Canadian Federal Election

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I've heard the name but don't know anything about her.

Ego would be the reason. This guy's also a failed MPP Conservative candidate in the 2022 Ontario election. This election could even be closer.



You're the person that couldn't even comprehend jonny24's post the other day.

Hedy Fry defeated a sitting Prime Minister, Kim Campbell in 1993. She has been re-elected in every single federal election since.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 42.7%, 192 seats
CPC - 38,3%, 122 seats
BLQ - 5.9%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.4%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.6%, 0 seats

The slow downward drift of the LPC continues. The prediction is currently 192 seats. At one point, they were at 204 seats. If the current rate of drift is maintained, they might only get a tight majority government with only a few seats to spare.

I really want to avoid a minority government. I do not want the NDP holding the LPC hostage like they did over the last four years. We can't afford any more NDP extortion.

That is pretty close to what I predicted. The only noticeable difference is that I predict that the Bloc will get 13 seats meaning a bigger number for the Liberals.

A chance of a CPC victory is very slim and even a Liberal minority victory is not all that big. I have to mention again that even I may be underestimating a Liberal surge in Ontario and Quebec.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Why do you assume that Alberta has good representation?

I dont. I am just asking if Alberta would be better off not voting for the people they think would better represent them and just give in and vote to be in power with the Liberals.

Being with the party in power is no better for someone if that party isn't working in your interests.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Can you imagine if PP loses his riding?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...e-poilievre-seat-ottawa-carleton-riding/

paywall bypass link - https://archive.is/pwuuz

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

G&M is reporting that Poilievre's own seat could be at risk. That would be a shocker and I'm sceptical.

That certainly would be a huge shocker if he lost his own seat. It's definitely possible but it would have to be a pretty significant surge in Liberal support.

He hasn't always won his riding by huge margins. His first election in 2004 he got about 45% and defeated the incumbent Liberal MP who got 40%. In 2015 he got about 47% of the votes while the Liberal candidate got 44%. So there is a possibility.

A factor in PP's favour is that the riding he has represented has become more rural over the years with boundary changes. His riding includes all of the rural parts of the City of Ottawa and some sections of suburban neighbourhoods. Most of his riding traditionally votes conservative although some of the suburban areas can have significant Liberal support in some elections. The suburban population does make up quite a bit of the riding's population but I'm not sure of the exact percentage.

Something that isn't in PP's favour is that there are quite a few federal public servants in the riding. Many of them are not fond of someone like PP who is further to the right than your typical Ontario conservative and that he wants to reduce the size of the public service.

I also have to add that I have quite a few relatives who live in PP's riding of Carleton and some who live in parts of Nepean that were previously part of his riding. Some of them just love him and others just can't stand him.

[casper]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

Can you imagine if PP loses his riding?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...e-poilievre-seat-ottawa-carleton-riding/

Yes I can. Quit easily given his style.



Look at it from the positive side, he will be able to spend more time with his little one making pizza while the Conservatives rebuild.

In four year, there is a high probability that the urge for change will be so great that the Liberals will lose. Sad but its hard to win for so long. Having a more centralist progressive rational Conservatives would be a good thing if they get back in. They need to reinvest themselves. That will take time and a new leader.

[Wigs]

Remember folks, if the CPC loses badly it's all because of the leadership. It should have been an easy layup considering the nationwide frustration with Trudeau and the Liberals.

This guy had 2.5 years to come up with a true alternative to the Liberals but instead is a three word slogan generator with a Pixie dust platform. Somewhere in Ontario, Tim Hudak is saying "I could see this coming"

Many Canadians just don't like the leader. And getting the Harper endorsement is laughable.

[MolsonExport]

The conservatives need to pivot back towards the centre (where most Canadians are found), which is impossible under Poilievre and his steadfast commitment to the far right base of the party. A far right conservative party has about as much likelihood of long term electoral success as a far left liberal party (i.e., the NDP, but even more to the left than presently).

Verb-the-Noun.

Turf-the-Pierre.
Axe-the-Deplorables.
Cut-the-Crap.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Loco101

That certainly would be a huge shocker if he lost his own seat. It's definitely possible but it would have to be a pretty significant surge in Liberal support.

He hasn't always won his riding by huge margins. His first election in 2004 he got about 45% and defeated the incumbent Liberal MP who got 40%. In 2015 he got about 47% of the votes while the Liberal candidate got 44%. So there is a possibility.

A factor in PP's favour is that the riding he has represented has become more rural over the years with boundary changes. His riding includes all of the rural parts of the City of Ottawa and some sections of suburban neighbourhoods. Most of his riding traditionally votes conservative although some of the suburban areas can have significant Liberal support in some elections. The suburban population does make up quite a bit of the riding's population but I'm not sure of the exact percentage.

Something that isn't in PP's favour is that there are quite a few federal public servants in the riding. Many of them are not fond of someone like PP who is further to the right than your typical Ontario conservative and that he wants to reduce the size of the public service.

I also have to add that I have quite a few relatives who live in PP's riding of Carleton and some who live in parts of Nepean that were previously part of his riding. Some of them just love him and others just can't stand him.

My understanding was that PP was considered by constituents to be an excellent, responsive MP.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

It’s highly unlikely, but what happens if we have something like this:
LPC - 160
CPC - 140
BQ - 29
NDP - 7
GP - 2

Hope that the LPC gets the 5 you are missing and the NDP and Greens support the government through their own respective leadership races.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Hedy Fry defeated a sitting Prime Minister, Kim Campbell in 1993. She has been re-elected in every single federal election since.

And has been doing diddly ever since.

[Taeolas]

Oh look, The Toddler in Chief gave Carney an Election eve gift

The president was speaking to reporters from the Oval Office, when he repeated his false claim that the United States "subsidizes" Canada to the tune of $200 billion a year.

"I have to be honest, as a state it works great. As a nation — consider the fact that what they do as a nation, 95 per cent of what they do is they buy from us and they sell to us," Trump said.

[casper]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Can you expand on their specific objection?

Is it the traffic (noise etc)?
Is it the potential for increased inhabitation?
Is it more potential tourism?
Or is it just they hate fixed link and that's the end of it?

If inhabitation is the issue, it could be overcome by barring land subdivisions and sales. If traffic/tourism is the issue, the bridge could be throughfare only, with giant fees for anyone exiting the bridge except locals. Clearly they want some connection, since ferry routes go there. Just trying to understand.



Have seen that. Makes no mention of a Semi-Fixed link for Victoria like I posted. That's why I ask. Doesn't seem to have been proposed anywhere I can find.

I have lived in Metro Vancouver as well as Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. I have been on Vancouver Island for the last 10 years.

People who want to live on an island are looking for a sense of place and community. They will go out of their way to buy local. Local means grown on this island or services provided by island owned business. Farmers markets are popular. The ferries are a natural and welcome barrier.

Vancouver Island is big and Victoria has a bit more of a big city vibe. However the gulf island are very "green" places. They also have the small town vibe where you know your neighbor. There is a reason Elizabeth May constantly wins that ridding.

Anti-traffic, but pro-tourism. Especially tourist that are in to outdoors.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

My understanding was that PP was considered by constituents to be an excellent, responsive MP.

Yes, as an MP his constituency work was very good. I had dealt with his constituency office in a previous job and his staff was great. He treated them well. I've dealt with some MP offices where the representatives weren't treated well, had high turnover and things were very disorganized. But PP's staff was on the ball which was appreciated.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by casper

I have lived in Metro Vancouver as well as Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. I have been on Vancouver Island for the last 10 years.

People who want to live on an island are looking for a sense of place and community. They will go out of their way to buy local. Local means grown on this island or services provided by island owned business. Farmers markets are popular. The ferries are a natural and welcome barrier.

Vancouver Island is big and Victoria has a bit more of a big city vibe. However the gulf island are very "green" places. They also have the small town vibe where you know your neighbor. There is a reason Elizabeth May constantly wins that ridding.

Anti-traffic, but pro-tourism. Especially tourist that are in to outdoors.

I predicted that she is going to lose in her riding this time going by current data. But it's not a for sure thing and it may be a very close race. Her name is very well known and I'm sure that she still has a fairly strong core of supporters. Vancouver Island is a place where a number of currently NDP seats (and May's seat) are predicted to go Conservative by a number of prediction sites. But none of them address where the Liberal and NDP support may go which I find odd.

[BlackDog204]

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Oh look, The Toddler in Chief gave Carney an Election eve gift

A subsidy is when you give money freely and don't get anything in return for it. The US gets many things for that "subsidy", like oil, lumber, etc.. A trade deficit is not a bad thing, it's normal when one country is wealthier and larger than the other; it has more currency to spend than the other, and more customers to buy. There is a surplus of idiocy down there. I have a trade deficit with my local supermarket, but do they owe me something for that? It's like saying that gravity is very unfair to some people, very unfair.

[Hackslack]

Latest innovative research poll has the CPC and LPC tied at 38

LIB: 38% (-2%)
CON: 38% (+3%)
NDP: 12% (-%)
BQ: 7% (+1%)
GRN: 3% (-1%)
OTH/PPC: 2% (-1%)

Interesting too are age groups

18-35: CPC 49% LPC 35%
36-54: CPC 51% LPC 36%
55+: CPC 27% LPC 54%


According to this poll the boomers are saving the Liberal folk.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Latest innovative research poll has the CPC and LPC tied at 38

LIB: 38% (-2%)
CON: 38% (+3%)
NDP: 12% (-%)
BQ: 7% (+1%)
GRN: 3% (-1%)
OTH/PPC: 2% (-1%)

Interesting too are age groups

18-35: CPC 49% LPC 35%
36-54: CPC 51% LPC 36%
55+: CPC 27% LPC 54%


According to this poll the boomers are saving the Liberal folk.

That's not what 338 says. I've been seeing similar misinformation from the CPC and its followers all week. Boomers are smarter than younger voters. But, seriously, if we as a country eff this up with a minority government, we'll get what we deserve just like the Americans.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Architype

That's not what 338 says. I've been seeing similar misinformation from the CPC and its followers all week. Boomers are smarter than younger voters. But, seriously, if we as a country eff this up with a minority government, we'll get what we deserve just like the Americans.

Huh? 338 hasn't updated with the Innovative poll listed yet.