all of Ontario and has more total starts than the entire GTA. Alberta has more starts than all of Ontario!

Also a lot of row homes and semi detached going up in Calgary. The most of any city. Apartments are strong, but still behind Van/Tor/Mtl

[shappy]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

These are the housing start numbers for the first half of 2025 for the top six metros. I'm pasting a screen shot as the table gets all messed up on this site. Calgary leading the charge as Toronto and Vancouver fill up overbuilt inventory.


Source

Cross-Canada totals %:
SFH 15.4%
Semi 4.1%
Row 10.4%
Apartment 70.1%


Central/Eastern (Tor, Ott, Mon) totals %:
SFH 9.1%
Semi 1.2%
Row 9.0%
Apartment 80.8%


Western (Cal, Edm, Van) totals %:
SFH 20.7%
Semi 6.5%
Row 11.5%
Apartment 61.2%


Big 3 city total %:
SFH 8.0%
Semi 2.2%
Row 7.7%
Apartment 82.2%

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by harls

I saw that Quebec is supposed to decline in population by 80K by 2030.. I think it was on some CTV news ticker a week ago or something.

Edit - it was CBC

Quebec population projected to decrease due in part to immigration policies, fertility rates

Population will decline by 80,000 by 2030, Quebec's statistical institute estimates

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-population-decline-temporary-immigration-1.7597803

oh no, another era of population stagnation for Montreal. Yet QC grows....wonder what is going on there?

[Pellimo]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

oh no, another era of population stagnation for Montreal. Yet QC grows....wonder what is going on there?

For Quebec City ……

Low Cost of living

People from other regions of Quebec who move to Quebec City

Hight quality of life (nature, security, environment, etc…)

Stability

Hight jobs growth

[harls]

Originally Posted by Pellimo

For Quebec City ……

Low Cost of living

People from other regions of Quebec who move to Quebec City

Hight quality of life (nature, security, environment, etc…)

Stability

Hight jobs growth

Quebec sounds like Gatineau. Except you guys get the cooler people and we get Montreal's dirtbags.

[MolsonExport]

I love Quebec City, as one of the most unique of the bigger cities in North America.

But Montreal has the panache, the gravitas, the variety, the bohemianism, and the cosmopolitanism of a true metropolis. The only predominately french-speaking metropolis in the Western Hemisphere.

A shrinking population is something that the big metropolitan areas in Canada have not faced. It looks pretty grim when you see it up close (Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, New Orleans). I would hate to see Montreal find itself in a similar situation (and a throwback to Montreal's long nadir of 1977-1997).

[savevp]

There are a great many who'd love nothing more than to move to Montréal but are precluded from doing so by the tightening language laws. If residence in Toronto or Vancouver required an equivalent grasp of English, they'd both be much smaller indeed.

Not trying to question Quebec's language protections, rather pointing out what seems to be a clear knock-on effect. I'm not sure the twenty-something artist from English Canada is moving to Montréal these days. These are the creatives who, in whatever language, have made Montréal what it is.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

A shrinking population is something that the big metropolitan areas in Canada have not faced. It looks pretty grim when you see it up close (Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, New Orleans). I would hate to see Montreal find itself in a similar situation (and a throwback to Montreal's long nadir of 1977-1997).

If Montreal does end up seeing a shrinking in population I imagine it would only be temporary, maybe one or two years tops and then back to solid growth. It's too nice a city, and it still creates jobs (unlike Cleveland, Detroit, etc..) to lose people over a long period.
Some other cities here in Canada may also see a shrinking or a period of stagnation due to the huge sudden wave of immigration and so many being temporary residents the past couple of years. After a year or two everything will be back on track.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Chocolite

The original poster mentioned they were surprised by Ottawa’s low numbers, but actually they are inline with the population growth of the 2 cities. Last year Calgary grew by 100K and Ottawa by 40K. Housing starts in Ottawa are roughly 40% of Calgary’s, so nothing surprising there.
What’s surprising to me is if Calgary edges Montreal this year, it’ll be the 3rd straight year they’ve had higher housing starts.

That makes sense for Ottawa, it's basically doing as expected. As for Montreal, I think they built a ton a couple of years ago and are still absorbing a lot of that, and Calgary's kind of been on steroid mode lately. I suspect Calgary will carry on through 2025, after that I wouldn't be surprised to see a slowdown.

[harls]

Originally Posted by savevp

There are a great many who'd love nothing more than to move to Montréal but are precluded from doing so by the tightening language laws. If residence in Toronto or Vancouver required an equivalent grasp of English, they'd both be much smaller indeed.

Not trying to question Quebec's language protections, rather pointing out what seems to be a clear knock-on effect. I'm not sure the twenty-something artist from English Canada is moving to Montréal these days. These are the creatives who, in whatever language, have made Montréal what it is.

I was in my 20s and moved to Montreal and had no problem in 2001, with western Canadian French.

This bogeyman needs to disappear. Put in the effort and you can thrive anywhere.