Statistics Canada Reports II

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by trueviking

I'm going to sound like prairie boy here, but I drove from toronto to the states last summer and was amazed at how it was basically one continuous city between hamilton and toronto..there was a place on the highway where I could see both the hamilton and toronto skylines....i didnt realize they were so connected.

A lot of people in Canada don't realize that between Hamilton and Toronto are Burlington (pop ~200k), Oakville (pop ~240k) and then Mississauga (~780k) lakefront heading into former Etobicoke then downtown Toronto. Lakefront property is always really valuable in Ontario, particularly the closer one gets to Toronto (generally speaking).

I'm always amazed when fellow Canadians (not meaning you) think Hamilton is a smaller city when now it's around 640,000. The last 5 years Hamilton has been going through a 30 storey high rise residential boom as most buildings have been between 30-34 storeys.

In every Canadian census, it's always been one of Canada's 10 largest cities, with the exception of the 1996 census, before Hamilton amalgamated with its suburbs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Canadian_cities_by_census

[Innsertnamehere]

Hamilton struggles for growth due to geography - the fastest growing part of the CMA is the part closer to toronto, but it’s hemmed in by Greenbelt, the escarpment, and Lake Ontario which makes growth difficult.

Plus council has decided to ban greenfield development, and for many they won’t take a big commute from Hamilton for a slightly larger condo.

Like it or not Hamilton itself really struggles to attract private businesses as well - the city’s major employment growth drivers are mostly hospitals and universities. Burlington has a lot of private industry that’s increasingly spilling into Hamilton itself.. but not having strong employment drivers doesn’t help the population growth either

Regardless Hamilton often feels like the “forgotten” Canadian city - people seem more prone to list Saskatoon and Halifax in lists before Hamilton.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Hamilton struggles for growth due to geography - the fastest growing part of the CMA is the part closer to toronto, but it’s hemmed in by Greenbelt, the escarpment, and Lake Ontario which makes growth difficult.

Plus council has decided to ban greenfield development, and for many they won’t take a big commute from Hamilton for a slightly larger condo.

Like it or not Hamilton itself really struggles to attract private businesses as well - the city’s major employment growth drivers are mostly hospitals and universities. Burlington has a lot of private industry that’s increasingly spilling into Hamilton itself.. but not having strong employment drivers doesn’t help the population growth either

Regardless Hamilton often feels like the “forgotten” Canadian city - people seem more prone to list Saskatoon and Halifax in lists before Hamilton.

I've noticed that in terms of population of the metro areas, Winnipeg is pulling away from Hamilton. Back in the 90s, Hamilton actually surpassed us for a decade, beginning around 2000. However, Winnipeg started to grow much faster by around 2009-P.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I'm always amazed when fellow Canadians (not meaning you) think Hamilton is a smaller city when now it's around 640,000. The last 5 years Hamilton has been going through a 30 storey high rise residential boom as most buildings have been between 30-34 storeys.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Canadian_cities_by_census

My guess is that most Canadians not from Ontario think of Hamilton as a major city that is more stand alone than it actually is. Do many people live in Hamilton and commute to Toronto?

[niwell]

Originally Posted by trueviking

My guess is that most Canadians not from Ontario think of Hamilton as a major city that is more stand alone than it actually is. Do many people live in Hamilton and commute to Toronto?

I know a few. A lot more commute to the Western part of the GTA, particularly Burlington and Mississauga. It's a brutal commute but only having to go into the office a few times a week makes the tradeoff doable for those I know coming into central Toronto.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by trueviking

My guess is that most Canadians not from Ontario think of Hamilton as a major city that is more stand alone than it actually is. Do many people live in Hamilton and commute to Toronto?

My guess is that most Canadians have never really thought about Hamilton at all and don't know anything about it other than they've heard "it's dirty, industrial, they make steel there"or something to that effect

[ZTrade]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Hamilton struggles for growth due to geography - the fastest growing part of the CMA is the part closer to toronto, but it’s hemmed in by Greenbelt, the escarpment, and Lake Ontario which makes growth difficult.

Plus council has decided to ban greenfield development, and for many they won’t take a big commute from Hamilton for a slightly larger condo.

Like it or not Hamilton itself really struggles to attract private businesses as well - the city’s major employment growth drivers are mostly hospitals and universities. Burlington has a lot of private industry that’s increasingly spilling into Hamilton itself.. but not having strong employment drivers doesn’t help the population growth either

Regardless Hamilton often feels like the “forgotten” Canadian city - people seem more prone to list Saskatoon and Halifax in lists before Hamilton.

On the north side of the QEW, Hamilton and Grimsby are one urban agglomeration now. Lincoln and Grimsby will probably connect next decade and in the 2040s Vineland and Lincoln might connect.

Approximately 30% of Hamilton residents commute outside the city for work, with a significant portion traveling to the GTA. 12% work in Burlington, while others head to destinations like Mississauga, Oakville and Toronto.

Hamilton will likely never see the level of private business GTA has, however, with increased GO and transit connections, it will become more of a bedroom community. A bedroom community with a vibrant downtown and beautiful nature.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Alberta is 102 people away from 5 million. I will be asleep when it rolls over

[MolsonExport]

75 to go...

[BlackDog204]

The population clock is adding people at a rate too high. I believe Canada added roughly 62,000 people in Q1. It's also on a downward trajectory, as many of the temporary students and workers leave. I would not be surprise if the population stagnates or even decreases slightly by Q3.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The population clock is adding people at a rate too high. I believe Canada added roughly 62,000 people in Q1. It's also on a downward trajectory, as many of the temporary students and workers leave. I would not be surprise if the population stagnates or even decreases slightly by Q3.

Q1 is usually the slowest quarter for population growth, Q2 is usually much higher. the population clock is adding around 1,200 a day or 109,000 for the quarter which would make sense to me if Q1 was 61,000

[craner]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

75 to go...

7 more to go as of 10:54 MDT

[KnoxfordGuy]

Alberta population: 5,000,100.

[MonctonRad]

And Albertans think we don't care...........

[MolsonExport]

Congrats Alberta on achieving a population milestone.

[Base]

Exciting day for AB and it's nice to see the first number (5) of it's population count matching BC for the next little while.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by trueviking

My guess is that most Canadians not from Ontario think of Hamilton as a major city that is more stand alone than it actually is. Do many people live in Hamilton and commute to Toronto?

My wife has done this for two different instances.

Right after she finished uni ~8years ago we had an apartment in Hamilton, and she'd drive to Aldershot then Go Train to downtown Toronto to work at a law firm. She got sick of the job istelf but also the commute, and got a different job in Stoney Creek.

Actually during that same time I was also commuting out of Hamilton, but the other way. About 55 minutes to a place in between Norwich and Woodstock. I also got sick of that job, and found something in Hamilton. The job was way better but the short commute was a big positive.

She gradually ended up working fully from home until last year. Started a new job going to Mississauga 3 days a week. Which has since dropped to 2 which is of course better.

And then late last year we moved to outside Caledonia, so now technically I count as a commuter from outside Hamilton, and she commutes right on by from one side Hamilton, past it to the GTA.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Nite

Q1 is usually the slowest quarter for population growth, Q2 is usually much higher. the population clock is adding around 1,200 a day or 109,000 for the quarter which would make sense to me if Q1 was 61,000

Carney has indicated that he wants to keep temporary students/workers at 5% of the population, tops. Aside from that, the growth rate was it's lowest since 2021, and the clock has already been revised twice, to a lower count. If we go by Q1 counts, Canada will grow by 670/day. Although CIBC estimates the population will grow by 1% as compared to Stastics Canada's 0.3%

"Statistics Canada officially projects 0.3% population growth in 2025, to be followed by negative 0.2% in 2026. We believe that those projections are too low due to dual factors of overestimating the number of NPRs leaving the country, and undercounting asylum seekers and “others”.


source: https://thoughtleadership.cibc.com/artic...jections-are-we-repeating-past-mistakes/

0.3% growth for 2025 would be about 125,000
0.4% growth for 2025 would be about 166,000
0.5% growth for 2025 would be about 207,500
1.0% growth for 2025 would be about 415,000
1.1% growth for 2025 would be about 447,000

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by jonny24

My wife has done this for two different instances.

Right after she finished uni ~8years ago we had an apartment in Hamilton, and she'd drive to Aldershot then Go Train to downtown Toronto to work at a law firm. She got sick of the job istelf but also the commute, and got a different job in Stoney Creek.

Actually during that same time I was also commuting out of Hamilton, but the other way. About 55 minutes to a place in between Norwich and Woodstock. I also got sick of that job, and found something in Hamilton. The job was way better but the short commute was a big positive.

She gradually ended up working fully from home until last year. Started a new job going to Mississauga 3 days a week. Which has since dropped to 2 which is of course better.

And then late last year we moved to outside Caledonia, so now technically I count as a commuter from outside Hamilton, and she commutes right on by from one side Hamilton, past it to the GTA.

It looks like the Kitchener-Waterloo region is catching up to Hamilton's metro population. Does the K-W area feel as big as Hamilton?

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The population clock is adding people at a rate too high. I believe Canada added roughly 62,000 people in Q1. It's also on a downward trajectory, as many of the temporary students and workers leave. I would not be surprise if the population stagnates or even decreases slightly by Q3.

I agree. Canada's population growth has collapsed which is a good thing for our housing crisis and overburdened healthcare system.

Comparing our 2023 Q1 to 2024, the difference is massive. Our total pop growth fell from 271k to 63, in Ontario is was 126k to 11, and in BC it was 34k to 3. Manitoba was 10 to 4k. That's right, Manitoba grew in real numbers by more than BC. NS/PEI/NF all saw population declines. I expect the Canadapopclock to be further revised down like it has been for the last 2 quarters. Canada will probably be at negative growth by the fall as more and more students/TFW see their permits expire and are forced out of the country.

Even mighty Alberta saw it's population growth more than cut in half but it still accounted for nearly half of the population growth for the whole country. As I have stated before, Alberta has the healthiest rate of population growth because it is not completely dependent upon immigration/students/TFWs like nearly every other one. Alberta has a healthy balance of immigration, the youngest population in the country, and strong in-migration from every other province. Even that however, due to probably another downward revision when the new quarterly report comes out, we will see it fall back to under 5 million, if only by a bit.

This is the population growth reversal Canada so desperately needs if we are to regain our standard of living and veer our economic growth away from our highly unproductive real estate based one.