Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link

apologies for CPAC's anti SSP bs lol, jk

[Marty_Mcfly]

I invite you all to once again complete another election survey. The last one didn't achieve a high enough sample size to work up the data, but since launching this one on Monday we're getting a really good response rate so we will be able to share our results.

Not super surprising results so far, but as always I would love to see more Atlantic responses. Decent numbers from NB and NL so far, NS is sort of lacking, and nothing from PEI.

https://forms.gle/5EQpMfZuBYkWaPAf7

[Marty_Mcfly]

Most up to date Atlantic regionals for each major polling agency. Beyond the three rolling polls, we may only get one more release from each agency, plus a random Forum last minute release.

Average is an unweighted average of each of the polls.

Still a bit of variation. These agencies usually come together in their last poll to all be within a decent spread of one another. That being said, the average right now would seem to be a likely election night scenario.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Elections Canada has released the numbers of people who have voted early by riding. Looks like turnout will be high this year
https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=ge45_advpol&lang=e#tbl1

[bingun]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

Elections Canada has released the numbers of people who have voted early by riding. Looks like turnout will be high this year
https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=ge45_advpol&lang=e#tbl1

29,518 in Beauséjour! That is roughly 1/3 of the entire population. I think Dominic can sleep easy.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ I think LeBlanc could have slept easy even if we were still in a CPC 200+ seat situation

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^ I think LeBlanc could have slept easy even if we were still in a CPC 200+ seat situation

Probably the safest Liberal seat in the country.

Easily in the "maggot-infested-road-killed-skunk-could-get-elected" territory (if it was running as a Liberal).

[Marty_Mcfly]

I'll wait until Sunday to make my final predictions, as I'm still waiting to see if polling will converge a bit more than it already has (though it does seem to be settling around a 10-15 point difference).

I will predict the winners for the rest of Atlantic Canada, but I do admit that I am not very in touch with what's happening on the ground outside of Newfoundland. I feel like I have a good idea of the local factors which can be missed in polling averages for NL, but I can't say the same for elsewhere.

My gut, based on the polling averages, says that not much will change from 2021. I think we could see some shifts of where seats are won, but I do think at the end of the night it might not look so different than the beginning of the night.

[ivegotaname]

I dont envy any of them whoever wins its the worst time to be a prime minister with so much on the line.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

Elections Canada has released the numbers of people who have voted early by riding. Looks like turnout will be high this year
https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=ge45_advpol&lang=e#tbl1

Will turn out be high, or were people just taking advantage of the long holiday weekend to advance vote.

[ivegotaname]

I think wayne loses his seat with his backing of Carney.

[ivegotaname]

I hope someday we maritimrers do away with political parties and run as solely independants without the baggage of a parties past.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

I think wayne loses his seat with his backing of Carney.

I dont think Wayne will lose. A lot of long tome Conservatives are not happy with the way the Conservative candidate was dropped in to their riding. Couple that with her refusal to do any type of interview or even talk to any potential constituents - Id be surprised if she won.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Nah, we are not in a political environment where you would expect pure urban seats like Saint John-Kennebecasis to flip blue. That would be highly, highly unlikely.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

I hope someday we maritimrers do away with political parties and run as solely independants without the baggage of a parties past.

This is my dream.

Parties only exist because it makes politics tribal and therefore drive interest in the low information voters.

Are you French? Well you HAVE to vote Liberal, cause everyone else hates you.

Are you an entrepreneur? Well you HAVE to vote for the Conservatives, because everyone else wants to tax you to death...

Blah blah blah.

The argument that removing parties would drive voter turnout down is also dumb. The people voting would have actually taken the time to look up candidates and would likely have paid much more attention to politics, and therefore be a more informed voters. This would be better for all Canadians.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Maritime voters are very pragmatic, as are Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. I think people in the maritimes already get that they get slightly more representation than we "deserve" for being one of the first provinces, and they see the greater benefit of sending MPs who are going to be part of the sitting government to Ottawa, rather than members of the opposition.

New Brunswick sure won't be doing itself any favours sending four of its ten MP's to Ottawa as members of the opposition. Here in my riding of Saint John-St. Croix, voting for the CPC's John Williamson would essentially be the dictionary definition of voting against the interests of the riding, as international trade is vital to the economic prosperity of this riding. We'd be much better served sending a member of the government to Ottawa to represent our interests. For my riding, all I can do is hope that Fournier's projection is wrong, which was somewhat the case with 338 and the 2024 NB Election... he just doesn't have nearly enough data to accurately predict locals races in New Brunswick, so I think the riding is still in the realm of flippable.

For the sake of my riding these next four years... I really hope people were willing to put their riding first for a change. 🙏 🗳 🇨🇦

[sailor734]

Just got back from voting in Saint John-Kenn. Very, very quiet......as in poll workers outnumbering voters about 4:1

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Just got back from voting in Saint John-Kenn. Very, very quiet......as in poll workers outnumbering voters about 4:1

I'm predicting lineups again by the end of the night, like in the provincial election here on the West Side.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I went to vote this morning in SJ-St. Croix as soon as the polls opened at 8:30. Wasn't very busy. Was back at the polling station at roughly 11AM and it was slightly busier but not people out the door busy. I think it'll get busy after supper.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Maritime voters are very pragmatic, as are Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. I think people in the maritimes already get that they get slightly more representation than we "deserve" for being one of the first provinces, and they see the greater benefit of sending MPs who are going to be part of the sitting government to Ottawa, rather than members of the opposition.

New Brunswick sure won't be doing itself any favours sending four of its ten MP's to Ottawa as members of the opposition. Here in my riding of Saint John-St. Croix, voting for the CPC's John Williamson would essentially be the dictionary definition of voting against the interests of the riding, as international trade is vital to the economic prosperity of this riding. We'd be much better served sending a member of the government to Ottawa to represent our interests. For my riding, all I can do is hope that Fournier's projection is wrong, which was somewhat the case with 338 and the 2024 NB Election... he just doesn't have nearly enough data to accurately predict locals races in New Brunswick, so I think the riding is still in the realm of flippable.

For the sake of my riding these next four years... I really hope people were willing to put their riding first for a change. 🙏 🗳 🇨🇦

Never got the chance to reply to this before the fighting and shit slinging got the other thread locked.

I want to comment on this because I'm not entirely sure this is true for Newfoundland, or at least parts of it. There has been a long tradition of voting Liberal just because, and it's still present to some degree today. However, there are plenty of people in ridings like Terra Nova, Central, and Long Range, where MPs have been Liberal for the majority (or all of) the current Liberal government, who are sitting around asking "what have we actually benefitted from by voting Liberal for all these years?" What you end up getting are god awful MPs like Churence Rogers, who was voted in on the coat tails of the Liberal brand, and then continued to do absolutely nothing for the district up until his retirement.

You say that people see value in sending MPs to parliament of the governing party. I say that there are a lot of disenfranchised rural Newfoundlanders who are growing tired of voting for Liberal MPs and not seeing the benefits you claim come with doing so.