Canadian Federal Election

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Nationalizing the housing supply sounds pretty communist to me.

A government that acts as a developer and landlord, competing in a free market with private developers and landlords isn't communism. It's very common in developed capitalist countries. And it's our best hope to make housing more affordable.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Pierre won't release his platform because if you add up everything he's promised it will have much higher debt than the Liberal one.

Nah. Just make optimistic assumptions about economic growth from tax cuts and you'll get much better deficit projections.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 43.6% (-0.1%), 196 seats
CPC - 38.0% (+0.4%), 122 seats
BLQ - 5.4% (N/C), 19 seats
NDP - 8.3% (-0.3%), 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, (-0.1%), 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, (+0.1%), 0 seats

- A little bit of a post debate jump for PP??? It may be too soon to tell.
- On the other hand Jagmeet's antics have done him no good.

Depends, this mornings Nanos has the NDP up 2 points nationally.

There does seem to be some narrowing happening this weekend, but each agency is showing is happening differently:

- Mainstreet currently has a CPC +4 (up 2 since last report). They're showing an almost 1:1 transfer of LPC votes to the Bloc since their previous poll. They're also showing the CPC pulling away in the prairies, where it was previously a tighter race.

- Nanos is showing a LPC +6 lead (down 2 since last report). Their tightening is happening all over the place:
a) QC, where they're noticing a dip in LPC support which is going to the Bloc, CPC, and NDP almost equally.
b) They see a 1:1 transfer of votes from the LPC to CPC in BC over the weekend.
c) Their abnormally large Atlantic Canada gap has tightened closer to the polling average.

- Liason isn't noting much of anything, though they are seeing a slight bump of NDP numbers nationally, which seems to be mostly carried in BC.


Joseph Angolano of Pallas data tweeted last night something which seems to indicate that they're also seeing some tightening. Frank Graves of EKOS was drunk tweeting real cryptic stuff which also seemed to indicate that they may be seeing more tightening than they already had seen, though that one is a little more dubious since you're just trying to decipher cryptic drunk tweets.

I don't think the tightening is enough to change who forms government, but if we start wondering whether a minority Liberal government is likely then it could be an interesting final week.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

"Carney's costed platform amounts to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 1.96% in the first year, falling to 1.36% in 2028-29.

The Progressive Conservative governments of Brian Mulroney and Joe Clark never, ever came close to a level that low.'

Big number scary. That's what it is. It works.

I'll happily criticize Trudeau's deficits because he insisted on spending on consumption (social programs). But Carney's proposal is basically what Biden did to make the American economy rebound hard from COVID: infrastructure spending, industrial support and defence spending.

Admittedly, it's a question of trust. One has to trust the Carney can wrangle the LPC to his agenda. I think he can. Simply because him saving them from destruction gives him certain credibility. But I can appreciate the views of others who are a lot more skeptical. And they have a right to be. I'm hoping a win sees a real changeover in cabinet with a strong preference for execution. Less ideology. More Anand. Less Guibeault.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Where is the bulk of that $15T in sovereign wealth? I would imagine a huge chunk of it is paper wealth in the form of home equity for middle class people over 40. So what, we are all supposed to take out a 2nd mortgage of 10% of of the value of our homes to pay a wealth tax? Where is the money for that going to come from because I doubt the banks can even fund that. Oh I get it, the government can go into more debt to loan us the money we get to give the government to pay off the old debt.

Financial assets: Pensions, insurance, and banks.

Pensions alone are ~$5T. Insurance assets are ~$3T (some overlap with pensions). These are locked in assets, which means an intervention referendum could be occur without people hiding assets like would occur with bank assets.

The point here is, it's a nationwide "writedown". Prices went up in all things because money was printed. That's a tax too. A huge one. In fact, the "Covid Print" was a 70% tax on Toronto housing, and a 30-40% tax on food. So a 10% tax doesn't sound so bad anymore, right?

A proper sovereign debt restructuring pulls money out of the system. Yes, this reduces nationwide wealth by 10%, but it also reduces prices with it. All prices. That strengthens the currency astronomically. It also allows for sustainable tax cuts, not fantasy ones like current parties are proposing.

[bodaggin]

People say government debt doesn't matter.

$45B/yr = Annual Federal Interest Payments
$45B/yr = Annual GST Proceeds

So every time you buy something at the store, the GST you pay is effectively washed down the drain on government interest payments. Now does it matter?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Where is the bulk of that $15T in sovereign wealth? I would imagine a huge chunk of it is paper wealth in the form of home equity for middle class people over 40. So what, we are all supposed to take out a 2nd mortgage of 10% of of the value of our homes to pay a wealth tax? Where is the money for that going to come from because I doubt the banks can even fund that. Oh I get it, the government can go into more debt to loan us the money we get to give the government to pay off the old debt.

What's needed is to tax income from assets. Instead of income from work. You have a rental property that pays you $1000/mo? You pay $100/mo in taxes. And we use that to cut some low wage service workers' taxes by $100/mo. It's pretty crazy how we've normalized the idea that income from assets should never be touched. But income from wages are fair game. I guarantee you that if you go buy 100 apartments in China to rent out, they won't let you sit in Bermuda and cash cheques tax free. But we'll do that.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's needed is to tax income from assets. Instead of income from work. You have a rental property that pays you $1000/mo? You pay $100/mo in taxes.

It already is taxed. At your marginal rate (much higher than your 10%). You're spreading false info again.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Good point about the fixed wealth tied up in real estate.

That's the thing about "wealth." A lot of it is arbitrary, and isn't realized until it is sold. You may have a Vermeer hanging in your living room, but, how much is it actually worth? No one knows until it is actually sold! What are we supposed to do? Are we to have all our possessions assessed for their value on an annual basis so that their value can be estimated for taxation purposes??? What if the assessment is $1.5M, but, when we sell it the next year, the selling price is only $1.3M. What happens then? Do you apply for a tax refund???

Just imagine the confusion and complexity of figuring this out.

Also, a wealth tax is really a form of double taxation. You made these purchases with after tax income after all. Do you really want this?

lol… then what’s gst, pst, hst, any fee or levy placed on every government provided service.

We need a luxury tax, it should apply to everything considered luxury. Instead we give rich people rebates. And lower fees and rates. See electric car initiatives, how many of the poors do you think took advantage of that?

People don’t need $10,000 toilets. Or $120,000 cars. Tax that shit.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

It already is taxed. At your marginal rate (much higher than your 10%). You're spreading false info again.

Remind us again, what that marginal rate is? Also, what matters is the effective rate. Not what rates are on paper. I can't create shell corporations in the Caribbean to dodge income taxes. The guy who owns a hundred rental units probably can do that for his rental income.

And this reality is what a lot of working class people actually resent. They know in their bones the system is rigged against them. Telling them it isn't because they don't use the exact terminology is gaslighting.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

People say government debt doesn't matter.

$45B/yr = Annual Federal Interest Payments
$45B/yr = Annual GST Proceeds

So every time you buy something at the store, the GST you pay is effectively washed down the drain on government interest payments. Now does it matter?

Cool. So then we should simply not spend $200B on your North Korea fantasy. The budget will be balanced. Problem solved right?

But let me guess. You're okay with borrowing, as long as it's on your preferred priorities.

PS. Simplistic math like this is exactly what Donald Trump is using to justify his trade war. "Look how much Canada is screwing us with that trade deficit!"

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Remind us again, what that marginal rate is? Also, what matters is the effective rate. Not what rates are on paper. I can't create shell corporations in the Caribbean to dodge income taxes. The guy who owns a hundred rental units probably can do that for his rental income.

You're talking about offshore tax loopholes. I think 95%+ of people agree with you that these should be closed. (They're exploited less than I think politicians claim though).

On tax: Can we talk about the fact that the CRA spends $17 billion per year just to administer tax collection? Just to count the beans, audit, do returns, etc. That can easily be cut by $10b/yr via automation and a simplified tax code. Government wastes at extraordinary levels.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Cool. So then we should simply not spend $200B on your North Korea fantasy. The budget will be balanced. Problem solved right?

But let me guess. You're okay with borrowing, as long as it's on your preferred priorities.

You must have missed this post:
https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10413218&postcount=6365

My $200B military plan is fully costed. With a debt elimination and a permanently balanced budget. Zero borrowing.

My military plan is not to create North Korea. It's to prevent Ukraine.

Because nothing is worth anything if Canada gets Ukraine'd.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

You're talking about offshore tax loopholes. I think 95%+ of people agree with you that these should be closed. (They're exploited less than I think politicians claim though).

On tax: Can we talk about the fact that the CRA spends $17 billion per year just to administer tax collection? Just to count the beans, audit, do returns, etc. That can easily be cut by $10b/yr via automation and a simplified tax code. Government wastes at extraordinary levels.

I would bet a paycheque that your knowledge of tax administration is on par with your expertise on defence issues. Were you also an expert on infectious diseases during COVID, by any chance?

We're seeing in real time how well all these ideas are working out in the US with DOGE.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

You must have missed this post:
https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10413218&postcount=6365

My $200B military plan is fully costed. With a debt elimination and a permanently balanced budget. Zero borrowing.

My military plan is not to create North Korea. It's to prevent Ukraine.

Because nothing is worth anything if Canada gets Ukraine'd.

Cool. What are you giving up to pay for that fantasy with a balanced budget?

[Marty_Mcfly]

These are not publicly available, but since I'm a Mainstreet subscriber I have access to these: the first riding polls of the campaign, for the districts of Bay of Quinte and Therese - De Blainville

Always take riding polls with a grain of salt, they're wrong just as much as they're right. Very low sample sizes so huge margins of error. In 2021 Mainstreet's riding polls (via iPolitics) were more or less a coin flip whether they were right or not.

Polls did not re-distribute the undecideds for some unknown reason so I've done it myself using the formula that pollsters use. I will note undecided % for you all to see none the less.


Bay of Quinte (4/14 - 4/15, n=482, MoE +/- 4.5%)
w/ change since 2021 election

LPC: 46.5% (+9.5)
CPC: 39.5% (-0.6)
NDP: 7.5% (-7.8)
GRN: 4.5% (+2.3)
PPC: 2.2% (-2.7)

Undecideds: 16.9%



Therese - De Blainville (4/10, n=492, MoE +/- 4.4%)
w/ change since 2021 election

LPC: 44.1% (+8.9)
BQ: 33.6% (-7.3)
CPC: 16.3% (+5.3)
NDP: 2.5% (-4.8)
"Other": 3.6%

Undecideds: 18.4%

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Mister F

A government that acts as a developer and landlord, competing in a free market with private developers and landlords isn't communism. It's very common in developed capitalist countries. And it's our best hope to make housing more affordable.

As soon as someone trots out the “communism” card, they’ve lost me. Especially when they use it to refer to centrist policies.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Cool. What are you giving up to pay for that fantasy with a balanced budget?

Excellent question! Important discussion. Here's the line-by-line.

Current deficit is $62B. But, roughly $23B of that was a one-off First Nation lawsuit settlement.

So the actual deficit is roughly $40B/yr recurring. Here's what you cut:

$45B - Debt servicing costs. Wiping the debt eliminates these and balances budget itself alone.
$10B - Streamline CRA, simplify tax code. (From $17B)
$8B - Foreign Aid. Cut all.
$5B - Streamline Treasury Board (From $13B)
$7B - Misc streamlining in Depts of Immigration, Industry, Environment, and deleting pointless smaller agencies.

Total = $35B/yr surplus.

On day 1. And I never touched social programs. But, remember, I also funded $150B of corridors during the restructure, opening up $500B+ of NG potential. Translating to $100B+ of gov revenue. And I would also stop recognizing American patents. Opening another $500B to $1T in pharma, bio, tech, and manufacturing. Ripping these sectors from America's hands, adding another $100-200B of gov tax revenue.

So a budget surplus of $235B to $335B in 5 years with 0 debt. Increasing GDP by over 50% and rocketing Canada to the 5th largest economy in the world.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

As soon as someone trots out the “communism” card, they’ve lost me. Especially when they use it to refer to centrist policies.

It's also coming from someone who wants to directly impose a 10% tax on assets. The irony.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Wiping the debt eliminates these and balances budget itself alone.

Oh wow. Why didn't anybody think of that before?