Quote:
Originally Posted by jaradthescot
I would think closer to 25 years. Arena's typically have a lifespan of around 50 years before they are replaced. 25 years comes at you quicker than you think.
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On the matter of expanding arenas in the future, I'm not sure that the method/platform of delivering entertainment (or even the definition of entertainment) in 25 to 50 years could be predicted very well today, given the extreme rate of technological development. The recent A.I. issue (debacle?) of Velvet Sundown is only a very early precursor of a new definition of entertainment that the corporate delivery services will be pushing very hard to expand and perfect into the future (and they will, as the potential for massive profits is too tempting to resist). Coupling that with the potential of perfecting home-based virtual reality technologies and it begs the question if people will go to stadiums/arenas for entertainment with the same frequency as is now.
That statement may sound a little crazy, but take the example of what has happened to the film industry. 30 years ago, home video players coupled with larger high quality displays meant that if people were willing to wait 6 or 8 months after initial release, people could rent/purchase media content and take in most first rate films without ever going to a theatre. With today’s situation of internet infrastructure streaming entertainment content directly into homes that are equipped with low-cost, very large, hi-def displays - and now the commercial delivery services also producing and owning the content, attendance in movie theatres has collapsed. Many theatres have closed, and organisations who invested uncounted millions into building movie theatres in the past 10 years ago will in some cases have lost a lot of money. I’ve seen enormous 8-plex theatres abandoned. If this trend continues, in the future there may still be a consumer demand for seeing a big visual extravagance film on a 3 story tall screen and such, but it begs the question if people will go to movie theatres for entertainment with the same frequency as is now (and it is already in rapid decline). From an urban planning perspective, movie theatres are on the way to becoming a niche thing.
In the future, if the delivery services get the A.I. technology perfected (and they likely will) not only will they be producing and owning the content, they will own the music or acting performers – as they will exist only in the server farms of the content delivery services. Following the investment expenditure to develop the technology and then the individual “performers”, those properties can be used to “perform” endlessly at zero cost to the content provider (something like sophisticated martinets) and so that’s what they are going to make available to the consumer. If home-based V.R. is perfected (and it likely will), then (as an example) why would one pay outlandish costs to see a music concert in an arena at a distance of 50 metres from the stage while sitting in uncomfortable seats, when the performers could instead be playing in your living room? There may still be a desire to go to a live show for the excitement and dopamine rush of being part of the crowd (as the song goes: “To feel the warm thrill of confusion, that space cadet glow”), but like movies now, how frequently will that occur?
Circling back to owners/investors sinking a lot of money into building/expanding arenas and performance halls in a period 25 years and beyond from now, it is questionable how multi-purpose such a facility might be under the scenario just outlined. If sports will still draw crowds, there may still be a more singular purpose for an arena, but the multi-use purpose may go the way of movie theatres. It is situations such as this that long-term planners need to take into acute consideration.
P.S – apologies for the long post, but the topic is difficult to be brief on considering the complexity.
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