Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

So far, at least on a local level, the campaign seems very quiet here in SJ. Not seeing much coverage of local candidates in either the TJ or CBC's local news website. At this point in the provincial campaign last fall our street had at least a dozen houses with lawn signs. As of this morning we have two.

Wondering if things are similar in other ridings?

Seeing quite a lot of posts about Wayne Long's signs being vandalized... the idiots can't even buy white spray paint.

I think ends up helping Wayne more than it hurts him

[ivegotaname]

An independent news channel for greater saint john would do wonders as long they cover everyone

[sailor734]

Had someone canvasing for Melissa Young (CPC candidate for SJ-Kenn.) at my door this morning. When I said I wasn't very happy about her being appointed rather than the riding members being able to choose at a nominating meeting her reaction suggested it wasn't the first time she had heard this.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Seeing quite a lot of posts about Wayne Long's signs being vandalized... the idiots can't even buy white spray paint.

I think ends up helping Wayne more than it hurts him

The vandals also seemed to have some difficulty spelling "genocide"..........

Probably speaks to their level of educational attainment.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The vandals also seemed to have some difficulty spelling "genocide"..........

Probably speaks to their level of educational attainment.

lmao, jesus, I didn't even see that. nice one. Makes me think it's possibly even a far right saboteur, because the yahoos that have hounded Wayne Long for the past two years definitely know how to spell genocide.


The dynamics are a lot different in Fundy Royal and Saint John-St. Croix this year, I have to hope the rural majority of these ridings see the writing on the wall similar to what happened in 2015. Quispamsis being added to the Saint John riding displacing the West Side is also going to be a very different dynamic, but it sounds like Wayne Long is getting tonnes of support in Quispamsis, and Rothesay.

The level of vandalizing going on with signs speaks to how highly polarized this election will be. This one is probably far left extremists, but there's also a lot of very, very salty ardent CPC supporters, and Wayne is getting like 10 signs taken out or vandalized every day. 😅

[Taeolas]

Here in Freddy, the campaign still seems fairly low key. Only 3 candidates are putting up signs. The CPC candidate had the signs out first, and the Green Candidate had a few small signs.

Last weekend the Liberal Candidate got some bigger signs up. Mainly I've seen them on Maple @ Ring road.

This weekend the Green Candidate has some big signs as well, same locations as well as along St Mary's street.

Havne't noticed any canvassing yet. I was also at the Market around noon today, and didn't seem to notice anyone there , despite it being a good (but chilly) day to be pressing palms with the public.

[sailor734]

Given the "genocide" graffiti I'm assuming that most of the vandalism to Wayne Long's signs in SJ is the work of the pro Hamas/anti Israel crowd? Are Liberal candidates in other cities getting the same treatment?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

lmao, jesus, I didn't even see that. nice one.

Being a diagnostic radiologist enhances my observational skills.

Radiologists are the detectives of modern medicine.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Being a diagnostic radiologist enhances my observational skills. Radiologists are the detectives of modern medicine.

I've followed a few instagram accounts that post scans and give people some time to discuss what they see wrong with them. It's always fascinated me. I get CTs/X-rays often for chronic renal stones so quickly run off to check out my latest result "tertiary observation texts" on the myhealthnb site. I think I'd be much better at something like that than patient-side stuff, if I'd not gotten into IT. Haha.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I've followed a few instagram accounts that post scans and give people some time to discuss what they see wrong with them. It's always fascinated me. I get CTs/X-rays often for chronic renal stones so quickly run off to check out my latest result "tertiary observation texts" on the myhealthnb site. I think I'd be much better at something like that than patient-side stuff, if I'd not gotten into IT. Haha.

It's interesting to note that my non-medical interests include geography/cartography, architecture/design. meteorology and urban planning.

There is a certain commonality there.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I've followed a few instagram accounts that post scans and give people some time to discuss what they see wrong with them. It's always fascinated me. I get CTs/X-rays often for chronic renal stones so quickly run off to check out my latest result "tertiary observation texts" on the myhealthnb site. I think I'd be much better at something like that than patient-side stuff, if I'd not gotten into IT. Haha.

A radiologist really shows his value in the "incidental finding."

A low dose renal stone protocol CT for urolithiasis is an easy one to interpret (as long as you know your anatomy). Your friendly neighbourhood urologist will look as the CT scan himself and do pretty well at finding the stones and assessing for possible complications like obstructive hydronephrosis.

The radiologist however when he offers his official interpretation will look at the entire CT scan from top to bottom, looking at every organ system. We often find unexpected things that could significantly impact medical management and/or prognosis.

For example, the most common way that kidney cancer is discovered these days is as an incidental finding on a CT scan done for another reason. These cancers can be discovered years before they become symptomatic, and thus can be treated with a simple partial nephrectomy before it becomes metastatic, thus making it a curable disease.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Something that I've done for the 2019 and 2021 elections is doing weekly social media analysis of all Newfoundland candidates to try and identify trends, vibes, and momentum throughout a campaign. It's not used to predict winners (I'm not saying the best social media campaign period will result in a winner), but for the past few elections it's been a pretty good indicator of where one could expect tight races, underperformances, overperformances, etc.

Had I really paid attention to the last week Clifford Small bump in 2021 I could have likely predicted his surprise victory.

I update on Sundays over at https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10405275 if anyone would like to check it out.

[Taeolas]

Locally, here in Fredericton, the campaign seems pretty low-key. I've seen many signs up, all Green, Liberal or CPC and all at the usual locations. But some locations seem rather quiet all things considered. I guess it could be the size of the riding, you need to spread the signs out more to cover more ground compared to the provincial elections.

As far as yard signs go, it feels like the Liberals have a slight edge there, at least along the routes I usually travel. I've seen a somewhat surprising number of Green party signs too; but I doubt it will be enough to be a spoiler, just enough that the party should probably look to spend money here in the future to be the Liberal alternative next time.

Had to go up to Woodstock yesterday but didn't go around town much due to the weather. Only sign I saw was for the Conservatives at the end of the exit ramp from the TCH to the Old Houlton Road.

Also I'm just realizing now, I don't think I've been hearing as many political ads on the radio now. Listening to Bounce, I don't think I've heard any all weekend, nor when I was on the road yesterday. Maybe I'm lucky in avoiding them; but compared to a few weeks ago when "Carbon Tax Carney" was still running regularly, the silence is noticable.

[sailor734]

Infighting and finger pointing is starting to become public among conservatives. Harper's former communications head and 3 time Ford campaign manager accuses Poilievre and his team of "campaign malpractice" and of "blowing a 25 point lead".

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...cuses-poilievre-camp-of-campaign-malpractice/

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Two nights in a row

• Video Link

• Video Link

Nice to see the Maritimes get some more exposure in the election than usual. When the CBC was even hosting the National from Saint John, I was surprised to say the least.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Things are getting pretty heated here in SJ-KV and SJ-SC. There's now been a lot of reports about Conservatives putting signs on lawns that have not asked for them, and continued mass vandalism of Wayne Long's signs.

I guess, Wayne Long also did too good of a job getting rid of Trudeau, like Pierre Poilievre did, and now the CPC base in Greater Saint John hates him even more, because Mark Carney stands a good chance to win a majority.



Saint John-St. Croix is really going to be a riding to watch... notable spoiler could be Gerald Irish, who was the Green party spoiler to David Alston in Saint John East, who was one of the Liberal party's best candidates for MLA in Saint John, but who narrowly lost to the PC's Savoie by 34 votes. I'm sure John Williamson is very glad Mr. Irish decided to take the plunge into Charlotte County politics this year, all the way from East Saint John, but I think this race will be much more of a two way race than the NB Provincial election was.

Still, I think Karen Ludwig has very solid chance to to beat Mr. Williamson like she did in 2015. I think if she got a visit from Premier Susan Holt... it could really help her get a bump in what could end up being a very close race.

Even more interesting, is John Williamson's extreme pandering to the "Save Lorneville" Cause.



Compare this to how many of our conservative members have described the Lorneville situation. lol

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

If Mrs. Ludwig is to win SJ-St. Croix she will need to run up the margins in West SJ and places friendly to Liberals such as St. Andrews. John is popular in the rural areas of the riding and people here are tired of the Liberals and their 10 years in office. A visit from the premier would probably help in West SJ. Ludwig has been getting some help from people such as Pepitas-Taylor from Moncton and provincal minister Pat Finnigan

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Docere

Liberals polling at 65% in Atlantic Canada - looks like there will be a red sweep there like in 2015:

https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-liberal-party-holds-a-commanding-lead-across-atlantic-canada/

Will this surge in support transfer to flipping some of the remaining swing ridings?



There remains some very close ridings in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick... along with the Central Newfoundland riding.

A full red wave ala 2015 is unlikely to happen, but I could see a scenario where Tobique—Mactaquac and Fundy Royale are the only one or two ridings to be won by the CPC in all of Atlantic Canada.

The way Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Hampton all went red in the provincial election last fall shows how practical Maritime voters can be when the writing is on the wall, and I could see this playing out the same way in these swing ridings.

At the end of the day, voters see the benefit of electing an MP that is very likely going to be part of a majority government.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Liberals were even polling this high in 2015?

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

If Mrs. Ludwig is to win SJ-St. Croix she will need to run up the margins in West SJ and places friendly to Liberals such as St. Andrews. John is popular in the rural areas of the riding and people here are tired of the Liberals and their 10 years in office. A visit from the premier would probably help in West SJ. Ludwig has been getting some help from people such as Pepitas-Taylor from Moncton and provincal minister Pat Finnigan

She will absolutely need strong support from the West Side to have a chance, along with getting more people out to vote in rural areas that haven't bothered voting in years, because of the "deep blue" perception of the riding.

What it will ultimately come down to, is is Ludwig can convince enough would be NDP and Green voters to vote Liberal this time, to take the riding back from Williamson. In a majority situation, which is the most likely result according to the polls, Ms. Ludwig is the far better choice for the riding in terms of federal funding, federal projects, etc... and I think a lot of voters do get that... and tariffs and trade remain top priorities for voters in Saint John-St. Croix, both urban and rural. I really don't want to see West Saint John get dished because our MP is part of the opposition. We'll still get money for the Port, of course, but I don't think John Williamson is going to be as effective in lobbying for federal funding and federal projects in the riding, as Ms. Ludwig would as a member of a majority government. Hope enough voters see it that way before election day.

[Taeolas]

My parents live in Woodstock so they are in Tobique-Mactaquac. And from what Mom's saying, it would be a really tough nut to crack. Tory-Blue runs deep there (It avoided Holt's Red wave after all), and mom said she's hearing the standard refrain comparing Carney to Justin and saying it's just more of the same.

There's no doubt they'll vote liberal when the election comes; but they are drops in the buckets compared to the Conservative roots that run through that region.

On election night, if that riding is anywhere remotely close, then it won't bode well for PP on the national scene.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Liberals were even polling this high in 2015?

I don't know exactly where the polling average was in Atlantic Canada in 2015, or what the polling agencies were seeing the night before the election, but the Liberals got 59% of the vote in ATL during the 2015 election.

Right now the polling average has them around 54% of the vote so it's close. Depending on the polling agency, there's anywhere from a 30 point difference between the LPC and CPC to only a 10 point difference.

The big difference between 2015 and right now is that the CPC got a whopping 19% of the Atlantic Canada vote in the 2015 election, resulting in the Liberals having a 40 point advantage. At 19% of the vote, the CPC were really in contention for absolutely zero seats, and it was quite obvious they were not going to win anything as soon as results started coming in.

Right now, the polling average has the CPC around 34%, which is up a little over 3 points from the 2021 election. That's a fairly significant amount of support, which would indicate that they are in contention to hold seats and/or pick up seats depending on the circumstances. It'll come down to:

a) where the liberal bump is concentrated (is it uniform? Is it more pronounced in urban areas? More pronounced in Liberal-friendly districts?)

b) where the collapse of the NDP vote has more impact (clearly urban seats; rural areas have much lower NDP voters historically, so less of them to shift to the Liberals)

c) Is CPC support concentrated in its own areas of strength? (Likely not in urban areas, but places like the CPC-friendly seats in NB are likely seeing less of a LPC bump than in say Central Nova)

---------------

EDIT: You got me curious, the Atlantic regionals in the final poll for a couple of agencies prior to the 2015 election.

Nanos
LPC: 53%
CPC: 20%
NDP: 20%

Forum
LPC: 59%
NDP: 23%
CPC: 15%

EKOS
LPC: 59%
NDP: 20%
CPC: 18%

Ipsos
LPC: 48%
CPC: 24%
NDP: 21%

Leger
LPC: 51%
NDP: 28%
CPC: 19%

Angus Reid
LPC: 54%
CPC: 22%
NDP: 14%