Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by madog222

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-new...ntial-property-non-canadians-regulations

Yeah this should make housing more affordable Maybe we can add 10 million people into the country as well to make it even more affordable too!

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Yeah this should make housing more affordable Maybe we can add 10 million people into the country as well to make it even more affordable too!

It's a good change, we shouldn't block capital from flowing into the country; Especially if it's for building much needed housing. Even in Australia the land of "no foreign buyers" they allow foreigners to buy vacant land and new builds. New builds are our friends, let them bloom!

[JaneSandpiper]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Really? An investor can pay off a condo by renting it out in five years? That seems unlikely, even going the AirBnB route. If it's true, it's not at all surprising that nearly half the condos in the city are owned as investments. (Some were second homes, but we know that the new tax regime has pushed some of those back into the market).

The new tax on the real estate market aims to balance the scales by discouraging short-term speculative investments and promoting long-term rentals. This could lead to more stable and affordable housing options, benefiting both tenants and the broader community.

[MIPS]

Vancouver Sun is projecting opinions again.

Is it time for Canada to relax restrictions on foreign buyers and investment in real estate?
Tariff uncertainty has stalled already tepid activity in the pre-sales market, reigniting talk about the pros and cons of foreign buyer rules

For some years now, there has been broad public acceptance for restrictions on foreign homebuyers through taxes and bans.

But as economic uncertainty about tariffs and global stock market turbulence stall what was already tepid activity in the local pre-sales condo market and plans for purpose-built rentals, these issues have also reignited conversations about the pros and cons of modifying rules for foreign buyers.

Here is a breakdown of how the discussion is playing out in the development industry, the federal election, and academia.

- https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-foreign-buyer-restrictions-investment-real-estate-pros-cons

There are a growing number of people in the real estate industry who are suggesting opening some parts of the market to foreign investment or buyers to raise money for projects that are more costly and complicated than before.

Fsck riiiiiiiiight off. We don't want pretty. We want places we can say "We OWN." If you are implying there's no point building in vancouver because the wealthiest demographic is being barred from the market, Canada is not for sale.

[Migrant_Coconut]

"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

Given the Sun's owners though, they're always going to ask anyway.

[jollyburger]

^^ Add a ban on foreign ownership of Canadian companies while you're at it. "Canada is not for sale"

They'll flip flop on this within five years. Just wait for it.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

Given the Sun's owners though, they're always going to ask anyway.

Betteridge's Law of Newspaper Headlines went from being 'frequently true' to 'extraordinarily accurate' when news went online and clickbait headlines metastasized.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by MIPS

Vancouver Sun is projecting opinions again.

Fsck riiiiiiiiight off. We don't want pretty. We want places we can say "We OWN." If you are implying there's no point building in vancouver because the wealthiest demographic is being barred from the market, Canada is not for sale.

One wonders why the developers don't address why they apparently can't build product that working Canadians can afford?

Falling back on whoring out Canadian homes to foreign money is always a bad idea.

[Burquitlaman]

Originally Posted by whatnext

One wonders why the developers don't address why they apparently can't build product that working Canadians can afford?

Falling back on whoring out Canadian homes to foreign money is always a bad idea.

Developers are not the reason Canadians make 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income. The RE market getting destroyed may make the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income situation even worse. Canada's economy is horrible, that's the issue.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Burquitlaman

Developers are not the reason Canadians make 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income. The RE market getting destroyed may make the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income situation even worse. Canada's economy is horrible, that's the issue.

The Canadian economy has problems, but it isn't horrible compared to anywhere else in North or South America that isn't the USA, most of Europe, and all of Asia outside of tax havens and oil kingdoms.

[Burquitlaman]

Originally Posted by mcj

The Canadian economy has problems, but it isn't horrible compared to anywhere else in North or South America that isn't the USA, most of Europe, and all of Asia outside of tax havens and oil kingdoms.

End of the day it's pure math. Developers can't knock off too much from their prices from where they are. Incomes in Canada are not keeping up with costs.

Destroying the RE industry will destroy more jobs and push incomes even lower.

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by Burquitlaman

Developers are not the reason Canadians make 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income. The RE market getting destroyed may make the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income situation even worse. Canada's economy is horrible, that's the issue.

I see the inability to deflate property values under the risk of losing money in an unrealistic investment strategy to be a portion of this. Lets be real here. Grandma Sally and Old Man Toby aren't complaining that $1.9million for the home they bought for $60K in 1981 is too little. It's folks who bought-in too high and will absolutely not take the loss. I'm still looking at the strip of land in East Van that sold a few years back for $15000 and is too small to fit any sort of a residence under zoning. It's sold at least four times and has accumulated more than ten times the initial sale value but it's still too small to build anything on it (and there's been at least two Tiny Home applications, both were rejected because they are too narrow). It was just flipped over and over and over to make the return on the initial investment and now its so expensive that unless you bought the million dollar home next door and ran the permit process to combine the two lots for redevelopment it's unaffordable now, even to just pave it hand have a driveway.

The article alludes that the only reason the RE market is "stagnating" is because yes, nobody here can afford new builds, so clearly the only way to keep the line going up is to go back to allowing foreign cash flow in which solves nothing for domestic affairs.
At which point though do you jsut become a bigger example of "nobody actually lives in Kelowna. The population is mostly Albertans."?

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

One wonders why the developers don't address why they apparently can't build product that working Canadians can afford?

Falling back on whoring out Canadian homes to foreign money is always a bad idea.

Voters and politicians call these items developers address the issues of housing as "lobbying", and generally in bad light.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Burquitlaman

Developers are not the reason Canadians make 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income. The RE market getting destroyed may make the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 income situation even worse. Canada's economy is horrible, that's the issue.

It is pretty hard to think of any area in the western world where incomes have increased by the amount that Canadian housing costs have over the last 15 years. The problem is governments and developers built and sold projects to buyers that were never tied to Canadian incomes.

[GMD]

I was surprised the other day to realize that, if you look at the benchmarks for detached and condo in the MLS index, Vancouver prices are currently below the 2016 (detached) to 2018 (condo) peak levels (adjusted for cpi inflation).

I checked this for plausibility against historical assessments on a couple of properties and it mostly tracks, allowing for assessments not quite catching the peak due to how they work.

Of course, Vancouver had quite a spike in those years, but still, almost a decade of negative real price growth isn't the narrative you hear on this thread or in general around town.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GMD

I was surprised the other day to realize that, if you look at the benchmarks for detached and condo in the MLS index, Vancouver prices are currently below the 2016 (detached) to 2018 (condo) peak levels (adjusted for cpi inflation).

Adjusted for inflation is important. We were living through such a long low inflation period that most of the gains were real. But a flat market in 6-8% inflation is of course a 6-8% dip instead.

[idunno]

I mention this to people here and there and it's usually a surprise to them. Especially downtown, condos peaked in 2016 with the foreign capital wave. Things were so overheated then (especially in the luxury segment) and prices haven't materially changed since.

For certain areas like Coal Harbour, prices have decreased even without accounting for inflation!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by idunno

I mention this to people here and there and it's usually a surprise to them. Especially downtown, condos peaked in 2016 with the foreign capital wave. Things were so overheated then (especially in the luxury segment) and prices haven't materially changed since.

For certain areas like Coal Harbour, prices have decreased even without accounting for inflation!

Yes, one can definitely see where the first of measures to restrict foreign buyers started having an impact. However prices still remain ridiculously high, hence articles like this one today:

Has housing affordability in Vancouver improved since the last federal election?
Amir Ali
Apr 24 2025

It has been four years since the last federal election, but one thing hasn’t changed: housing remains a key voter issue for Vancouver residents.

We have seen many changes in housing over the last four years, but one reality has stayed constant: buying a home remains unaffordable for most Vancouver residents.

According to a recent Royal LePage survey, housing is a bigger issue for Vancouver residents than nationally. But has the housing crisis improved or worsened since the last federal election?

If we answer that question by looking only at the cost of buying a home, the situation hasn’t improved much since 2021...

...In March 2021, the benchmark price (the price of a typical home in a general area) of a detached house in Greater Vancouver was $1,700,200. That month, 1,965 homes were sold, with a typical home staying on the market for an average of 27 days before being sold. There were also 3,713 active listings.

That same month, the benchmark price of an apartment was $715,800, and 2,697 were sold. There were 4,123 active listings, and an apartment listed spent an average of 28 days on the market.

ADVERTISEMENT

In March 2025, the benchmark price of a detached home rose to $2,034,400, nearly $335,000 more than in March 2021. There were 527 sales, way down compared to 2021. However, active listings were up significantly to 5,110. A detached house spent 35 days on the market on average.

Apartment prices also rose, though not as significantly as detached homes. Last month, the benchmark price of a Greater Vancouver apartment was $767,300 (+$51,500). There were 1,084 sales and 6,672 active listings, and an apartment listed spent an average of 28 days on the market...

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-housing-election-issue

[WarrenC12]

Are those numbers corrected for inflation?

[Burquitlaman]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It is pretty hard to think of any area in the western world where incomes have increased by the amount that Canadian housing costs have over the last 15 years. The problem is governments and developers built and sold projects to buyers that were never tied to Canadian incomes.

We can't have it both ways. Either the government gets in the business of housing construction and giving interest free loans to purchasers etc... or the market decides. The market doesn't want shared laundry, 1960's walk up apartments etc...

The market wants in-unit laundry, decent quality appliances and finishes, amenities in buildings, preferably concrete to reduce noise etc. That costs money to build.

If incomes went up the way they used to in the 50s-80s we would have much better affordability. Instead, most Canadians spend their time yelling at their TV because union x is negotiating for a wage increase that's 2 decades overdue.

I'm not sure how developers can deliver units at levels local incomes can support without going back to shared laundry, even worse finishes, removing amenities etc...

As far as land prices are concerned, I want the non-lower mainland folks to visit some of the more dense areas of the LM. Heck, here in Burquitlam, a suburb, houses are getting demolished 5 at a time. Chilliwack and Langley may have land, but from Port Mann to Squamish there is nothing.