Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs
I'm calling bollocks on the Great Lakes cities estimates. Buffalo grew by 17,000 between 2010-2020 but in 2024 is -2,200 people 
benp usually keeps track of how many new units of housing are being constructed and infill is happening in most parts of the city. There's been quite a bit of development collectively across the city limits in the past 5 years. |
Yeah, there's something screwy about how they calculate estimates. In my Census Tract, for instance, which is a very stable neighborhood in North Buffalo primarily of doubles, singles, and a few apartments, a change between the last 2 ACS estimates showed a drop of 582 residents, or 12.5% of the tract population!
There is no way that our neighborhood saw a sudden 12.5% drop, or maybe any drop at all. Home sales are brisk, few vacancies, many new children. The neighborhood is fully built out, and there have been zero properties torn down or taken off the market. Knowing the neighborhood, the change in occupancy numbers makes no sense.
When looking at other tracts, it looks like many of these numbers were pulled out of a hat. Some tracts show double digit percentage changes up, others double digit down.
Regarding housing, my best estimate is that just over 3000 new units were completed in the city limits since 2020. The latest ACS estimates for Buffalo show an increase of over 4000 new units, with an increase of 4,228
occupied housing units since 2020. Based on the increase in occupied units, it would certainly be expected to be reflected in an associated population increase. For reference, in 2020 there was an increase of 6583 units, an average of 2.6 people per new unit added. If that per-person number is applied to the latest ACS estimates, it would total about 11,000 new residents since 2020.
As I stated when the 2020 Census results came out, I think that the Census estimators have a difficult time estimating population of cities with high vacancy rates, as their algorithms primarily base population changes on "new" units rather that re-occupation of long-vacant units. Per the last estimates prior to 2020, Buffalo was expected to have lost around 5000, but the actual count showed a gain of 17,000 - an error of 23,000.
To sum it all up - who the hell knows what the real numbers will show in 2030.
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